The Final

[Beanie]

Dum dum dum!

I'll post the finalised draw up a little later on once the qualifiers from tonight have picked their starting slots. We've seen most of the performances now so there shouldn't be too many surprises left.

[Beanie]

01 Romania Romanian, Italian Nico and Vlad Pe-o Margine de Lume On the edge of the world - -
02 United Kingdom English Andy Abraham Even If - - -
03 Albania Albanian Olta Boka Zemrën E Lamë Peng We put our hearts at stake - -
04 Germany English No Angels Disappear - - -
05 Armenia English, Armenian Sirusho Qele Qele Come on, come on - -
06 Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnian Laka Pokušaj Try - -
07 Israel Hebrew, English Boaz The Fire In Your Eyes - - -
08 Finland Finnish Teräsbetoni Missä miehet ratsastaa Where men ride - -
09 Croatia Croatian Kraljevi Ulice and 75 cents Romanca Romance - -
10 Poland English Isis Gee For Life - - -
11 Iceland English Euroband This Is My Life - - -
12 Turkey Turkish Mor ve Ötesi Deli Insane - -
13 Portugal Portuguese Vânia Fernandes Senhora do Mar (Negras Águas) Lady of the sea (dark waters) - -
14 Latvia English Pirates of the Sea Wolves of the Sea - - -
15 Sweden English Charlotte Perrelli Hero - - -
16 Denmark English Simon Mathew All Night Long - - -
17 Georgia English Diana Gurtskaya Peace Will Come - - -
18 Ukraine English Ani Lorak Shady Lady - - -
19 France English, French Sébastien Tellier Divine - - -
20 Azerbaijan English Elnur and Samir Day After Day - - -
21 Greece English Kalomira Secret Combination - - -
22 Spain Spanish, English Rodolfo Chikilicuatre Baila el Chiki Chiki Dance the Chiki Chiki - -
23 Serbia Serbian Jelena Tomašević and Bora Dugić Oro Hora - -
24 Russia English Dima Bilan Believe - - -
25 Norway English Maria Hold On Be Strong - - -

[Beanie]

I'm not gonna go crazy on the final betting - try to land a top 10 for Israel at big odds and maybe a couple of small punts elsewhere.

I honestly believe we can count a lot of these songs out...will probably lose the eventual winner at the first cut here but you've gotta start somewhere.

Get Rid:

Romania - this was a contender pre-show, but loses out for 2 reasons. The vocals were very very weak in the semi, and the draw isn't particularly helpful(no 1).

United Kingdom - It's not a Eurovision song. Period.

Albania - the song itself could probably be a Eurovision winner, but the stage performance and her lack of much stage personality(she is only 16 tho so excusable) let it down. Might outdo expectations tho.

Germany - shocking breathy nonsense - could trouble the UK for the bottom spot.

Armenia - Again, on another day the song could have been a Eurovision winner, but her vocals are very weak and I cant see her making the needed improvement by finals time.

Finland - All the Nordic countries are through for the first time in a long while, and that could be bad news for them. Sharing out the Western European/Nordic vote between 5 will weaken them all, and as there isnt a standout among them, that alone should be enough to prevent any of them challenging. Songwise, there isn't much Eurovision about this one.

Croatia - Will attract it's fair share of votes, and is perhaps overpriced to make the top 10, but otherwise isn't outstanding in any way and won't attract widespread support.

Poland - Inoffensive ballad, but the vocals aren't that strong and I don't see where the wow factor is coming from on this one.

Iceland - See Nordic point.

Latvia - I think this will actually fare better than however it did in the semi - it'll find a far more receptive crowd in a saturday night audience and as no other Balkan nation made it, will dominate those votes. Still, not enough to win.

Sweden - See Nordic Point.

Denmark - See Nordic Point. And its mince!

Georgia - seemed to qualify safely enough, but the vocals aren't 100% and the song is very ploddy.

France - I love the song, but France just can't count on support from anywhere, and with the dodgy live backing singers, this isn't going anywhere fast.

Greece - Every year the Greek entry is ramped to the high heavens on Eurovision forums, messageboards and polls, so looking past most of that, I don't see how her vocals can deliver a winning performance. The choreography is very good, but the vocals are a bit quiet and weak, and the song is simply a standard pop effort and not enough to carry her to the win.

Norway - see nordic point.

---------------------------------

And that leaves the winner from...

Bosnia and Herzegovina
Israel
Turkey
Portugal
Ukraine
Azerbaijan
Spain
Serbia
Russia

More on that later - any feedback appreciated!

[Beanie]

This article goes along with my thinking that having all the Nordics through weakens their chances, and makes a good point about the opposite for the Balkan bloc which has seen a lot go out:

In the final of ESC ‘08, 25 countries will perform, but 43 will vote to decide the result. Research has shown us that significant voting patterns exist between certain nations. It is hard to prove whether these are due to diaspora voting, similarities in musical and cultural taste, or just neighbourly friendship. But these voting patterns do exist.

What is going on?
Three voting blocs can be seen, where significantly more points are shared than with other countries. Data analyst Dr Derek Gatherer names them as follows:

BALKANS: Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Turkey, Albania, Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Hungary.
EAST EUROPE: Russia, Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia, Poland, Belarus, Moldova, Romania
NORDICS: Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia.

So how will this affect ESC ‘08?
If all bloc members compete in the final, they will swap high values of points. But where fewer take part, the bloc’s votes will be focused on fewer countries. So the potential for increased scores is greater. This year, the final looks like this:
Voting Bloc
Bloc Members
Voting in Final
Bloc Members
Competing in Final
Bloc Scoring

Potential

Balkan Bloc
12*
6
x 2.00

Eastern Bloc
10*
7
x 1.43

Viking Empire
8
6
x 1.33



* Assumes Montenegro joins Balkan Bloc

+ Assumes Azerbaijan and Czech Republic join Eastern Bloc

So, with many Nordic countries through to the final, the Viking Empire may suffer as its shared votes are spread out. The Eastern Bloc is in a similar situation. In the Balkans, however, six members have already been eliminated, so the remaining countries will benefit from a greater share of the points. Will we be back to Belgrade in 2009? Things may not be so clear… The Balkan Bloc is slightly complicated, with two centres: one around Greece and another around Serbia, Croatia and FYR Macedonia. We will have to see how this plays out.

According to bookmakers, the favourites after the semi-finals are Russia, Ukraine, Serbia, Greece, Sweden and Armenia. Perhaps bloc voting history tells us that Serbia or Greece may rise above Russia and Ukraine this year. Outside these voting blocs, there are 13 other voting nations, and 6 competing countries. Therefore, if the rest acted as a bloc, they could be the strongest group! Some other countries benefit from relationships with a voting ‘partner’ (e.g. UK and Ireland), but not from a larger bloc which can result in a significantly improved total score. Some nations have no statistically significant two-way relationship with any other nation. These are:

The Loners: Portugal, Malta, Monaco, France, Israel, Switzerland and Germany.
France and Germany receive automatic entry to the final as part of the ‘Big-4’, but this year Israel and Portugal have earned their place among the rest. Could Boaz upset the odds and return the contest to Israel, ten years after Dana International’s victory?
Portugal is perhaps Eurovision’s most unlucky country, having participated 40 times and never finishing above 6th. Can Vânia Fernandes change bloc-voting history and take the contest to Lisbon for the first time?

Of course, all these statistics take no account of the individual entries themselves. We shall have to wait and see!

[Beanie]

So here's how it goes:

Romania:

[YOUTUBE]8bc0qnne3mk[/YOUTUBE]

UK:

[YOUTUBE]owxHwDzB4U0[/YOUTUBE]

Albania:

[YOUTUBE]CG_fUcuRoI8[/YOUTUBE]

Germany:

[YOUTUBE]iusptz7TGcI[/YOUTUBE]

Armenia:

[YOUTUBE]WFN-jLRhg_A[/YOUTUBE]

Bosnia:

[YOUTUBE]dxWl29xESnE[/YOUTUBE]

Israel:

[YOUTUBE]V2eNU2Vh1es[/YOUTUBE]

Finland:

[YOUTUBE]fyOFgwYtHFY[/YOUTUBE]

Croatia:

[YOUTUBE]mUNpyIGllNs[/YOUTUBE]

Poland:

[YOUTUBE]h6nKs8limSs[/YOUTUBE]

Iceland:

[YOUTUBE]FaIXIzcvPZ8[/YOUTUBE]

Turkey:

[YOUTUBE]L18mLM53mZU[/YOUTUBE]

Portugal:

[YOUTUBE]772BwKsl9nM[/YOUTUBE]

Latvia:

[YOUTUBE]XDMgeYy80NQ[/YOUTUBE]

Sweden:

[YOUTUBE]tt6GuBat3h4[/YOUTUBE]

Denmark:

[YOUTUBE]C5KdpUWp7-E[/YOUTUBE]

Georgia:

[YOUTUBE]YHN8Y9tX2Do[/YOUTUBE]

Ukraine:

[YOUTUBE]d3AJGLQ7bKs[/YOUTUBE]

France:

[YOUTUBE]m-VuK-av7gw[/YOUTUBE]

Azerbaijan:

[YOUTUBE]_0cE5hIOQeQ[/YOUTUBE]

Greece:

[YOUTUBE]GX9BaIGpdsc[/YOUTUBE]

Spain:

[YOUTUBE]rlGIoZvUT0o[/YOUTUBE]

Serbia:

[YOUTUBE]z_gU5UFV95c[/YOUTUBE]

Russia:

[YOUTUBE]3v0FB9NRhjA[/YOUTUBE]

Norway:

[YOUTUBE]KUnr7Rh4oNc[/YOUTUBE]

[Martens]

Portugal all the way!

amazing song, but i dont know if will survive in the middle of nowhere, outside any support bloc

zero chances for me to win the trophy are some of the favourites :

Russia, Serbia, Turkey or Armenia, none of them will win, and i am 100% sure

i go with portugal, if not because of blocs, then is greece ukraine or sweden

israeli song will fight to survive in top15, i changed my mind when i heard it again,

see you

[DAN DAN]

Beanie isn't Latvia a balkan country, not nordic?

The territory of Latvia has been populated since 9000 BC with the proto-Baltic ancestors of the Latvian people settling on the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea around the third millennium BC (3000 BC).^[1] By 900 AD, four Baltic tribal cultures had developed: Couronians, Latgallians, Selonians, Semigallians (in Latvian: kurši, latgaļi, sēļi and zemgaļi), as well as the Livonians (līvi) speaking a Finno-Ugric language.

Population of Latvia

If it is balkan then there is a lot of support and as it is quite different then it gets lots of votes whereas the rest of the balkan entries blend together and spread the vote. (Ukraine last year? Very odd song that did very well)

The fact that it has qualified must make it a contender

[AnothrSpacecat]

i would say its certainty that latvia is baltic and ukraine isnt!

ive no idea where to turn now, shall be back on tomorrow evening to play a or 10

[Martens]

latvia as balkan! hehe obviously it isnt

however, the wolves of the sea is very rythmic song, one of the best this year

but i dont see the song to enter the top 5

something between 6-12 in my opinion

very strong candidate is ukraine i repeat along with greece

sweden may surprise and win the trophy, if scandinavian countries dont share their 12's to more than one song, that is swedish

Portugal is the best song of eurovision2008, but i am afraid is not enough to win according to beanie's bloc analysis

[Beanie]

In terms of voting blocs Latvia/Lith/Estonia are usually lumped in with the Nordic mob as they trade votes to a certain degree, usually more than the baltic states do with more southerly countries.

[Beanie]

A supposed leak of the Irish televote result from the other night - results look fairly plausible:

12 Poland (getting 33% of the total vote)
10 Netherlands
8 Russia
7 Israel
6 Norway
5 Azerbaijan
4 Greece
3 Belgium
2 Bosnia-Herz.
1 Armenia

Good to see Israel nice and high there - Bosnia a lot lower than I would have though tho.

[DAN DAN]

No surprise that Poland is top, sure it will all the ex pats. Like Turkey doing well.