The longer I'm thinking, the less I'm convinced in anything worth taking except already mentioned Hot Favorites...and I'm putting them together as
Blackburn
Nothing much to add...significant class difference.
Mypa lost three last game in their league with 0-9 goal diff.
Bad form,bad team, new coach - he can do nothing in a couple of days.
Standard @ 1.25 against mediocre Luxemburg team..consider it as a gift.
Brann
I expect another high scoring game and convincing HW.
Maccabi TA C'mon...Erciyesspor is just a Turkish Second League team, now faced with the fact that many players have left club.
CFR Cluj
is in a good shape now, but if I have to ban anyone from the list- it will be Cluj.
Dunno why...just don't trust East European teams.
Same story as for Rabotnicki today. Zrinski was a disaster in a first round vs. Partizan, concede 11 in 2 games...are they r4eally that bad??
Can't help much with the games of the Bulgarian teams tonight - all tricky ones.
The trickiest is definitely Omonia - CSKA. This could go each way. Home team will have big support from their fans and it will be harder for CSKA. Guests have many new players and are still looking for their gamestyle. They have some class and can give Omonia a performance, also they are always capable of scoring goal or two. Both teams played each other three years ago and after two draws 1:1 CSKA prevailed in ET.
So, the most probable outcome for the first game is again the draw, but both teams have chances to win it - I can say it's something like 35-45-25%.
Lokomotiv - Otelul will be another tied match, although home team should take advantage and sneak a narrow win maybe. I would take home win here at odds ~2.0 - you can still find that price at some bookies. Bwin had massive 2.10 and now it dropped to 1.65!!!
Besa v Litex will be the earliest of the three and it will be very hot in Albania. Litex are the favourites IMO, but they will be happy to draw the first game. Under is the most likely bet here.
GL all.
I'm quite tempted with the Over in the Basel v Mattersburg game tonight...both teams come from usually high scoring leagues which are on a similar-ish level ..also the Helsinki v Aalborg game is tempting for an Over to ...Still pondering though
The line on Helsinki is tempting, I agree, but Aalborg has a pretty good defense...their only big meltdown, in the 0-5 game a couple weeks ago, came after a 1st-minute red card. They play most games tight, conceding 1 usually. Add to this Helsinki a) has played very defensive so far in Cup, and b) comes from a poorer Finnish league, and I'd think this one has a chance to end 1-0 to the visitors. Just my opinion, who knows it could end 2-2, but for me there is too much of a chance for a low-scoring game to take it.
I thought the same about Basel, my book's line is O 3, +120. Mattersburg is an overs banker so far in Austria, because they score and concede, 2-1 and 2-2 and 3-2 very normal. Basel a little early to tell, but they had a good defense last season, were as likely to win 2-0 as 3-0, and often they had to get to 3 on their own. Given that I need 4 goals to win this one, I'll probably stay off it.
Yes Chatly, it is volim Celik ( I love Celik, one odl bosnian football club from Zenica )
Today i wll skip all favourites ( Blackburn , Standard, Brann, Rabotnicki , Maccabi, Cluj, Dnipro, Basel...) I dont say that all will not win today but i got a bad expirience with this CUP UEFA games, expecially in last two seasons..There is not a big money in this comepetetions and some teams try to got money from another resource knowing that will lose for sure in next round, or two rounds latter...
Arter research i will take some of this bets:
HJK Helsinki to beat Aalborg Odds around 2.50 on home win
Aalborg can not be favourite here in this game and odds on home team are pretty nice. Both teams started bad in domestic leagues. HJK have 4 wins, 10 draws and they lost just 2 games.(one from Tappare Utd wich leading in finish league).
Aalborg won only one game from 5 and drawed 2 and lost 2 ..They played three games away and lost two of them and drawed with Horsens.
So it shows that both teams are unpredictable. Home side must use this chance to win here if account to get to the next round...
Ekranas to beat Valerenga Odds around 3.35 on home win
Norwegian tippeligaen is of course stronger then Lithuanien but Ekranas is 3th in Lithuania while Valerenga is 9th in Norway. They won some games in last rounds and now have 21 points in 17 games but Valerenga is very weak in this season. Ekranas play very strong at home. They have 7-5-1 at home and lost just one game.
Valerenga will play with same team as in last league game against Stromgodset when won 2-1 away.
Valerenga is not favourite in this game. I see great value on home win..
Ekranas to beat Valerenga Odds around 3.35 on home win
Norwegian tippeligaen is of course stronger then Lithuanien but Ekranas is 3th in Lithuania while Valerenga is 9th in Norway. They won some games in last rounds and now have 21 points in 17 games but Valerenga is very weak in this season. Ekranas play very strong at home. They have 7-5-1 at home and lost just one game.
Valerenga will play with same team as in last league game against Stromgodset when won 2-1 away.
Valerenga is not favourite in this game. I see great value on home win..
Valerenga had an awful start, but there are a few encouraging signs. After really struggling to score they have four straight games (2 home, 2 away) with scoring two goals. They drew 2-2 against 3rd-place Stabaek away and beat 1st-place Brann 2-0 at home in the last four games.
Also i like this bets. I reall have not time to write reasons for this, but after researc i will try to take all this bets in single and make some combos with double chance:
Haka Valkeakoski - Midtjylland home win or 1x
Dynamo Minsk - Odense home win or 1x
Lokomotiva Sofia - Oteul Galati home win or 1x
Siroki Brijeg - Hapoel Tel Aviv home win or 1x
Tobol Kostanay - Groclin home win or 1x
Mika ashtarak - Petrzalka home win or 1x
That is my selections for today, of course with HJK Helsinki and Ekranas...I will look for more informations about this teams and todays games and make some combos and take some games in single for home win...
Valerenga had an awful start, but there are a few encouraging signs. After really struggling to score they have four straight games (2 home, 2 away) with scoring two goals. They drew 2-2 against 3rd-place Stabaek away and beat 1st-place Brann 2-0 at home in the last four games.
Stabek is also from Oslo so it was city derby..But Stabek played very bad in last few rounds and i think it will continue after "winter pause"...coz Stabek is not so big team in Norway and their posibilities are low..
Rune Lage (29) is injured for Valerenga but i dont have information did he played in last rounds..Valarenga away 2-1-5 (won over Lillestrom 1-0 where Lillestrom were very bad but had a lot of chances to win again, won over Stromgodstet 2-1 also in one kind of regional derby and drawed against Stabek in city derby)...Stromgodset and Stabek are very bad in last rounds and this results of Valerenga i dont take seriously..I watched Valerenga so many times and i dont bolive in this team..weak weak and weak..
Stabek is also from Oslo so it was city derby..But Stabek played very bad in last few rounds and i think it will continue after "winter pause"...coz Stabek is not so big team in Norway and their posibilities are low..
Rune Lage (29) is injured for Valerenga but i dont have information did he played in last rounds..Valarenga away 2-1-5 (won over Lillestrom 1-0 where Lillestrom were very bad but had a lot of chances to win again, won over Stromgodstet 2-1 also in one kind of regional derby and drawed against Stabek in city derby)...Stromgodset and Stabek are very bad in last rounds and this results of Valerenga i dont take seriously..I watched Valerenga so many times and i dont bolive in this team..weak weak and weak..
You may be right, but Lillestrom is 2nd-place team. So here you have a weak weak weak team that just has happened to beat 2nd and 3rd place teams, and draw with first-place team on the road. How lucky can one team be?
You have to knot that teams as Valerenga, Lyn Oslo, Stabek, Stromgodset and Lillestrom are from Oslo or from small cities around Oslo and this kind of games always seems as a small derby and always weaker teams try to do best in this kind of games..
That is reason why Valerenga beat Lillestrom and Stromgodset adn drawed with Stabek..
Also i was reading in their officiel web site that their coach Harald Aabrekk will make some small chances in team. For me, this small chances also can mean that they are not intresting in cup uefa.
For me away win is far far away and this is just 2.00.
Anyone any ideas on the At.Madrid - Vojvodina match. Read on a fan forum that the away side are going to put out a very, very defensive team. Maybe Under in Asia is an option. Theoretically the away side have absolutely no chance to qualify for the next round, so maybe they'll try their hardest not to get shot out of the stadium.
Guys, anyone got any info on the Rabotnicki match? They were 1/2 earlier in the week (someone suggested this was the bet of the night) but they're now 4/5 at Bet365. Is it still worth lumping on?
I also have a fancy for Young Boys (he,he) at home to Lens tonight. Anyone got any info? YB have been in decent home form of late, whereas Lens have made a slow start but its difficult to compare the relative merits of the two leagues. Anyone able to sway me either way?
Uefa Cup Qualifying 2nd Rd 1st leg 16th Aug
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Best of luck, I think, Komp.
