Euro 08 Top Goalscorer

[mrmuzeman]

So after ommitting those 6 it cuts it down to 8 players.

Smolarek - 8 - 70/1
Ronaldo - 6 - 10/1
Mutu - 5 - 60/1
Henry - 4 - 20/1
Toni - 4 - 14/1
Podolski - 4 - 25/1
Klose - 3 - 10/1
Villa - 3 - 20/1

4 of the above 8 have question marks over them however and I couldnt back them with full confidence, so I wont be on them

Smolarek isnt a top player domestically scoring only 4 goals for Racing Satander this season. He did do fairly well for Borussia Dortmund before this though but not a top striker. Poland are 2/1 just to qualify and you really need your player to play more than 3 games. On the other hand he would be 16.5/1 for an e/w top 4 and he did score a brace and a hatrick in the qualifiers. Being top of the list hes hard to fully ommit at a big 70/1 or 66/1 and the price would look topper if Poland did qualify from their group at the expense of perhaps Croatia.

The problem with Mutu is nothing to do with the player himself, just the team he plays for in Romania. They are 7/2 just to qualify from their group which really isnt good for this bet. Also will be coming up against real tough defences in France, Italy and Holland. Those facts make this a leaver I reckon as you have to have confidence in the team progressing and you just cant predict that here. If for some reason you really fancy Romania to qualify from the group of death then back Mutu but I wont be.

Podolski is in an unfortunate scenario. He looks good in theory, plays for the Germans and tied 2nd top scorer at 2006 World Cup with 3 goals and is 25/1. Looking closer im not so sure due to competition from other German strikers. Nobody knows who will start upfront with Klose out of Podolski or Mario Gomez. You HAVE to be confident of your player to play for him to finish top scorer and we just dont know here wholl play. Maybe they mix and match and both will get good run outs but thats not good enough either. Gota leave him on that basis. Its a shame cos if he is gona be first choice then its a nice price but theres a lot of buzz about Mario Gomez (20/1) possibly getting the nod.

Villa is only a small worry incase Spain go 4-5-1 with Torres leading the line. I dont think they will do that but it is a slight possibility. They might play the formation some games and not others also. Again gota be sure of your man starting imo but hes the best from these 4.

[ONEDUNME]

Muze stop fuckin about and get on Villa and Gomez with me. You know it makes sense

That 20/1 is not going to last forever you know. No doubt Euro2008 will be all over the back pages tomorrow and people are going to start chucking their money down.

GET ON!

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

Villa is only a small worry incase Spain go 4-5-1 with Torres leading the line. I dont think they will do that but it is a slight possibility. They might play the formation some games and not others also. Again gota be sure of your man starting imo but hes the best from these 4.

On the TV last night they were saying it looked more likely that they'll go 4-4-2 with Villa playing and Cesc on the bench, but as you say, there's nothing to stop them mixing and matching between games. They've got a friendly v Peru tonight, and according to Marca they're expected to start with a 4-4-2 before changing things around at half-time, so if that's the case I'd guess the 4-4-2 is the favoured formation.

[ONEDUNME]

Yeah, maybe I've cocked up here. It might be an idea to wait until this weekend's friendlies are over just incase there are any freak injuries.

[Punter]

It might be an idea to wait until this weekend's friendlies are over just incase there are any freak injuries.

Wise words ODM

Netherlands winger Ryan Babel will play no part in the Euro 2008 championship after he tore ankle ligaments in training on Saturday.

The 21-year-old Liverpool star had been expected to play some part of the team's final warm-up match against Wales in Rotterdam on Sunday.

And he was set to be a key part of Marco van Basten's squad for the tournament in Austria and Switzerland.

[DAN DAN]

Read all the posts and taken some of my Eurovision money and gone with Villa, Mutu and Ballack to finish in top three.
6.6, 16.5, 13.5.

[Martens]

why Villa and not Tores??

lets say Spain should do he reminds me it and progress till semi finals at least

-personally i invest in that scenario-

why Villa??/?/?


the other player i have in mind is Luca Toni guys, he reminds me Paolo Rossi in better edition

[mrmuzeman]

For those interested in Gomes and Podolski, Totesport have a market for Top Bundesliga scorer and they are 9/1 and 8/1 respectively. Klose and Toni also play in that league but obviously the player base is a lot smaller for this market than the top scorer outright market. Considering Gomes is best priced 20/1, 9/1 for Top Bundesliga looks good imo.

Tote also doing Top La Liga and Top Prem scorers of course

[mord]

I will try Koller @55 Betfair, he is our best goalscorer, I know that he played shit whole season in his team, but it is completely different when he is playing in the national team, whole tactics is mostly "everything on Koller", ok everyobdy knows this tactic, but he is still capable to score

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

For those interested in Gomes and Podolski, Totesport have a market for Top Bundesliga scorer and they are 9/1 and 8/1 respectively. Klose and Toni also play in that league but obviously the player base is a lot smaller for this market than the top scorer outright market. Considering Gomes is best priced 20/1, 9/1 for Top Bundesliga looks good imo.

Tote also doing Top La Liga and Top Prem scorers of course

Went in yesterday morning and could only get 5/1 Gomes but took it anyway.

[mrmuzeman]

Maybe you got Top Germany Scorer? Thats 5/1 at Tote

[Beanie]

Great work guys - I'll be digesting all this from tomorrow onwards as I make my Euro 2008 punts. Here's a preview from Dave Tindall at bettingzone.co.uk(not a patch on the stuff here mind )

2.5pts e.w. Thierry Henry at 20/1 (Blue Square, Coral, Hills 1/4 1,2,3,4). Fresh after limited playing time with Barcelona and France have class to go all the way.

1.5pts e.w. Michael Ballack at 40/1 (Blue Square, Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4). Always a goalscoring threat. Ended season in fine form with Chelsea and Germany have an easy group.

1pt e.w. Alexander Frei at 80/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4). Host nations always go well and Frei is Switerland's all-time top scorer. Also comes into the tournament fresh.

Looking at the top scorer charts from past European Championships shows that three goals should be enough to earn an each-way return while five is Golden Boot material.

The other, somewhat obvious, conclusion is that it's hugely important to find a player on a team which can escape the group stage.

In Euro 2000 and Euro 2004, 12 of the 13 players who made the frame played for sides who reached at least the quarter-finals, thus giving them a minimum of four games.

2004 Goals Team Team reached:
Milan Baros 5 Czech R SF
Wayne Rooney 4 England QF
Joh Dahl Tomasson 3 Denmark QF
Frank Lampard 3 England QF
Zinedine Zidane 3 France QF
Angelos Christeas 3 Greece Winners
Henrik Larsson 3 Sweden QF

2000 Goals Team Team reached:
Patrick Kluivert 5 Holland SF
Savo Milosevic 5 Yugoslavia QF
Nuno Gomes 4 Portugal SF
Sergio Conceicao 3 Portugal SF
Zlatko Zahovic 3 Slovenia Group
Thierry Henry 3 France Winners

1996 Goals Team Team reached:
Alan Shearer 5 England SF
Hristo Stoichkov 3 Bulgaria Group
Brian Laudrup 3 Denmark Group
Jurgen Klinsmann 3 Germany Winners
Davor Suker 3 Croatia QF

1992 Goals Team Team reached:
Tomas Brolin 3 Sweden SF
Dennis Bergkamp 3 Holland SF
Karl-Heinz Riedle 3 Germany Final
Henrik Larsen 3 Denmark Winners

One lesson I've also learned from big tournaments down the years is the value of going into the tournament fresh.

Milan Baros, the Golden Boot winner in 2004, had missed a large part of the season with Liverpool after breaking his leg.

But come June he was fit and raring to go again and the image of him skipping through tired defences and finding the net remains etched in my mind having tipped him at 66/1.

It had been a similar story in 2002 with Brazil's Ronaldo.

He too was on the comeback trail with club side Inter Milan after a long injury lay-off and hit peak fitness during the finals where he top scored with eight goals - the best in a World Cup since 1970.

Okay, it's not a foolproof system and it could be a mistake to simply rule out those who have been playing in every game and plundering goals all season.

In theory I'd like to rule out Cristiano Ronaldo via the tiredness factor.

But it's made more difficult by the fact that Portugal are one of the teams I fancy to go a long way and the fact that he's pretty adept at scoring cheap goals too. He doesn't have to beat three men and fire home a screamer, he's just as likely to score by heading in unmarked from a corner.

I also have a theory that he'd be a couple of points shorter than his current 10/1 if he wore a No.9 on his back. Despite his incredible goalscoring exploits which included eight goals in qualifying, there's still a slight feeling amongst the layers that he's a wide man on a purple patch.

Three goals and an each-way payout is certainly realistic but the 10/1 is just too short for me to get involved.

So how about taking double those odds on another of the Premier League's greatest ever players who, in my book, has every chance of playing on the winning team.

Crucially, he's also fresh after a season of frustration and limited playing time with his new club in Spain.

If you haven't already guessed, I'm talking about France's Thierry Henry.

Unlike previous big tournaments where he was out of gas after carrying Arsenal on his back all season, the French striker has plenty of running in his legs this time.

He scored six in qualifying, becoming France's all-time leading goalscorer in the process, and he's still seen by French coach Raymond Domenech as his first-choice striker.

France have reached the final of three of the last four major tournaments held on European soil (World Cups 1998 and 2006 and Euro 2004) and, despite a tough-looking group which features Italy, Holland and Romania, they have the talent in their squad to go all the way again.

If Henry gets a crack at the full six games, that 20/1 could look very generous.

With three goals a very reachable target, I also like the look of Germany's Michael Ballack at 40/1.

The Germans have an easy group (Austria, Croatia, Poland) and will have huge support from the vast amount of fans expected to make the short hop across the border.

Ballack, like Henry, will also feel the benefits of a rest, although his was enforced. The midfielder was sidelined for eight months in 2007 before making a goalscoring return to the Premier League when netting in the 4-4 draw against Aston Villa on Boxing Day.

He slowly came back to his best in the final few months of the season and ended the campaign looking particularly sharp.

Ballack netted the winner in a recent friendly win over Serbia and his ability to make late runs into the box, his heading prowess and expertise from set-pieces make him a real goalcoring threat.

Germany could share the goals around up front so backing Ballack at a decent each-way price looks the best way to cash in on the tournament favourites' scoring prowess.

A more ambitious attempt to make money from a player returning from injury is to back Switzerland's Alexander Frei.

Hip and calf problems wrecked Frei's 2007/8 season but he's back on his feet again and became his country's all-time leading goalscorer when netting a brace against Liechtenstein in Switzerland's final warm-up game.

As co-hosts, Frei and Switzerland have home advantage in their favour and, in theory, have a strong chance of getting out of their group which features the Czech Republic, Portugal and Turkey.

History is certainly on their side as on the 12 previous occasions the European Championships have been played, a host nation has reached at least the semi-finals on every occasion.

Austria look a poor side so it's the Swiss who look the ones most likely to hold up that proud tradition.

Frei is as short as 25/1 in places but Sky Bet dangle 80/1 and that makes definite each-way appeal.

[mrmuzeman]

Ive put 5pts out there for the kill

Top Scorer

Ronaldo 1pt @ 10/1
Klose 0.6pts @ 11/1
Toni 0.4pts @ 16/1

Top 3 Scorers

Henry 1pt @ 6/1
Villa 0.6pts @ 6.5/1
Smolarek 0.4pts @ 25/1

Top Team Goalscorer

Dica / Romania 0.5pts @ 5/1
Gomez / Germany 0.5pts @ 5/1

Gives me a specific reason to watch all Portugal, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Poland, and Romanias games

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

Maybe you got Top Germany Scorer? Thats 5/1 at Tote

You're right as usual Muze

[AnothrSpacecat]

cant disagree with that write up, theres no accounting for class these days with punters, its all 'value' in the 66/1 shots

the real betting value this time round is on the class players like henry who could easily core 4-5 goals in the group stage