Glentoran are a crazy price of 9.40 on betfair having lost the home leg 2-1. I cant type much as I'm still in shock at this price but it's a crazy unbelievable price on the Glens.
Yes Shels are better and yes the eircom league is stronger than the league north of the border but this is still crazy. Have no doubt that this will be a tight game and Shels recent league form was not great either
Would really have to look into it a bit more but Dinamo Minsk at 6/1 with Corals is surely too big a price?
The first leg finished 1-1, so they are evenly matched and it seems like a game that could go either way. Anyone have any information as to why they are so big?
The Anorthosis midfield is aged 32, 33, 35 and 38. However the 32 yo is Geoegi Kinkladze (ex Man City) and the 38 yo is Temui Ketsbaia (ex Newcastle). Pretty sure Kestbaia is player manager.
Anorthosis are not playing on their normal home ground as its not big enough, but they are expecting anything between 3,000 & 9,000 crowd for this one. They also have a pretty big motivation in that if they go through they play Trabzonspor of Turkey, a very big game for them if it happens due to Cypriot/Turk rivalries.
The odds were originally closer to 1.80 for the home win but they are now as low as 1.39 (Bet365) which doesn't look any sort of value to me.
The other interesting point is that there has been £146k matched on Betfair on this game, nearly £140k of that on the home win. This is a pretty big amount of money considering the next highest matched on one of todays CL games is £13k. Interesting
Personally I can't see why the price on the home is so short but I am also not tempted by the large away price.
On a side note, did anyone pick up on the betting on Egaleo v Vilinius in last weekends Intertoto Cup game? Vilinius started above 4.00 and were hammered into 1.70, Egaleo started approx 2.00 and drifted to 4.00+. Over £800k matched on Betfair, the vast majority of it on the away and Vilinius won 3-1.
cheers Crowie. Im still going round the net getting some views then i'll get it all together later
Quote:
Anorthosis has a golden chance to qualify to the next round of the Champions League after their 1-1 away draw in Minsk, last week against Dinamo. Despite the positive result for the Cypriots though, the local media have criticised the manager as well as the board of the club for not spending money on transfers this summer. Today, the club manager reported that this is the same team that last season played very nice football and won the league. The players and the board have asked their supporters to join them tonight and give them a boost towards the home win that would give them the ticket to the next round.
Anorthosis has failed to create many chances in their games so far and this might be the case today as well. Dinamo is not such a strong team to be able to score more than 1 goals away from home. Under 2.5 goals seems to be a good value bet.
The first game between this to sides finished 1:1 at Minsk.
Anorthosis will miss Nikos Fousos. He scored the only goal for Anorthosis at Minsk. But they have 5 equal strikers in the square and they can substitute him. The winner of this duel will play against Turkish side Trabzonspor. It is always a big rivalry between Turkey and Cyprus. So Anorthosis will be well motivated to reach the next round to battle against Trabzonspor. The game will not take place in the home stadium, because there isn’t enough space. About 10.000 fans are expected.
Anorthosis has old and experienced midfield players. Kespaia (38), Kinklabze (32), Nikolaou (33) and Haber (35). Dinamo Minsk has young and motivated players.
The first bookies offered 1.80 for home win, but the odds sank rapidly. Now they are about 1.45. Dinamo Minsk is a team with much tradition and from my point of view they are not as weak as the odds say.
Champions League An. Famagusta -vs- Dinamo Minsk by Gooner
*Cypriot side Anorthosis Famagusta returned from Belarus last week with a hard fought draw - and I feel that they can complete the job here. * Famagusta are worthy champions of Cyprus winning the league with a 19-5-1 record - there is a game missing due to a "abandoned" game which the local FA was not happy about and punished both sides. They had played a few friendlies as preparation, but were perhaps a little under-done going into the first fixture. They will be better here. Cypriot sides have grown stronger in the last 5-6 years and since 2000 they have played 19 home games in European qualifying rounds for a 9-8-2 record. The do NOT lose often at home. Dinamo Minsk is a famous old name and were last in the Champions League in 2000 - when they lost both games to CSKA Sofia - but they have earned another chance this season after winning the 2004 league with a fine 24-3-3 record. However, Belarus are in the middle of their 2005 season, and Minsk are not nearly as powerful, they sit in 11th place with a 4-3-5 record. I expect to see Famugusta go through to the next round, probably with a win here, although nerves are likely to play a part on the home side. With the first match ending 1-1 there is a risk of both sides playing defensively if the score goes to 1-1 here - as that result would sent the tie into extra time.
20-07-2005
Champions League
Harnarfjordur -vs- Neftchi Baku
by Gooner
FIRST LEG : NEFTCHI BAKU 2-0
Quote:
Well this price is a nice surprise as the home side is at a very good price to beat visiting Neftchi Baku.
Neither country has a great record in European competition, although there is little doubt that Iceland are the stronger footballing country at club level.
Neftchi Baku won their league via a play-off match after they were tied on points with Xazar Lankaran, winning the match 2-1 just a month ago (Jun 10).
In comparison Harnarfjordur won their league with a 6 point margin - finishing the 18 game season with a 10-7-1 record.
The Icelanders also have the advantage of playing "in-season" as the 2005 league is well underway and Harnarfjordur are making no race of it - winning all 10 domestic games played so far.
Of course the Icelanders don't have a GREAT record, but being drawn against one of the minnows should help, and losing 0-2 in the first leg will force a positive performance here.
But my underlying statistic is that football teams from Azerbaijan do not travel very well. Their sides have played 11 away games in European qualifying since 2000 and lost every one of them.
First game FC Haka won 1-0 . Game was very hard and Pyunik played very bad . Their mission was to go home with at least draw game but as their coach said 1-0 is not so bad result . At home Pyunik plays totally different and many people say to me that Pyunik is sure traveler to next round where Valerenga is their next opponent . For this game i hured that two new players are going to play one of them is African and other is South American . FC Haka came with their best squad and they will try to play very defensively . Also because FC Haka have only one goal in plus they will try to finish game with no goals and because of that i think that under here is very realistic . GL
20-07-2005
Champions League
Pyunik Yerevan -vs- FC Haka
by Gooner
We're back in action on Wednesday evening - and I'm going to start in Armenia when home side Pyunik take on Finn's FC Haka.
Regulars to the site will know that I'm a sucker for good statistics at the early stages of European competition, and although Armenian sides don't have a great record, Pyunik are changing that as they've been in the last 3 editions of this tournament and each time they've won their first round tie.
The Armenians have beaten sides from Finland, Iceland and Macedonia at this stage in each of the last three years, and although they lost the first match 0-1 they gave a good account of themselves.
Pyunik have won 4 domestic titles in a row, and appear to still be dominant at home, they are leading the Armenian league with a 9-4-0 record after 13 games, and have to be respected.
In comparison FC Haka are not so strong this year, and domestically they have a 6-7-1 record after winning 1-0 at bottom placed FC Jaro in the weekend, and are trailing in 3rd place in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.
FC Haka just do not score enough goals with just 20 in 14 matches, and 8 of those goals came in a 8-0 thrashing of Alliansi that is subsequently being investigated for match fixing by the new Chinese owners of Alliansi.
I said after the first round that if I could get Pyunik at better than even money (2.00) for the second match then I'd be on them ...
Well, the bookmakers have obliged - and I'm in as I feel that this is great value.
The Pick :
Pyunik to win at home.
PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :
Pyunik 58% - Draw 21% - Haka 21%
FIXED ODDS BETTING :
Get on PYUNIK at a very good value price.
HANDICAP BETTING :
Although Pyunik is available at -1/4 ball - the low price is not good.
It's better to ignore the handicap option here and go for the better priced win on 1X2 odds.
20.07 - Shelbourne FC vs Glentoran FC (By: MilosS)
I don't have anything special for this match only to say that Shelbourne is 99 % going to next round . I will tell you why . First of all Glentoran cames from Belfast (Northern Ireland) and their football is like England League Two ora even maybe like Conference ! I am not joking on this one but their football is so patetic and undeveloped and i don't see any reason why should they even score in this game . But i am not saying that Shelbourne is top European club but for Glentoran they are Gods . Shelbourne cames from Republic of Ireland and their football is surley better than north . Shelbourne best player ( i think that his name is ) Byrne is their top goal scorer is giong to play and i expect from him to score at least one goal . Shelbourne 99 % winners . GL
20.07 - Sheriff Tiraspol vs Sliema Wanderers (By: Pointman)
Well, not too much about this one, because result from the first leg can show you everything.
Sheriff is wayyyyy too much stronger then Sliema. Sherif have brought some good Romanian players, and with Romanian coach they are now team for respect. Alexandru Epureanu, Aliaksei Kuchuk (2) and Jorge Florescu where on the score sheet when they trashed Sliema in first game at Sliema ground 4:1 and i cann't see any other result here ,only Sheriff win, when Sliema play at Sheriff home ground.
So and bookmakers knows that and odds are too low, only what have I found as worthy bet is
Prediction: Over 3.5
Stake: 8/10
Odds: 2.05
Bookmakers: Marathonbet
First game between Latvian team and Macedonians ended very badly for Skonto 0:6, but I don't think it'll repeat... Anyway, I think it was very, very big accident and catastrophe in Macedonia.....and Skonto is on one level with Rabotnicki and other Macedonians clubs Yes, I'm not Skonto fan too, but in previous seasons they was the best team in Virsliiga (yes, judges always helped them and so on, so on..., but anyway) This season isn't very luckuly for them but still they are in TOP teams in Virsliiga whatever. But in other hand every footballer wants to show new trainer his skills and this could be a very good motivation to prove trainer, also supporters and others that Skonto is better team than Rabotnicki.
About Eshvort, new trainer after trush in Macedonia.... he knows Skonto players quite good because Latvian football is not alien to him.... Actually I think there could be under game because nobody will run and score, maybee Skonto will try to do somethink in first 30 min, and if score will be 0:0 after that under is for sure there, because both teams will start play without motivation....
Anyway, it's not good idea to bet on Rabotnicki........... Skonto won't lose 100%
Prediction:Skonto to win
Odds:2,00
Stake:10/10
Bookie:JokerBets
Here i must agree with tipster Kadrs. First match finished, you know how. Rabotnicki trashed Skonto 6-0 and i was expecting Rabotnicki to win for example 1-0 or 2-0 but 6-0 is just too much. Now i believe that Skonto wants revenge. For sure Rabotnicki is going to next stage but i think that bookies can take a lot of monaey from this game . Here is all question of morale . Rabotnicki players will for sure want to match finishes as quickly as possible and because of that there i see a chance for Skonto . I have nothing more special for this match and i wish you GL !
They seem a very very strong team at home and this Baku side by my research have lost EVERY game they have played away from home in Europe. I remember they put out Dunfermline last year so this represents a decent punt for me.
Its a sound pick Chips - I managed to get 1.80 this morning which has been backed all the way in, but still looks tempting.
I'm not holding out any hope after my other 'sound' pick Pyunik threw away a 2-0 lead earlier this afternoon, but the stats are all on our side.
Halfajaffacake are in the middle of their season, and have won every game in the league so far, whereas Baku are a good 5 weeks past their last league game. It'll be backs to the wall from the first whistle from the Azeri's, and a 1-0 loss will do them(and us) just fine.
Think the Anorthosis market was the dodgiest today Beanie. I couldn't make it out at all.
At KO there was over £360k matched on the game, 4 times as much as any other CL game today. Anorthosis started about 1.60 online, 1.80 in some places with bookies. Punted as low as 1.40 but come near KO had drifted back out to 1.85 or so. About £320k of the total matched on them. And they won 1-0.
Couldn't understand the drift considering the amount of money on them.
Champion League Quals - 19/20th July
