22nd June: Spain v Italy

[kompressaur]

Spain (2.6) Draw (3.2) Italy (3)

[keemanan]

I'm no fan of the Spanish midfield or defence but Italy without Pirlo are vulnerable. He's been the linchpin for the azzuri in this tourney and a huge miss. Gattuso to a lesser extent is a big out too.
I fancy Spain to score a couple whereas I f I were a barn door I wouldn't be too worried seeing Luca Toni come over the horizon!
All B.Munich players have been awful , Ribbery had a great season but looked awful for France, Germany too look clueless ans Toni must be used to biiger nets or something. Will they stick with him or shake it up?
I dont care , I'm on Spain

[trickrick]

Well a very trappy match..

Still, I think the price on Italy is probably where the slight value lies..

The current World Champions are underdogs against the perennial World Cup/Euro Championship flops?!

[rcgills]

Spain have got a real inferiority complex when it comes to playing Italy, they seem to think they're jinxed in some way. Although the overall H2H (including friendlies) is pretty even, Spain have only beaten Italy once in a competitive match, and that was in 1920. They did beat them in a friendly a few months ago though, with a fantastic goal from David Villa.

I agree with Trick, it's a very tough one to call, but although I'll be cheering on Spain, I'd say the value lies with Italy.

Keem, when you say you're not a fan of the Spanish midfield, do you mean in general, or based on how they've played this tournament? I'd agree they've been below par this tournament, but Xavi and Iniesta are fantastic players, and Senna is under-rated in my opinion.

[Betfly]

Preview from BZ

Weight of history says there is only one winner of Sunday's Euro 2008 between Italy and Spain.

Almost any football fan knows that, in big tournaments, Italy find a way to win matches which Spain manage to lose.

And quarter-finals, as England fans know all too well, are when the men are sorted from the boys.

Let's trot some stats out and see if you still think Spain deserve their status of favourites.

Firstly, in pure head-to-heads in tournaments, Spain have beaten Italy just once and before Spanish backers twist that in their favour i.e. it's possible, let's point out that it came back in 1920 at the Olympic Games!

The other eight meetings have produced five wins for Italy and three draws.

The stat I like the best though is the fact that Spain haven't reached the semi-fnials of a World Cup or European Championships since 1984 - a shocking record especially when you compare it to a perceived underdog like Turkey, who have now made it to the last four of World Cup 2002 and Euro 2008.

As for Italy, since 1984 they've reached at least the semi-finals of five major tournaments - three World Cups and two European Championships.

And, while we're it, how about the fact that the last two reigning world champions from Europe reached the final of the next European Championship.

Records are there to be broken but those involving Spain and Italy are so deeply ingrained that they can't just be brushed aside in favour of the current evidence we've seen in this tournament.

If that was the case, Spain would have every chance of progressing.

They've got two of the best strikers in the tournament in David Villa and Fernando Torres and their eight goals in the group phase was three clear of the third most prolific team and was only bettered by Holland.

Last-gasp winners against Sweden and Greece could be considered a sign of mental strength but it may also indicate that Spain haven't been as impressive as many have perceived.

True, it was virtually a reserve team which beat Greece but there can be a downside in resting players in terms of losing momentum.

Italy, by contrast, have complete forward momentum after going loss, draw, win in their group games and they also have a "name on the cup" moment after goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon saved Adrian Mutu's late penalty to stop the Azzurri exiting at the hands of Romania.

Some may call that luck (we'd call it inspired goalkeeping) but there are grounds for saying that Italy have had their share of misfortune in this tournament in terms of offside goals.

Italy go into this one without key midfield men Andrea Pirlo and Gennaro Gattuso but they have cover and no Italian triumph ever seems to come easy so this extra bit of adversity won't knock them out of their stride.

At the prices, Roberto Donadoni's men are a must at 11/5 but a small saver on Italy winning on penalties is worth a go too.

Spain have a horrid record in shootouts while Italy's self-belief from spot-kicks was given a massive boost after winning the World Cup final on penalties... and then, of course, they have Buffon in goal!

As for the goalscorer markets, Villa and Torres have outperformed Luca Toni so far but the big striker keeps putting himself in position and surely it's a matter of time before he gets on the scoresheet.

He's 23/10 to do so here and there are worse bets.

However, we'll roll the dice a little and have a wager on full-back Christian Panucci at 40/1 to score first.

The veteran has never been known for his goalscoring prowess but seems to have added it to his locker in recent times.

He got the winner in Italy's crucial 2-1 qualifying win against Scotland at Hampden in November and also netted in the group game against Romania.

That made it two international goals in four games and it could easily have been three in five after he had an early effort cleared off the line against France last time out.

Panucci has become a genuine menace from corners and free-kicks and it's worth noting that two of the three goals Spain have conceded in this tournament came from set-piece headers.

Add in the fact that he scored the opener in two of Roma's final three Serie A games this season and four first goals in his 21 starts and he offers genuine each-way value at 40/1.

PUT TRUST IN AZZURRI: Bettingzone Football Betting News - Euro 2008 Betting, Premier League Betting, Champions League, Previews, Odds & Data.

[ONEDUNME]

I've been on Spain since the start and I've seen nothing to make me change my mind. Think I'll put money on a sending off though as this one could get nasty.Gatuso hasn't cut anyone in half yet so he's about due.

[Martens]

Italy all the way

there is only one player in italian squad, i would never call him, and this is cassano....

anyway, this mug seems in starting line up, but i am not afraid to reduce my stakes, coz i am not afraid my shadow neither

Spain something like holland so far, not impressive but efficient enough ahainst weak teams like greece and sweden, first match against russia not criteria

Italy defeated undiserved imo to holland after a scandal off side first goal, and of course evertbody remembers how italy missed points against romania, -luca tony scored in 45th minute but the linesman and only him, cancelled the goal

as rcgiils said, it is almost a century :chickenfor spain to beat italy lolllllllllll

88 years! i dont think today italians break this dream tradition

Italy to win @ 2.6 massive price large stakes

another reason, is the coach of spaniards, one of the worse imo in this tournament, very old man, lacking fresh ideas, looking more as a retired bus driver, than coach, i agree with jennaro gattuso when he said that should be better for him to walk around the park with his grand children, instead of "making " the coach

go go Italy

[traeth]

Originally Posted by ONEDUNME

I've been on Spain since the start and I've seen nothing to make me change my mind. Think I'll put money on a sending off though as this one could get nasty.Gatuso hasn't cut anyone in half yet so he's about due.

didn't Gattuso get his second yellow card in his last match? so i believe he's suspended for this match
i stilll agree with you that this one could get rough and a sending off is a possibility, available @ 3.75 with betfair

[Kiko]

June 22, 1986: Belgium beat Spain on penalties.

June 22, 1996: England beat Spain on penalties.

June 22, 2002: South Korea beat Spain on penalties.

22nd June today. Italy available to win on pens @ 10/1

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by traeth

didn't Gattuso get his second yellow card in his last match? so i believe he's suspended for this match
i stilll agree with you that this one could get rough and a sending off is a possibility, available @ 3.75 with betfair

Yes, Gattuso misses tonight's game, as does Pirlo. I also think we could see a few cards in this one, have gone for 9pts or more (2pts a booking, 5pts a red card) @ 1.66 on Betfair.

[CJ-MUFC]

Before the quarter finals had begun I had this down as spain as a banker, granted the form shown by both teams and the fact tht italy are without both gattuso and pirlo. However, Spain are the 3rd and last team tht came out of ther respective group with 3 wins, the previous being Croatia and Holland, 2 teams i fancied 2 go thru with ease. For this reason i think ill side with Italy and hope tht ther reputation as slow starters see's them perform 2nite!

[Punter]

I want Spain but i fear both L.Toni and G.Buffon could spoil the party tonight. No bet on the outcome though but i've laid 9 or less corners @ 2.34

[slick]

i was talking to a m8 in work last week who said teams resting players could be making a mistake as their losing there momentum and rhythm.
I said nah, teams do it all the time and when they can afford too and it makes them all the fresher, just stick to rugby like you know best.

Anyhow seems he may be right as all 3 sides to date in the quarters who rested players in the last group match have gone out and none of them looked like the teams who had qualified so easily.

If there is anything in that then Italy on that basis will qualify tonight and allthough I fancied Spain when the quraters were announced, I'm gonna change my mind and pick Italy to qualify, I've probbaly put the mockers on that theory now but 2.1s for the world cup winners who are gaining a bit of momentum after a disaterous start may not be that bad a bet after all . Italy to qualify it is then as this could well end up a draw after 90 mins.

[slick]

Luca Toni to score at anytime too, he's been getting closer and closer as each game has progressed and must be due one.

[slick]

Originally Posted by GaNgStA kEeKs

22nd June today. Italy available to win on pens @ 10/1

I'll have a bit of that too