Semi Final 1 In Running Thread

[kompressaur]

I was actually meaning i had a semi erect cock Spacecat. I wont go into anymore details as it all feels a little sick now

I think their both on Israel to qualify Spacecat and i aint sure i agree. Looks like realistically only 2 places up for grabs tho stranger things have happened. interest bets only for me when i pick them

[MickeyPaul]

I most certainly did not young man as well you know! I think I made it very clear how much I needed them to qualify.

I fancy a bit of Bosnia e/w @ 10/1 - still the one that sticks out the most for me and worth a wee something.

[AnothrSpacecat]

i know. ill be on them too but with 20 quid max. might lay ireland to qualify too

10/1 cant be for the bosnians to qualify surely! must be outright winner? market on betfair has finally picked up a little, ill go see whats on offer to me

[Beanie]

A lay of Ireland for me too Spacecat - lovely

Originally Posted by kompressaur

Looks like realistically only 2 places up for grabs

What you on about Komp? 2 places?

[Beanie]

Bosnia I can't make my mind up on Mick - I think it appeals more to a Western audience really - not sure the Eastern Euros will go for it...but then again maybe thats exactly what a song needs...Bosnia will always get their fair share of Eastern Euro votes from their neighbours, so something which appeals to the other half of Europe is perhaps perfect for broad, sustained support?

Maybe.

[AnothrSpacecat]

I've done it. These include returned stakes..

BACKED Israel with £20 @ 2.22 to win £44.44

LAID Ireland to a £20 liability @1.69 to win £49.00

My account has dropped down by £40 for now, you can see for yourselves the only shitty possibility is if Israel dont qualify and Ireland do. If both go out I'm up £9, if both go through I'm up £4, then of course I could be up £50 on the night if it all goes to plan

[MickeyPaul]

Just reading that Laka fella (Bosnia) is one of the most popular artists in his homeland. I actually see it as appealing quite strongly to both east and west, Beanie. It has the eccentricity and weirdness wrapped within a catchy and energetic pop song which I think easties and westies alike will embrace.

The easties love a bit of wacky don't they? I thought they did. But I don't think it's overly wacky.

The 10/1 is for a top 3 place, spacecat. Each-way 1/5 1-2-3

[AnothrSpacecat]

people in eastern europe generally have a shite sense of humor so anythings possible. im going to wait till these semis are out the way before i weigh in for the main event

[Beanie]

Like Spacecat, I'm not getting big numbers either way until after the semis as its a bit of a lottery with the draw - you can pick out some cracking value and still have it destroyed just by the pure bad luck of getting a rotten final draw. Of course it works the other way with getting a good draw, but it just adds an uncontrollable variable into the mix.

The other option would be to go for an odds against 'Top 3 in the Semi' punt and then move on the outrights afterwards.

[MickeyPaul]

I'm waiting before seriously committing too spacecat although I intend to have a few quid here and there on some fancies (which I don't even know yet) within the next few minutes. Trying to think of the ones I've liked so far (or least hated) and Bosnia is one.

Turkey too easily falls into the 'one of the least annoying' category for me and they always do well. I made the mistake last year of fancying them to do well from the beginning then ditching them at the last minute due to their slimy, horrible singer sliding his tongue across his teeth in the video. It really messed with my mind and I couldn't handle backing it.

Ehhhm.... I'm fucked if I can recall what esle hasn't overly annoyed me. The 'noo na nay' lady. Forget which country that is.

[Beanie]

Thats the Serbians Mick, altho they're one of the heavier favourites.

I don't really like the Turkish entry this year but there's so goddam many of them throughout Europe that it doesn't have to be a strong song to do well...like you say, just stick up a safe, fairly dull, inoffensive entry, and they'll sail into the top 8 or so, no problem.

[AnothrSpacecat]

im pretty committed tonight for an event like this, i couldnt see myself having more than £5 -10max per country in the final, if i lose both bets tonight i wont risk anything, just had an ok afternoon and fuck it, its a laugh aint it

[AnothrSpacecat]

do the previous stats back that up beanie?

[Beanie]

The Turkish point?

Let's see - 2.7m in Germany, 3/4 of a million in Bulgaria, nearly half a million in the Netherlands, 270k in France, 200k in Cyprus, 250k in Austria, Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Greece etc all with decent Turkish communities.

I think the important thing with expat communities is to remember that even though their total %age of population might be small, they are x times more likely to vote than anyone else, because for them its possible to vote for your 'own' country, unlike everyone else.

[MickeyPaul]

I'm just looking at my voting stats from 2003-2007 (I'm not 100% this is correct). But I'm seeing Turkey's finishing positions as: 1st 4th 13th 11th 4th