Semi Final 1

[Beanie]

Gimme a sec...

------------------------------

Ok...running order as follows - only nations taking part can vote.

1 Montenegro Stefan Filipovic Zauvijek volim te - -
2 Israel Bo'az Ma'uda Ke'ilo kan - -
3 Estonia Kreisiraadio Leto svet - -
4 Moldova Geta Burlacu A century of love - -
5 San Marino Miodio Complice - -
6 Belgium Ishtar O julissi na jalini - -
7 Azerbaijan Elnur Hüseynov and Samir Javadzadeh Day after day - -
8 Slovenia Rebeka Dremelj Vrag naj vzame - -
9 Norway Maria Haukaas Storeng Hold on, be strong - -
10 Poland Isis Gee For life - -
11 Ireland Dustin the Turkey Irlande, douze pointe - -
12 Andorra Gisela Casanova - -
13 Bosnia & Herzegovina Elvir Lakovic Laka Pokusaj - -
14 Armenia Sirusho Qele Qele - -
15 The Netherlands Hind Your heart belongs to me - -
16 Finland Teräsbetoni Missä miehet ratsastaa - -
17 Romania Nico & Vlad Mirita Pe-o margine de lume - -
18 Russia Dima Bilan Believe - -
19 Greece Kalomoira Secret combination - -

Germany and Spain also vote in this semi.

[Beanie]

[YOUTUBE]fxKWILM6XcI[/YOUTUBE]

[Beanie]

10 to qualify - 9 by voting, 1 by back up jury.

Righty ho.

Will start by counting some out straight away...

Due to a poor draw and just god awful songs, Estonia, Moldova and Belgium are gone before we start IMO.

I'm highly sceptical of the chances of the small central European nations too - Andorra and San Marino have no traditional allies, and Andorra failed to get out of last years semi final with a more fancied song. They are both towards the middle of the semi and it'll be touch and go whether either can get enough support to make it. San Marino could go close but I'd suggest neither will quite do enough in what is a very tough semi final.

The Netherlands too, altho it isnt the worst song, lack any strong friendships in this semi, have traditionally struggled for votes, and are sandwiched among a lot of strong acts.

Let's get the prices up for the rest...

1 Montenegro - 3.65 - Looks about right - good starting slot but nothing good about the song.
2 Israel - 2.26 - Yet to make my mind up on that one - had written it off but rehearsal is strong.
7 Azerbaijan 1.67 - Seems to have support in the polls but a strange choice of song.
8 Slovenia - 1.77 - Rehearsal was very poor, will need to improve given the dodgy starting slot.
9 Norway - 1.64 - Catchy little song but nothing inspiration. Should be solid enough to qualify here.
10 Poland - 2.06 - well presented and sung effort - not sure.
11 Ireland - 1.55 - Tough qualifying spot - this might just struggle.
13 Bosnia & Herzegovina - 1.30 - funny ditty. Should qualify but I'll probably avoid at those odds.
14 Armenia - 1.08 - Looks nailed on.
16 Finland - 2.18 - Clumped in with the contenders, this will really struggle for votes.
17 Romania - 1.27 - good song, well sung, and a strong starting slot. Sails through.
18 Russia - 1.06 - No problems.
19 Greece - 1.20 - Its the type of song that can be vulnerable but starting slot should have it safely though.

Might aswell stick the others in I guess...

Andorra - 2.30
San Marino - 4.20
Belgium - 2.82
Moldova - 2.74
Estonia - 3
Netherlands - 3.35

[Beanie]

At the moment I have the 10 qualifiers marked down as:

2 Israel Bo'az Ma'uda Ke'ilo kan - -
7 Azerbaijan Elnur Hüseynov and Samir Javadzadeh Day after day - -
8 Slovenia Rebeka Dremelj Vrag naj vzame - -
9 Norway Maria Haukaas Storeng Hold on, be strong - -
10 Poland Isis Gee For life - -
13 Bosnia & Herzegovina Elvir Lakovic Laka Pokusaj - -
14 Armenia Sirusho Qele Qele - -
17 Romania Nico & Vlad Mirita Pe-o margine de lume - -
18 Russia Dima Bilan Believe - -
19 Greece Kalomoira Secret combination - -

[Beanie]

So potential bets...altho all need more consideration...

Lay Andorra to qualify @ 2.30 - the type of song that tends to struggle, and Andorra dont have many friends around here. Looks a short price for a song thats gonna be tough to pull off live.

Lay Ireland to qualify @ around 1.60ish - not made my mind up on this one yet. Im not sure the silliness quite suits a semi, and its tricky to see where the support comes from. Not many western or predominantly English speaking nations in the voting.

Israel to qualify @ 2.30+ - this all depends on hearing another rehearsal or two...but it did come across very well, and after the weak Montenegran opening song, this could stand out a little in an otherwise weak beginning.

Slovenia...either to qualify or not - if they dont improve on current performances then its deffo 'not', but the song has big potential so if they can iron out the problems then it could be sailing through.

Poland...currently around evens...I'm coming down on the 'qualify' side so far.

[likesadabble]

Pretty much agree with you in all of the above Beanie. Ireland is a tricky one, im swaying towards the fact that it wont be qualifying. It generated a little buzz when the song was announced, however this chatter has died down considerably over the last few weeks.

I would on the other had fancy Andorra to maybe sneak through. Im silly to ignore the fact no one likes them, but that "boom boom boom" is just to good..

Im also tempted by Poland at just above evens. The rehearsals looked not bad at all.

[Beanie]

I do quite like the Irish entry, and I've laughed at virtually every one of his interviews, but its just gonna be lost on the rest of Europe. A large amount of the punting market is made up by the UK for this event, those that 'get' Dustin, and it does look like his prices are far too short as a result.

Andorra I might not quite lay, I'm not sure yet. It's got heavy support in the polls(for what they are worth) so you might be right...unless it shortens in towards evens I could give that a miss.

[MickeyPaul]

If Israel doesn't qualify I'm never coming back to Eurovision. I should probably check out all entries first but there's easily enough quality there to get through. I can't not have something on that. Cheers, Beanie. Unless.... nah. It will. Easy. Ish.

[Beanie]

Righto, bet numero uno placed...

8pts Israel to Qualify @ 2.46 with Betfair

[kompressaur]

cracking stuff Beanie. I will just make all the 'talked about' countries linked to their thread. Should help us.

[MickeyPaul]

I'm sorry to ask but can someone tell me the ones I should be watching first. As usual I'm way behind and would rather start with your main fancies.

I've done... errrr. fuck. A few but just list some for me please. Thank you.

[kompressaur]

man ive nuked the thread Mick

edit: fixed. ill go link some more.

[Beanie]

Have a listen to the video on the thread to get a quick flavour Mick.The 'different' entries in this semi are Azerbaijan, Ireland, Bosnia, Finland, and Romania I suppose, all with different levels of appeal. Those are the ones that will provoke most of a reaction.

The rest are all either shit or the usual nonsense, some quite good nonsense, the others just the usual formula and sound rehashed again.

And then Israel of course

[MickeyPaul]

Cheers, Beanster. I hope you know the fact that I'm convinced Israel is a 100% qualifier has the butterflies going in my stomach to such an extent I may well puke? I very rarely display confidence in a bet publicly and I now remember why.

I've only heard Ireland on that list btw. Bugger. Smoker me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast.

[Beanie]

Ive looked at it a bit more today and have a few more reasons to be cheerful(and one other not to be.)

In 2005 Israel also had a Hebrew/English song(they did in 2006 aswell but it was nothing like 2008...2005 was) - a woman with a similar type of song - and they qualified from a bad semi final draw that year - a lot trickier that year too as it was 10 from 25.

The negative is that a lot of the countries that scored them highly in that one aren't eligible to vote for them here...altho there are quite a few who did aswell so its not much of a negative.

And also, lets not forget that even with a few negatives, its 10 through from 19...and given some of the dross in this semi it really really should make it.

Aye I'm convinced too. Never in doubt