Bets Placed

[squallsquall]

That's pretty cool. I guess you can't combine "Not Qualify" with "Qualify", or bets between different semis?

[squallsquall]

Wow... I don't understand the British style Betfred goes with what on earth does all this mean:

Accumulator

Alphabet

Singles

Doubles

Trebles

Four-folds

Five-folds

Doublestakesabout

Heinz

Lucky63

Pontoon

Singlestakesabout



Help? I just want to place a regular multiple bet...

[Gavster]

Well I'd just stick with double, treble or accumulator. There is help on betfred's webpage.

And no, you can't mix markets.

[Beanie]

The problem with the accas and why they are so keen to take them though is that all the legs are related contingencies, and so each leg coming in reduces the chances of the others doing so.

For instance Belgium finishing top 10 @ 3.5 is a reasonable price on its own. But the price of Belgium finishing Top 10 given that Azerbaijan, Slovakia, Israel, Denmark and Croatia do is different, and the chances are reduced.

Having said that, many of the prices on the qualification bets look very good, so the multiplication on value factor negates the above.

[squallsquall]

Beanie, you and your boring maths!

Seriously, of course you're right, but as you say: with enough +EV on each bet, it's bound to be even more +EV on an accumulator.

Too bad my Mastercard isn't accepted by Betfred and Betfred isn't accepted by my VISA, as the transaction took long enough time for the odds to drop considerably. That didn't stop me from placing this bet though:

(To qualify)

Azerbaijan
Turkey
Israel
Croatia
Armenia
Denmark
Sweden

Odds @2.80 (circa).

[Radoslav]

Israel top 4 @ 2.52 Betfair... Huge bet for me here...

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by Beanie

3pts Israel e/w @ 9.00 with Skybet
1pts Israel to win Semi 2 @ 5.00 with Skybet

Reasoning in Israel thread...

Surprised to see the Skybet price still there so have bumped my bet up to 5pts e/w. That still equates to 2/1 for a top 4!

[Radoslav]

Beanie can you explain me is there any differance between each way bet in Skybet and sportingbet cuz in skybet i c it as 1/4 but in sportingbet 1/5 ...can you explain this differance 1/4 from what and 1/5 from what is this....cuz at skybet at the moment the odss for Israel each way are 8 in sprtingbet 8.5 ...But are they different bets or not ?

[Gavster]

Originally Posted by Radoslav

Beanie can you explain me is there any differance between each way bet in Skybet and sportingbet cuz in skybet i c it as 1/4 but in sportingbet 1/5 ...can you explain this differance 1/4 from what and 1/5 from what is this....cuz at skybet at the moment the odss for Israel each way are 8 in sprtingbet 8.5 ...But are they different bets or not ?

The way I read it is... With Skybet, you get a one quarter of the odds for a place, whereas with SportingBet, you get one fifth. By my calculations, Skybet is a healthier bet.

edit: That said however, Betfred are @ 2.2 for Israel to break into the top 4 and Betfair are 2.29. So if you don't think Israel are going to win, this is the better choice for me.

[Beanie]

Thats right - it means that the win odds are divided by 4(Skybet) or 5(SportingBet) to give the place odds.

So current prices:

Skybet 7/1...means that you will be getting 7/4(2.75) for top 4 for the place part of the bet.

Sportingbet 15/2...means that you will be getting 6/4(2.50) for top 4 for the place part.

So it depends how you want to play it...given that top 4 bets alone arent available at much over 2.20 then the odds from the two above look good, but that forces you to place an equivalent win bet aswell, so not really worth it if you dont think the 7/1 is a good win price.

If you are happy to have a win portion placed as well then Skybet is probably a marginally better bet than Sportingbet.

[squallsquall]

StanJames are 8.50 right now, with 1/4 for place (giving 2.875 for place).

Just called in a bet there... feel pretty slow though. I've dismissed Israel on "no-friendlies" grounds, but now feel they are a very good top4 bet if nothing else.

[Radoslav]

Last year Israel were awful and qualified to the final...and im not sure if the werent top 10....With this song this year Im quite confident they will get top4 ...Big support from the jurry...

[Mystro28]

After landing a nice each way touch last year on Azerbaijan last year at 16s Ive been keepin an eye on developments for a few weeks now

Been torn between Azerbaijan and Israel as the 2 most likely winners

From a punting perspective Ive decided Im gonna have a big each way bet on Israel purely because I think Azerbaijan are way too short a price to merit value

Performance wise Israel have the potential to steal the show with this one. Personally I think its a really good powerful song that can resonate with the jury if not all the voting public.

One other point that has been missed about this one I think is that the Israeli dude has the potential to land a good percentage of the female/pink vote which could be crucial

Love the forum nice work lads keep it up

[Gavster]

You're welcome Mystro! Like the analysis and you'll find many that agree.

Only issue against Azerbaijan not winning is the Bloc vote - Sqaull posted a link on the Sweden thread that showed just how strong the bloc vote is. Have a look! As for tips, there is some value in Croatia and Slovakia.

[pimpin4rizeal]

ive backed nice big ews on isreal and armenia
smaller ews on turks latvia and serbia
azaerbaijan doubled up wit brazil and argies in the w cup
lol ive gone euro crazy this year