Europa League Final 18th May

[HastGill1]

FC Porto v Braga (Dublin)

Porto might have expected to be facing great rivals Benfica in the final showcase but another gritty display by Braga saw them come through another two legged European game against supposed superior opponents. To have knocked out Liverpool, Dynamo Kiev, Benfica is certainly an impressive achievement for such a small club, they also knocked out Celtic and Sevilla en route to qualifying for the CL group stages. More on Braga shortly.
FC Porto tied up the league campaign against Maritimo at the weekend winning 0-2 and ensure they went the entire league campaign unbeaten, an extraordinary record by anyone's standards. Their European campaign has been equally impressive and of their 8 away games in the Europa League this season they have won 7 of them, which is an important thing to consider in a match at a neutral venue, only losing 3-2 away to Villarreal in their last match having led 5-1 from the first leg.
They essentially rested the entire line-up at the weekend bar a couple of players and the first XI should be fully rested and raring to go for this one. I am writing this a few days in advance of the final so I'm not 100% on the team news but I would expect this to be the line-up:

Helton; Sapunaru, Rolando, Otamendi, Rodriguez; Pereira, Moutinho, Fernando, Guarin; Hulk, Falcao.

It's a fairly settled line-up that has served them well, although Falcao has had a spectacular season in the Europa League, overtaking Klinsmann as the record scorer over a season in the Europa League (then UEFA Cup) with 16 goals, Hulk is the star of the team. Most of their attacking play goes through him and with 34 goals this season its a game for him to show his undoubted quality. Porto play very fluid attacking football and can expect to monopolise possession for most of this one which will not be unusual for them or Braga, their passing is first rate and they score goals by the bucket load, 22 in the knockout stages of the Europa League (in 8 games) compare this to Braga's 6 in 8.

Everyone, including the bookies, knows Porto are obvious favourites for this one, but do the odds offer any value and are Braga being underestimated? Braga have undoubtedly got to this stage through their home form, they have actually only won 3 of their 8 game in the Europa League this season, all at home, and it is fair to say they are a defensive side who will rely on a counter attacking style and hope to nick one on the break. It's probably not an ideal final for either side considering how often they play each other. Braga don't score many, that much is obvious, and they will be looking to keep it tight in Dublin. Braga have endured a marathon season that started on 4th August against Celtic, and their results of late have been poor, they finished in fourth place in the league but have only scored once in their last four matches and indeed only won 1 of their last 8 games. They should line-up as follows:

Artur; Rodriguez, Paulao, Garcia, Silvio; Viana, Vandinho, Leondro Salino, Alan; Meyong Ze, Lima.

As I said I'm happy to be corrected on any potential injuries but in this instance it doesn't really matter as Braga will only play one way. In the Europa League this season they have averaged a goal every 120 minutes and conceded on average every 180 minutes, that tells you all you need to know. How much significance can be put on the recent results between the two? Well hopefully for Braga not much, they have won just 1 of the last 9 between the two sides losing in 7. As I said earlier Braga will be playing on the counter, they have does this successfully up to this point, Porto will have most of the possession and probe until they find an opening, this is nothing new for them and they have to do it virtually every week.
It comes down to how, or if, the first goal comes, if Braga get it they will be confident of seeing out Porto's attacks and hit them on the break, if Porto get it I don't think Braga will panic but it will throw them out of their comfort zone and the game plan will have to change slightly which will obviously suit Porto. An early Porto goal would be a major setback for Braga and if this happened it wouldn't surprise me to see a 2 or 3 goal victory as we have seen from Porto so many times this season.
Porto are certainly a side on the way up and have a winning mentality that will carry into this game, the Braga coach Paciência has said his team usually create 4 good chances a game and it will be whether they take any of these. 3 of the last 4 Europa League finals have gone to extra time interestingly, I personally don't think this one will go that way. Porto are too strong and while it is an incredible achievement for Braga to have got this far they look to me like they are running out of steam after a long season and recent results have been poor, they beat a self destructing Benfica in the semi but I think this is where the run ends. Porto are brilliant away but this may be more like a home game for them in the style it will be played out, I can understand why people may consider taking Braga on a 0AH or +0.5AH but I don't see Braga keeping out Porto, they may have to be a bit patient but I'm sure they will score at least 2 goals.

[B]Porto -1AH 1.9 -
Porto -1.5AH 2.37 -

As I have written this a few days before the game not all the markets are available yet and I will prob come back for a bit more, perhaps on a corner handicap or perhaps no goal before 28th min or similar, be back to update. On a side note Braga have only sold 4-5,000 of their ticket allocation and sent the rest back which is disappointing and a bit surprising for me, Porto easily sold out their 12,000 tickets and asked for more but I'm not sure what happened on that front.

[Bigkegman]

Nice right up HG.

I'm on Porto tonight as well. As you've already mentioned Braga will play defensive and hope to hit them on the break where as Porto is goals goals goals.

I was surprised to see 1/2 about Porto because I thought they could even have been shorter even although its a neutral venue. 5/4 with Lads -1 handicap looks tempting.

[BettingDonk]

I was going to BUY falcao total goal minutes @ 33 but I decided against it..

I think both teams will score.. Overs is a nice price but I would rather wait 15 mins or so and get on in-play around 13/8ish, maybe lay off at some point

Porto have had an incredible season (27W 3D 0L) but i think braga could cause them a few problems tonight..

Braga to score in both halfs @ 9/1 looks a decent punt... after seeing portos defence against villareal then braga are more than capable of scoring and braga to score 2 or more goals @ 5/1 also appeals

Porto 3-2 Braga @ 40/1

[BettingDonk]

Dreadful game.. one of the worst ive seen in a lon time.

Hopefullt that goal right before HT will open it up now braga need to score.

[FC Basher]

Originally Posted by BettingDonk

I was going to BUY falcao total goal minutes @ 33 but I decided against it..

What a donk,just joking,hope he dont get anymore,or even a hattrick

[BettingDonk]

yeah cost myself 10pts so far..

would'nt be surprised if this stayed 1-0 TBH.. dire game of football

[FC Basher]

Not watching it mate,noticed your bookings are going the right way in the other thread.

I was a spread betting fan,really need to rekindle that flame next season.

[BettingDonk]

yes bookings went as i expected them too... porto booked twice for time wasting in the final few minutes made me an extra £200

2 teams from portugal and a spanish ref the cards were never in any doubt..

have to say that was the worst game of football i have seen this season, it was fucking dire from start to finish and i missed hfield 2-2 b'mouth becoz of it

Ref played a massive part and was a total wanker from start to finish.. every fucking 30 seconds he is blowing for a foul, then rather than letting them play it quickly he makes them wait 20 seconds so he gets up the pitch before taking it.

half the fouls he could of let go and played on.. he was even stopping for fouls when the fouled team still had possession which wasted another 20-30seconds

to only add 3 mins at the end was a fucking joke considering the ball had been in play for a total of 17 mins out of the 45 in the 2nd half.

fucking hate games with spanish refs.. why uefa let spanish refs take charge of games is baffling.. they ruin every game.. only thing they are good for is cards

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by BettingDonk

fucking hate games with spanish refs.. why uefa let spanish refs take charge of games is baffling.. they ruin every game.. only thing they are good for is cards

I also hate games with Spanish refs, which is a slight problem when the main event I bet on is Spanish football And just think, the ones you get to see (unless you follow the lower Spanish leagues) are the cream of the crop, you can only begin to imagine the shite you have to deal with in the second division and below