Germany

[MickeyPaul]

I notice Germany's odds just keep on falling. Fucking pissing me off. They'll be around evens by the time I get sorted.

edit: every vid on youtube where she dances has been removed - just saying

[Gavster]

Originally Posted by MickeyPaul

edit: every vid on youtube where she dances has been removed - just saying

Now if they could get Jamiroquai or some coked up piss-head to dance alongside her, she'd look more normal. Can't fault the song, but to say she's not a natural dancer is an understatement.

[squallsquall]

Shortening!

[MickeyPaul]

I give up. 8/1 now @ bwin I see

[Beanie]

Dont understand the fuss on this at all, bar British punters liking the song and betting accordingly. Dont see it outscoring the ballads with the juries, and dont see it it being popular enough in the televote in enough countries - it wont even register in a lot of them.

At current odds I'll be laying the knackers off this for top 4.

[squallsquall]

I think it's top3 personally - but then again, my taste isn't represetative

I really don't see it finishing top5 as it stands now, maybe top10 though.

[Beanie]

I quite like it too...It's the darling of the betting forums at the moment but I dont really see that being reciprocated amongst ESC voters.

[MickeyPaul]

The fuss, for me personally at least, is that it's something rather refreshing when compared to almost everything else. No other song sounding like this one so it stands out quite a bit and I find myself playing it more than any other so far. It's still Germany though and I doubt I'll find anything to interest me betting wise now. I'll need to wait and see I guess.

edit: added a new vid to first post as all the rest removed and it sounds like a live version. S'not bad. A lot wobblier though. Sounds like she's bobbing around too much.

[Beanie]

I guess my problem with it is the reason you like it then

Refreshing yes, different yes, let's call it 'quirky'(both her and to a lesser extent the song), and I cant remember anything quirky ever doing particularly well, certainly not troubling the medal places. British punters warmed to Bosnia 2008 in a similar sort of way(songs arent similar but something strikes a chord with me) and that did pretty poorly, and probably would have done even worse if juries were involved.

Probably going to be one of those that we will have to disagree on right up until the contest - seems a lot of them this year!

[MickeyPaul]

Is this not quite 'mainstream' sounding though? That cockney style I've heard a few times - I said Lily Allen as it's the only one I can think of but I'm sure there are others. It's cockney-German here but you know what I mean? It's why I was thinking it's probably not that quirky at all but really current and charty 'n' stuff and with a decent voteability factor. Not that it matters much to me now as I was looking for faaaaaaar chunkier odds.

Oh ffs! 2nd fav with bwin now @ 6.50 - nooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!! Why does God let shit odds for enjoyable Eurovision songs happen!!??

[Gavster]

"Cockney-Germany" The Fuhrer will be so proud

[squallsquall]

Layed this one pretty heavily now... both for winner and top4. It keeps on shortening! What's up?

[Beanie]

Mainstream is the right word Mickey, agreed there, but I dont think thats good news at all. Will have to dig out some examples but I cant think of any similar type or 'current' sounding song that has ever done well.

Me too squall, I think the market has gone bonkers - a few too many males falling in love with the girl imo! Gonna be a bad year for me if this does well - cant see it happening tho.

[MickeyPaul]

They've all been pretty appalling though from what I remember Beanie. I thought Turkey last year was pretty mainstream although that's Turkey. Even Azerbaijan was charty pop albeit with a few ethnic touches (how the fuck did that finish 3rd? No really. How?).

I would have liked this as a dark horse - around the 30+/1 region but even though I like it (in Eurovision terms!) she's not good enough to be in contention I don't think. Too wobbly in that apparently live version I added for starters.

I'll be fucking amazed if I have a bet this year to be honest. Maybe if we had the Ukraine girl singing for Slovakia.

edit: another vid of her dancing has appeared but embedding is disabled:

You Tube

You Tube

Man, I pure fancy her rotten. This comment made me laugh though: "is she retarded?"

[squallsquall]

I think this is what's shortening the odds:

European Hot 100 | Billboard.com

Straight into 9th on Billboard European Top100 (wieghted index on 16 European countries) is certainly nothing to be scoffed at... HOWEVER, pop music is quite a different genre. Also, eastern europe aren't as likely to like this as the Billboard countries, imo.