[Beanie]

I'm having my first footie bet for quite some time and my biggest punt(max stake for the first time in 2 years) on Fiorentina.

Under normal circumstances I think the prices of 1.53 Fiorentina, 2.62 Rangers would be just about right, but there's a number of factors that I think make that Fiorentina price way too big.

Looking at the abilities of the two squads, and their form so far in this competition, then the above prices look correct, Rangers have been superb at not giving anything away both at home and away, and have knocked out a few handy teams en route. Fiorentina too have come through after a close tie with Everton and a superb performance in Eindhoven to knock out PSV.

But for me there are two main points that mark out the Fiorentina price as huge value:

- Rangers are running on empty, and have been for a couple of weeks. Their performance against St Johnstone at the weekend showed a team that is creaking under the strain of injuries, suspensions, and more games than any player would anticipate playing in a season, not to mention having to grind out another 120 minutes on Sunday.

The injuries and suspension are mounting up at the wrong time - Chris Burke was one of the few players who still looked able to give the team a bit of energy on Sunday, and due to injury will miss both legs. Ditto for Naismith.

You can easily point to the wins over Werder and Sporting as evidence and ask why cant Rangers do it again? Well of course they can, but Sporting were always going to be the one team Rangers could have beaten in the QF - I said as much after watching them against Bolton.

Werder was a stunning result, no doubt, but it was a fresher Rangers side back then, and also relied on a lot of things going their way. I'm not saying it wasnt deserved, but you can't rely on the away keeper literally chucking in 2 goals for you every match, and then the away side missing a glut of chances in the return, with your own keeper(now injured) having a blinder.

- And 2nd, the Rangers defence is as miserable as they come at this level, and should finally be found out.

Broadfoot, Weir, Papac, just about the worst defenders youll ever see in a European semi final, and they were lucky to be up against the dreadful Liedson and Diallo in the last round, and poor scottish attacks every week. Again they coped ok against Werder, but they were fresher back then, had a stronger midfield in front of them, and weren't up against the quality they will be on Thurs.

Now up against a far more experienced and better quality forward line in the likes of Mutu, Pazzini, Vieri and Montolivo, the complete lack of any pace whatsoever and the constant errors coming off the boots of Weir and Broadfoot will mean a torrid night.

There wont be much protection in front either - the first choice midfield of Ferguson and Thompson is missing, with Dailly and Hemdani the wrong side of 30 and unlikely to offer much energy going forward or tracking back.

Carlos Cuellar is quality, but is going to be doing 4 mens jobs if he's to keep Fiorentina out tomorrow night.

Thats enough unconstructed rambling...Rangers have scrapped their way this far, but too many injuries, too many games, and too tough an opponent, its a tie too far.

10pts Fiorentina to Qualify @ 1.53 with Betfred

I'd have the Italians down as going through atleast 4 in 5 times under these conditions, and the price looks massive.

[mrmuzeman]

Good luck with that Beanie, I cant comment properly cos I just dont really know anything about Rangers. But being an Everton fan I did see what Fiorentina are all about over 2 legs.

Basically they pwned us in Italy but we obliterated them at home. I was impressed with the Italy tie, I thought they looked really classy, we didnt have a sniff. At Goodison I thought we played as well as we possibly could we were awesome and at the end of the day still didnt go through, albeit on a cointoss shootout.

They didnt have Mutu available for either game though and I hear hes their main man goalwise. So thats a factor in Fiorentinas favour.

I cant really pass judgement on the merits of 1.53 though not knowing Rangers ins and outs.

[mrmuzeman]

Btw with outrights I think Zenit are good value at 13/2, they look like a really good side, I wouldnt rate them as big dogs against Bayern and no worse than 50/50 in the final.

[Beanie]

Cheers Muze - yeah Mutu's the main man - 2 goals away at PSV witha 30th yarder and a neat little finish. Up against 37 year old Davie Weir tomorrow night

I guess one of the other bonuses of this punt(especially in light of you saying Everton murdered Fio at Goodison) is that Rangers won't go for it at home - Smith will play a 4-5-1 tomorrow night and job 1(which I can't see them achieving) will be to keep a clean sheet and play very defensively.

You get the feeling Smith quite fancies a 0-0 at home as they got v Sporting which allows them to play counter attacking football in the away tie - never mind that with the amount of injuries and weary legs a 0-0 is gonna take another sterling effort, piching the away leg v Sporting is 10 times different from pinching the away leg at the Artemio Franchi.

Rangers ain't no Everton at the best of times, least of all now with so many regulars missing and the rest having played a couple of games a week for the last month and 120 mins on Sunday, and I just don't see Rangers coming away with anything better than a 0-0 tomorrow night.

Fingers crossed anyway, research done, punt placed, just hope its right.

I'd agree re: Zenit, not seen them but I talked to my mate last night who watched them v Leverkusen, both legs, and said they were the best team he had seen in the competition - that Arshavin is dynamite.

[mord]

Nordicbet have @1,55 Fiorentina to qualify..I´m in GL

[Beanie]

How did I miss that?!

Nice price Mord. Odds dropping a little - into 1.47 on Betfair.

[Beanie]

Bit of a non-event really tonight which was always likely - both teams quite chuffed with 0-0 and not risking much at all and neither deserving any more.

Price aint budged, and still looks far too big IMO - I've read comparisons with the Sporting game about 4 times already tonight, but as I say, you cant compare Sporting to Fiorentina on their home patch.

Anyway, will take that, onto next week.

[Beanie]

Goodness me, I don't know how, but they did it - fair cop lads Walter Smith seems to be a master at finding a way to win these days. That Zenit call was far the better Muze - they stuffed em.

Kirk Broadfoot in a European final...

[Beanie]

Zenit didnt even have Arshavin tonight either. What a performance.

Still, I reckon it could be a good match up for Rangers - not sure the Russians will like it up 'em and it'll be virtually a home match as half of Glasgow descends on Manchester

That said, I've read them incorrectly here and will just have a watching brief.

[MickeyPaul]

I have no idea how they keep doing it either, Beanie and I think it's fair to say this Ranger's rearguard can be like the keystone cops at times and are hardly known for their pace and mobility!

Once again though, I think it's more about the opposition not being good enough, clever enough or willing enough. Fiorentina looked so terribly, terribly ordinary in both legs and Rangers did a fair job of simply, 'getting in the way'.

I do kind of admire them for that though to be honest - the way they just keep on blocking and closing down around the penalty box and funnelling back and flinging themselves through the air. Fiorentina did show a bit more spirit 2nd half but still lacked the class I thought and some pretty poor finishing on show.

Overall, I have to agree. Kirk Broadfoot in a European final!?



p.s Only just seen this thread. Nice shout again, muze.

[kompressaur]

Are you....having a laugh? eh? Well im a fair weathered Rangers fan tonight. I saw Celtic fans cheer the penalties, i saw Suni muslims sit with shite. All worlds came together. bah everyone 'a bit dodgy' i met tonight mentioned me and my drinking. The papers can't have been kind but at least people were concerned which is a plus.

[Beanie]

On the one hand its absolutely grim to watch, and I utterly hate that such negative football actually works, but its what they have to do and fair play to them. In any sport you have to find a way to win, simple as that. Greece showed the way at Euro 2004.

I still think the price was a good one, I'd take it again if given the chance, as Rangers gave Fiorentina 120 mins to break them down and a team like that should have had the class to do so with some ease. As it was, like you say, they looked a little ordinary and nothing like they have in recent rounds.

[kompressaur]

I pretended i was on Rangers for the whole second half Beanie. 6/1 i was on. Never had a penny on it.