What makes a Eurovision winner..?

[trickrick]

Ok chaps..To be fair I don't thnk I've watched this since Bucks Fizz stormed to the top with 'makin yer mind up', so to be honest I wouldnt say I'm a connosieur of such musical delights..

However a betting opportunity is a betting opportunity and as I gather that some of you have a good eye for a Euro winner, I thought I might chance my hand this year..

However I have no idea what I should be lookin for, what with the political and tactical voting..

So...As a novice, what are the credentials I am looking for in a Eurovision song winner..?

[AnothrSpacecat]

no idea, expect anything. there seems to be the start of a decent market on bf, i wonder if theyll go in-running on the night, ill send them an email to check

[AnothrSpacecat]

heres some info on the Belgrade Arena, looks quite a smart venue

Belgrade Arena - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia





my favorites are Latvia, currently 27.0 to back, could be a decent trading opportunity the night of the semi final, as id expect them to do well there

[MickeyPaul]

Beanie posted some great stuff last year which I'll try and find for you. On top of that, I always look for something that stands out a little from the rest without being particularly stupid or over the top.

[Beanie]

Eurovision is a huge event on Betfair Spacecat - they are in running for both the semi finals and the final - and both markets will be very liquid.

Aye there's lots of in depth threads from last year trick that we might as well drag back up to the top, and then add to with last years lessons.

I'd say the best place to start is to try and listen to the songs while disregarding your own musical tastes. Most punters will place bets based on the song they think is best, which given the broad demographics that vote on these things isn't really what the idea is if you are looking to make some dosh. They have a quick run through the songs, decide which they like best based on their British tastes, and fire their dosh on that. British punters and Eurovision voters are very different beasts.

The politics/geography card is a bit overstated IMO - its more to do with different cultural tastes in music. Eastern Euro nations vote for each other mainly because they have similar tastes in music, not because of an obsessive dislike for certain countries. Thats not to say geography doesn't play a part, course it does, just look at the greece/cyprus relationship, but its not the be all and end all, so worth keeping an eye on but not going nuts over.

Altho as an aside to that, watch out for countries with large expat communities. Turkey/Russia in particular have a bit of a head start on the other nations because of that.

Mickey always goes on about songs with something a bit different about them and he's right, there's heaps of eurovision songs that fall into the same old same old category. Verse, chorus, verse, chorus, bridge, key change chorus, all with the same generic chorus and bland lyrics. A lot of them are easy on the ear but seldom do well and can be a bit of a bettors trap imo.

Also, look beyond the song. Eurovision night is about more than that - its about characters, costumes, acts, the works, so always watch performances rather than just listen to audio.

And most importantly, the biggest help last year, is get access to the rehearsal performances in the few days before eurovision - they are widely published on many websites and its amazing to see how some songs which sounded superb in their national finals absolutely die on the eurovision stage, and vice versa.

Anyone who saw the Swiss entry's rehearsal last year knew just how bad it sounded live on stage, despite it being joint favourite, and sure enough they served up an absolute stinker and went out in the semi when they were silly odds of about 1.15 to go through.

Anyhoo, thats just for starters

[Beanie]

A few of last years threads - I'll try and update with a bit of what happened last year to put it in context...

---------------------------------------------------

My top 5 lessons from last year(slightly edited):

Anyway, top 5 lessons for next year:

a) rehearsals - watch em, bet based on em.

b) certain nations will always place well regardless of their song, purely as a result of large, well spread expat communities...in particular Turkey and Russia.

c) the idea that Eastern European nations might steal votes from each other allowing a Skandinavian power to do well didn't materialise, infact if anything Sweden's horrendous result suggests the opposite. Western Europeans vote for Eastern European songs, but not vice versa.

d) Latin sound(like many other more western Euro sounds) is definately out...Greek song was as textbook a latin/medittereanean song as you might find, yet was trounced by a wierd mix of Eastern Euro craziness.

e) Novelty songs v epic songs...still inconclusive with Ukraine running Serbia close...pop/chart tunes still coming a tired third. Return of the epic ballad this year with Serbia, altho Greece's failure with the most epic of ballads a couple of years ago suggests that while traditional chart ballads might struggle, the Eastern Euro ballad(with home country language and traditional instruments) could be a force to be reckoned with in years to come.

[Beanie]

Politics Thread

Thats the politics thread if you wanna see who tends to vote for who.

Eurovision Statistics

Some stats there.

I also did a thread last year which still makes sense in my head - in that last year there was only really one semi decent Skando entry in Sweden. There were quite a few decent Eastern European entries - Bulgaria, Serbia, Bosnia all threats - and so the logic was that if geographical voting does exist, then having lots of decent songs down in Eastern Europe would split the Eastern Europe block vote, and only one decent song in Skadi land would concentrate the Skando vote, and make it all the stronger.

It never quite happened like that and I can only think it was down to the Swedish song.

Would also say its pretty important to judge every songg on its merits rather than try and fit it to certain 'Eurovision criteria.' Before last year it was widely thought that if your song wasnt in English you wouldn't do well...infact 3 of my main pointers before last year were non ballads, in english, and some sort of stage act. Serbia was a serbian ballad with no costumes and no act...and I think it represents another shift of traditional Eurovision values with the increasing influence of Eastern European tastes.

[Beanie]

The 'One Of A Kind' Theory

That could still hold some water I think...will revisit it this year.

[trickrick]

Cheers Beanie & co....Interesting stuff and looks like its worth 'gemming up' on...

[DAN DAN]

Originally Posted by MickeyPaul

I always look for something that stands out a little from the rest without being particularly stupid or over the top.

That's when you don't sleep through it all that is.

Beanie is your man for Eurovision though, follow his advice and you won't go far wrong.

[MickeyPaul]

The maths of Eurovision voting by.... errrm... not Beanie.

BBC NEWS | Magazine | The maths of Eurovision voting

[Beanie]

And thank god it isn't either. 80% of it is absolute tosh(IMO.)

Sure there's a political voting, cast iron 12 points traded and the like to some degree, but it's importance has been hugely overplayed recently, mostly due to Terry's crying foul every year. The cultural point is so much more important IMO.

Let's be under no illusions, the UK won't finish bottom(or very close) because of some pre-determined political bias, it'll do so cos it's a ridiculous song to send to Eurovision. Until we vote in something decent, or at the very least, original(or atleast be given the option by the BBC - any of the 6 finalists in MYMU would have been trounced this year) then we get all we deserve.

[MickeyPaul]

Should I have read it first?

He was probably paid thousands for writing that too, Beanie. Ehhm.... you weren't planning on leaving us were you? Beanie? Hello?

[MickeyPaul]

2007 Winner. I remember thinking this song was really, really, dull. Never fancied this at all but I don't recall noticing how good she/he could perform. And it's pretty good. Not quite up to Portugal 2008 standards (no way) but good nonetheless.

I've evolved since 2007 (1 net year = 1 squillion real years). The power of a good performance should not be underestimated. Or a shit performance for that matter (and there were plenty of those in the semis). I guess it's a real bonus if it's one of those countries that falls within the political, geographical, numerological, theological bias thingy mabobby. Bastards.

[youtube]DVLINmPsrLY[/youtube]

[MickeyPaul]

And never underestimate the ability of Eurovision fans to vote while under the influence of alcohol and drugs. This is fucking dreadful. Lordi. I don't remember hating this as much as I am right now. Bloody hell. HOW???!!!!! Ah well. Bodes well for some of the shit about this year. Kill me?

[YOUTUBE]PdbDNL5oqCs[/YOUTUBE]