[Mrs. Smith]

Rennes - Dinamo
nice one, Rennes has to win with 3 goals margin, while Dinamo has "easy job", only two goal margin win for them. I'm sure that they will score, cause they can not be that unlucky all the time, played good against Basel, Brann, and HSV but, at the end of the game they get lost, and nerveous, and make stupid mistakes and usually lose the game, idiots.
Guy Lacombe is a new coach of Rennes, and reading the papers, it seems to me that they are more focus on french championship than on UEFA Cup. They not won in their last four European home games.
Dinamo is playing last game of 2007, which means that this is last, probably last game for Luka Modrić in Dinamo. Him to score is one thing I will put my money on, second, Ognjen Vukojević is 24 years young today, bastard and he knows how to score, proved it many times in recent games....

Modrić to score anytime @ 3,50
Vukojević to score anytime @ 4,00
Dinamo wins @ 3,30
over 3 @ 2,90

[Napoleon Solo]

I know everyone thinks the FIFA/UEFA rankings are a poor judge of how strong nations are, but apply them to UEFA club teams and you seem to get some sort of correlation. It'll more thank likely be totally disproved tonight, but I'm going to test my theory.

Group A
This group has totally followed the UEFA rankings, with the clubs from higher ranked nations beating those from lower ranked nations. I've ranked them via the difference in UEFA coefficient, a positive number meaning the home team should hold the advantage, a negative meaning the away team should.

AZ	Everton	39.379		68.54		-29.161
Nurnberg	Everton	44.364		68.54		-24.176		2	0	2
Larisa	Nurnberg	25.497		44.364		-18.867
Larisa	Zenit	25.497		36.125		-10.628		2	2	3
Zenit	Nurnberg	36.125		44.364		-8.239		X	2	2
Zenit	AZ	36.125		39.379		-3.254		X	1	1
Nurnberg	AZ	44.364		39.379		4.985		1	2	1
AZ	Larisa	39.379		25.497		13.882		1	1	0
Everton	Zenit	68.54		36.125		32.415		1	1	0
Everton	Larisa	68.54		25.497		43.043		1	3	1

Looking at tonights games both away teams should have the upper hand. I know Everton are sending an understrength team to Holland so a handicap bet may be in order, while Nurnberg should beat Larissa.


Group B

Kobenhavn	At.Madrid	18.575		76.891		-58.316		2	0	2
Loko Moskva	At.Madrid	36.125		76.891		-40.766		X	3	3
Panathinaikos	Loko Moskva	25.497		36.125		-10.628		1	2	0
Kobenhavn	Panathinaikos	18.575		25.497		-6.922		2	0	1
Aberdeen	Loko Moskva	30.5		36.125		-5.625		X	1	1
Panathinaikos	Aberdeen	25.497		30.5		-5.003		1	3	0
Aberdeen	Kobenhavn	30.5		18.575		11.925
Loko Moskva	Kobenhavn	36.125		18.575		17.55		2	0	1
At.Madrid	Aberdeen	76.891		30.5		46.391		1	2	0
At.Madrid	Panathinaikos	76.891		25.497		51.394

Group B looks a little more random, but on closer inspection the games which don't fit the pattern all feature Lokomotiv Moskva. Remove Loko and the system works again. In that case Atletico Madrid should win, whilst the Aberdeen v Kobenhavn game should be quite close, possibly bordering on an Aberdeen victory.


Group C

AEK	Villareal	25.497		76.891		-51.394
Mlada	Villareal	26.825		76.891		-50.066		2	1	2
AEK	Fiorentina	25.497		66.088		-40.591		X	1	1
Elfsborg	Mlada	10.541		26.825		-16.284		2	1	3
Elfsborg	AEK	10.541		25.497		-14.956		X	1	1
Mlada	AEK	26.825		25.497		1.328		2	0	1
Villareal	Fiorentina	76.891		66.088		10.803		X	1	1
Fiorentina	Mlada	66.088		26.825		39.263
Fiorentina	Elfsborg	66.088		10.541		55.547		1	6	1
Villareal	Elfsborg	79.891		10.541		69.35		1	2	0

Group C looks a bit more random, especially with the away teams supremacy. Fiorentina should beat Mlada easily enough, whilst a Villareal "Draw No Bet" may be the call against AEK.

Group D

Zagreb	Hamburg	10.708		44.364		-33.656		2	0	2
Basel	Rennes	23.85		53.656		-29.806		1	1	0
Brann	Hamburg	19.725		44.364		-24.639		2	0	1
Zagreb	Basel	10.708		23.85		-13.142		X	0	0
Hamburg	Rennes	44.364		53.656		-9.292		1	3	0
Basel	Brann	23.85		19.725		4.125		1	1	0
Brann	Zagreb	19.725		10.708		9.017		1	2	1
Hamburg	Basel	44.364		23.85		20.514
Rennes	Brann	53.656		19.725		33.931		X	1	1
Rennes	Zagreb	53.656		10.708		42.948

Again, this group looks very random, but remove the results of Rennes, who don't seem to have been trying very hard, and the system looks like working again. With this in mind a bet on Hamburg looks the way to go, probably best to avoid betting on Rennes though (or maybe even opposing them).

I'll post up some test bets for this, which I will be following with real money, after I've also looked at team news, etc.

[engineer]

I'm all on AZ. Dirty old Van Gaal should know what to do to win that game. At first I didn't like the odds but now I can put some money on home win.

Larisa should be capable of giving a performance to Nurnberg? No greek punters today?

[Napoleon Solo]

Originally Posted by Napoleon Solo

Group A
Looking at tonights games both away teams should have the upper hand. I know Everton are sending an understrength team to Holland so a handicap bet may be in order, while Nurnberg should beat Larissa.

AZ Alkmaar 2 - 3 Everton
Larissa 1 - 3 Nurnberg


Group B
Group B looks a little more random, but on closer inspection the games which don't fit the pattern all feature Lokomotiv Moskva. Remove Loko and the system works again. In that case Atletico Madrid should win, whilst the Aberdeen v Kobenhavn game should be quite close, possibly bordering on an Aberdeen victory.

Atletico Madrid 2 - 1 Panathinaikos
Aberdeen 4 - 0 Kobenhavn


Group C
Group C looks a bit more random, especially with the away teams supremacy. Fiorentina should beat Mlada easily enough, whilst a Villareal "Draw No Bet" may be the call against AEK.

Fiorentina 2 - 1 Mlada Boleslav
AEK Athens 1 - 2 Villareal


Group D
Again, this group looks very random, but remove the results of Rennes, who don't seem to have been trying very hard, and the system looks like working again. With this in mind a bet on Hamburg looks the way to go, probably best to avoid betting on Rennes though (or maybe even opposing them).

Hamburg 1 - 1 Basel
Rennes 1 - 1 Dinamo Zagreb

That's not too bad, Hamburg the only team letting the system down while opposing Rennes was the right way to go as well! May be worth keeping an eye on this when the European season resumes!

[MickeyPaul]

Super stuff there Mr Solo.

[Beanie]

V interesting stuff there Nap - may be onto something

[ONEDUNME]

Certainly can't argue with those results can you?

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Aye nice stuff Nap.

Big well done to Aberdeen. Quite great to have 3 Scottish clubs in Europe after xmas. Don't think i have ever witnessed that whilst ive lived.

Great second half performance too against a very stuffy Copenhagen side to beat.

[kompressaur]

UEFA Cup
FT AZ Alkmaar 2 - 3 Everton
FT Larisa 1 - 3 Nurnberg
FT Aberdeen 4 - 0 FC Copenhagen
FT Atletico Madrid 2 - 1 Panathinaikos
FT AEK Athens 1 - 2 Villarreal
FT Fiorentina 2 - 1 Mlada Boleslav
FT Hamburger SV 1 - 1 Basel
FT Rennes 1 - 1 Dinamo Zagreb
FT Toulouse 2 - 1 Spartak Moscow
FT Zurich 0 - 5 Bayer Leverkusen
FT Bayern Munich 6 - 0 Aris Saloniki
FT Braga 2 - 0 Red Star Belgrade
FT Getafe 2 - 1 Anderlecht
FT Hapoel Tel Aviv 1 - 3 AaB Aalborg
FT Galatasaray 0 - 0 Austria Vienna
FT Panionios 2 - 3 Bordeaux