UEFA Cup - 18/19/20th September

[allthethings]

UEFA Cup
Soccer - Hacken - spread +2 (+130)
for the regulation time held on Sep 20 at 9:45am [pending]

Hacken visits Spartak Moscow, which got bounced from Champions League play by Celtic on penalty kicks. Spartak Moscow sits first in the Russian Premier League, 7-2-1 at ome with a 21-10 goal differential. Total wins by 3+ goals in 23 league games and 12 domestic and European cups in 2007: 1. They beat promoted Kuban (from the Russia 1st Division, sitting in 12th place in Premier) 4-0 at home this August.

Hacken is a second-league Swedish club, currently sitting in 4th place in Superettan. Their record in this admittedly lower league is 13-2-9, and they have lost by 3+ goals zero times.

In European competition last season, where they had a good CL run and then lost to Celta in the UEFA Cup, Spartak played 12 games and never won by more than 1 goal. I don't believe that's their game, even if they can, and I believe this being Hacken's moment in European competition they will play their asses off. They beat Dunferline and KR to get here, two teams that aren't very good, but they managed a 1-0 away to KR and a 1-1 draw at Dunfermline.

[Bigkegman]

Dnipro are 7/4 still in Laddies shops but have been cut on-line

[Monty H.]

Cheers allthethings,
I remember that very well and you pointed it out then..
Good posting

Originally Posted by allthethings

I will be taking the dogs of +1.5 goals at even money or better, but I will wait until close to game time to see where the teams stand. So far I have been successful in every game day except one...teams favored by 2 goals occasionally put together the massive 5-0, 6-0 win...but more often they play just well enough to win...and sometimes they even lose points. As of right now my plays would be:

Hacken +2, +110 [@ Spartak Moscow]
Belenenses +2, +115 [@ Bayern Munich]
Erciyesspor +2, +116 [@ Atletico Madrid]
Anort Famagusta +2, +114 [@ Tottenham]
Metalist +1.5, +124 [@ Everton]
BATE Borisov +2, +112 [@ Villareal]

Close, but not quite there:

Uniao Leiria +1.5, -106 [@ Leverkusen]

For those of you unfamiliar with American pricing, +112 means a $100 bet would win $112...-106 means that you must risk $106 to win $100.

Now, I don't know whether this is a strategy that works better in the early rounds when there are fewer big names. But let me just run these results by you, from the First Round, first leg, 2006, all games in which, probably, the home teams were favored big (I don't have last year's lines, but bear with me):

Hertha Berlin 2, OB 2
Fenerbahce 2, Randers 1
Schalke 1, Nancy 0
AZ 3, Kayserispor 2
Eintracht 4, Brondby 0
Besiktas 2, Sofia 0
Marseille 1, Mlada Boleslav 0
Braga 2, Chievo 0

Here were all the wins by 3+ goals by home teams in the first round, first leg last year:

Eintracht 4, Brondby 0
Basel 6, Rabotnicki 2

All the home wins by exactly 2 goals:

Besiktas 2, CSKA Sofia 0
Braga 2, Chievo 0
Liberec 2, Crvena Zvezda 0
Partizan 4, Groningen 2
Livorno 2, Pasching 0

Now again, I don't have last year's lines, but I'd be willing to bet these home teams weren't favored by 1.5 or 2 goals.

If I have time I'll go back another year, but without lines I don't really know who the big home favorites were. I would not be betting the big teams to win in aggregate by 3+ goals.

[allthethings]

Adding one overs, considering a few others, but will wait and see how the day develops:

UEFA Cup
Soccer - Midtjylland/Lokomotiv Moscow - total Over 2½ (-105)
for the regulation time held on Sep 20 at 1:00pm [pending]

Midtjylland at home have 5 of 6 overs, Loko 5 of 8 away. Loko is one of the few Russian teams to play open games this season: In their last 20 league games, they have kept one clean sheet.

[allthethings]

So far not looking good, Hacken down 0-3 in 20 minutes.

Adding:

Soccer - Uniao Leiria - spread +1½ (-108)
for the regulation time held on Sep 20 at 10:15am [pending]

Leverkusen is not so great that this should be a runaway...I'd expect a very defensive game, with good chances of staying within the handicap.

[allthethings]

UEFA Cup
Soccer - Belenenses - spread +2 (+123)
for the regulation time held on Sep 20 at 12:00pm [pending]

@ Bayern Munich. I feel really lousy about this bet, especially given the Spartak score, but that probably is a good thing.

[allthethings]

Soccer - Dynamo Zagreb/Ajax - total Over 2½ (-104)
for the regulation time held on Sep 20 at 11:30am [pending]

[Super_Sammy]

Tottenham -2.5 looks value, thinks its time spurs gave someone a spanking and take some pressure off Jol.



Bloody Stuttgart let me down for a fortune last night.

[trickrick]

Just walked past a Ladbrokes shop - noticed it was still open so called in.. FC Basle are 11/8 on their coupon!! Stuck a few quid on them.. Online at Ladbrokes they're 4/7 !!!

[allthethings]

Felt like a very scary day on the pitch, so I feel lucky to break even.

Lost the first two dogs, 0-5 and 1-3, and then lost the overs in Zagreb-Ajax...won with the big dog Belenenses over Bayern Munich, 0-1, which was the one that scared me the most, and then doubled my bet on the overs in Midtjylland, where Loko Moscow just scored twice to make it 2-1...

I pulled the plug on the rest of the dogs because I'm leaving the house for the day and don't really have the stomach for it to be honest...that just may be something that should be used in the early rounds before the really top teams show up, I don't know. Uniao Leiria managed to stay within 1 goal until 80 minutes, but weren't technically a play anyway...so far the Big Dogs are 1-1 with 4 to play...two of the dogs are currently losing 0-2 and 0-1 at 45' and 30'.

[Super_Sammy]

Originally Posted by Super_Sammy

Tottenham -2.5 looks value, thinks its time spurs gave someone a spanking and take some pressure off Jol.

told y'all

[IsovitisGR]

5/5 for greek teams, excellent