I'm having my first footie bet for quite some time and my biggest punt(max stake for the first time in 2 years) on Fiorentina.
Under normal circumstances I think the prices of 1.53 Fiorentina, 2.62 Rangers would be just about right, but there's a number of factors that I think make that Fiorentina price way too big.
Looking at the abilities of the two squads, and their form so far in this competition, then the above prices look correct, Rangers have been superb at not giving anything away both at home and away, and have knocked out a few handy teams en route. Fiorentina too have come through after a close tie with Everton and a superb performance in Eindhoven to knock out PSV.
But for me there are two main points that mark out the Fiorentina price as huge value:
- Rangers are running on empty, and have been for a couple of weeks. Their performance against St Johnstone at the weekend showed a team that is creaking under the strain of injuries, suspensions, and more games than any player would anticipate playing in a season, not to mention having to grind out another 120 minutes on Sunday.
The injuries and suspension are mounting up at the wrong time - Chris Burke was one of the few players who still looked able to give the team a bit of energy on Sunday, and due to injury will miss both legs. Ditto for Naismith.
You can easily point to the wins over Werder and Sporting as evidence and ask why cant Rangers do it again? Well of course they can, but Sporting were always going to be the one team Rangers could have beaten in the QF - I said as much after watching them against Bolton.
Werder was a stunning result, no doubt, but it was a fresher Rangers side back then, and also relied on a lot of things going their way. I'm not saying it wasnt deserved, but you can't rely on the away keeper literally chucking in 2 goals for you every match, and then the away side missing a glut of chances in the return, with your own keeper(now injured) having a blinder.
- And 2nd, the Rangers defence is as miserable as they come at this level, and should finally be found out.
Broadfoot, Weir, Papac, just about the worst defenders youll ever see in a European semi final, and they were lucky to be up against the dreadful Liedson and Diallo in the last round, and poor scottish attacks every week. Again they coped ok against Werder, but they were fresher back then, had a stronger midfield in front of them, and weren't up against the quality they will be on Thurs.
Now up against a far more experienced and better quality forward line in the likes of Mutu, Pazzini, Vieri and Montolivo, the complete lack of any pace whatsoever and the constant errors coming off the boots of Weir and Broadfoot will mean a torrid night.
There wont be much protection in front either - the first choice midfield of Ferguson and Thompson is missing, with Dailly and Hemdani the wrong side of 30 and unlikely to offer much energy going forward or tracking back.
Carlos Cuellar is quality, but is going to be doing 4 mens jobs if he's to keep Fiorentina out tomorrow night.
Thats enough unconstructed rambling...Rangers have scrapped their way this far, but too many injuries, too many games, and too tough an opponent, its a tie too far.
10pts
Fiorentina to Qualify @ 1.53 with
Betfred
I'd have the Italians down as going through atleast 4 in 5 times under these conditions, and the price looks massive.
UEFA Cup Semis - To Qualify
GL
Walter Smith seems to be a master at finding a way to win these days. That Zenit call was far the better Muze - they stuffed em.
.GIF "Thumb(1)")
