Euro 08 Top Goalscorer

[traeth]

after reading through this thread , i've gone for Villa @ 18.5 and Van Nistelrooy @ 21 with betfair , thanks to keeks reminder of my own post i've also decided to follow Smolarek

[Turneldinho]

Must say i like the the odds on David Villa so i may have a flutter on him aswell.

As for Holland i i think they are a good attacking side but never seem to score many goals, thus not mentioning the likes of Van Nistelrooy, Kuyt etc.

Some good odds kicking around n hopefully a few quid to be won on the Euro's

[rcgills]

Word of warning for those thinking of backing Villa, read in the paper today that Luis Aragones still hasn't made up his mind yet whether to play 4-4-2 or 4-5-1, and depending on which system he goes with, either Fabregas or Villa will be left out.

[mrmuzeman]

Ive been going through all the qualifying games and goalscorers to try and get a grasp on this market. I feel that this competition as a whole is strong as only 16 qualify and for example teams like England failed. For this reason I pay zero attention to any player who scored against whipping boy competition in the qualifying (Andorra, San Marino, Lichtenstein etc etc). They wont be facing anyone in this tourny of that awful quality defence so any goals scored there is immaterial imo.

So I made a revised Top Goalscorers in Qualification Table, not featuring any goals scored against whipping boys and seriously substandard opposition (the criteria i used for that assumption was each team who placed bottom of the group + any team who conceded more than 2 goals per game average). This table is a much better betting guide to use than the standard table.

Smolarek - 8
Ronaldo - 6
Sukur - 5
Mutu - 5
--------------
Henry - 4
Toni - 4
Podolski - 4
Van Persie - 4
Dica - 4
Xavi - 4
--------------
Koller - 3
Klose - 3
Villa - 3
Marica - 3

Anyone below 3 goals isnt worth considering imo unless you have some huge reason otherwise. It gives a nice shortlist of 14 players to get stuck into and research.

Doing this helped ommit some players, for example, Petric (Croatia) scored 6 goals in qualifying which seems very good but is actually really deceptive since all 6 goals came in the 2 games against Andorra, so he didnt score a single goal against anyone else, which now paints a pretty shocking goalscoring record. It was Eduardo who was the catalyst for Croatia, not Petric.

David Villa too, his record is now nothing special although still decent with 3 goals. 4 of his 7 goals came against Lichtenstein. Torres only scored 2 in qualifying and 1 of those against Lichtenstein which is really an extremely poor return and at 10/1 its not something ill consider.

I enjoyed Mayonnaise's post and thats got some good info. It basically shows that you want a striker/forward to bet on as opposed to a midfielder. That may sound obvious but on the shortlist above there is Dica and Xavi on 4 goals each who are both midfielders so probably npt worth bothering with. Mayonnaise's post also shows not to worry too much about backing a player solely because you think their team will reach the final, as the last 3 golden boots have gone to players from teams who fell at the semi final/quarter final stages. The only thing you have to be extremely confident in regards to that is the team qualifying from the group.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

Doing this helped ommit some players, for example, Petric (Croatia) scored 6 goals in qualifying which seems very good but is actually really deceptive since all 6 goals came in the 2 games against Andorra, so he didnt score a single goal against anyone else, which now paints a pretty shocking goalscoring record. It was Eduardo who was the catalyst for Croatia, not Petric.

Petric also scored against England, I think, although the way we defended that day you could be justified in lumping us in with Andorra

I agree to a certain extent with what you're saying there, and I came to a similar conclusion myself (unfortunately I did so after already backing Petric ), but I think there are some things in his favour. Eduardo's out, but Croatia in that case need someone to step into his shoes with him out injured. It may only have been Andorra, but it still shows he's got a goalscorer's instinct, and to score 6 goals in 2 games, even against such weak opposition, is pretty good going. Let's put it this way, England's whole team only managed 8 against Andorra in 2 games.

And one last thing, I think Croatia are in with probably the weakest team in the competition in Austria, there's no way they'd have qualified if it wasn't for being hosts, and I can see them leaking quite a few goals, hopefully meaning a few opportunities for the likes of Petric.

[mrmuzeman]

Yeah I made an error there I had him down as scoring 6 goals total when it was 7 goals so yeah there was 1 against England (the nail in the coffin goal), duno how I missed that but doesnt matter he doesnt get anywhere near the 3 goal requirement for my list anyway. Tryna get my final shortlist together here.

[ONEDUNME]

Nice going Muze.

[ONEDUNME]

News just in


Striker Pavel Pogrebnyak is a major doubt for Russia's Euro 2008 campaign after suffering a serious knee injury in a friendly win over Serbia.
The 24-year-old limped off after scoring in Russia's 2-1 win, their penultimate game before the tournament.
"He has problems in his meniscus and knee. We'll have to wait and see if he gets better," said coach Guus Hiddink.
Pogrebnyak scored 10 goals in Zenit St Petersburg's Uefa Cup campaign but was suspended for the final.
Russia were in England's qualifying group for the tournament and finished second behind Croatia. They have been drawn in Group D, alongside defending champions Greece, Spain and Sweden.

[ONEDUNME]

Tell you something, taking the point earlier that Austria are probably the weakest team in the competition, that's given me an idea.


The first games of these group stages can often be tight affairs with neither team wanting to lose their first match, OK?


With that in mind, I'd say if Austria are going to take any points then it's far more likely to happen in the first game than the other two, which means I'd go against your Croatia theory guys. If anyone is going to run up a cricket score against Austria, I see it being Germany who should have all but qualified by the time they play Austria. The down side of that being that it may a second string German team fielded but even so, I'm happy to stick with the Gomes bet.


Incidently, worse news for you Croatian backers, if Austria were to make a draw with Croatia and Poland were to beat them in the second game in group B, that would leave Poland possibly needing only a draw against Croatia to go through. I'm happy to have a nibble at Poland to qualify at 2/1 but the relevence to this thread is that you're relying on your Croatian scorer to get at least four games in and that could quite easily not happen.

[Punter]

Wrong thread i know but for those who dont fancy Austria the points market could be the place

0 pts - 9/2 @ Paddy Power
1 pt - 3/1 @ Betfred
2 pts - 8/1 @ SportingBet
3 pts - 4/1 @ Betfred


Just thought i'd mention it

[Mayonnaise]

Below are the top scorer charts taken from the last two European Championships and their respective qualifying tournaments for comparison. Some of the information is incomplete as I do not have access to all the information, the most important points are covered though!

Euro 2004
Tournament Top Scorers
M Baros Czech Republic 5 (3 Qualifying)
R Van Nistelrooy Netherlands 4 (5 Qualifying)
W Rooney England 4 (2 Qualifying)
A Charisteas Greece 3 (3 Qualifying)
F Lampard England 3 (0 Qualifying)
H Larsson Sweden 3 (0 Qualifying)
J Tomasson Denmark 3 (5 Qualifying)
Z Zidane France 3 (2 Qualifying)
A Cassano Italy 2 (0 Qualifying)
J Koller Czech Republic 2 (6 Qualifying)
M Heinz Czech Republic 2 (0 Qualifying)
Nuno Maniche Portugal 2 (Hosts)
Ronaldo Portugal 2 (Hosts)
Rui Costa Portugal 2 (Hosts)
T Henry France 2 (6 Qualifying)
Z Ibrahimovic Sweden 2 (3 Qualifying)

Qualifying Top Scorers
R Gonzalez Spain 7 (0 Comp)
D Trezeguet France 6 (1 Comp)
F Inzaghi Italy 6 (0 Comp)
J Koller Czech Republic 6 (2 Comp)
M Verpakovskis Latvia 6 (1 Comp)
S Wiltord France 6 (0 Comp)
T Henry France 6 (2 Comp)
A Del Piero Italy 5 (0 Comp)
A Frei Switzerland 5 (0 Comp)
D Beckham England 5 (0 Comp)
D Berbatov Bulgaria 5 (0 Comp)
J Tomasson Denmark 5 (3 Comp)
M Allback Sweden 5 (1 Comp)
M Owen England 5 (1 Comp)
R Van Nistelrooy Netherlands 5 (4 Comp)


Euro 2000
Tournament Top Scorers
P Kluivert Netherlands 5 (Hosts)
S Milosevic Serbia and Montenegro 5 (4 Qualifying)
Nuno Gomes Portugal 4 (0 Qualifying)
Sergio Conceicao Portugal 3
T Henry France 3
Z Zahovic Slovenia 3 (9 Qualifying)
A Shearer England 2 (6 Qualifying)
Alfonso Spain 2
B Zenden Netherlands 2 (Hosts)
D Trezeguet France 2
F De Boer Netherlands 2 (Hosts)
F Inzaghi Italy 2
F Totti Italy 2
G Mendieta Spain 2
Hakan Sukur Turkey 2
M Overmars Netherlands 2 (Hosts)
S Wiltord France 2
V Smicer Czech Republic 2
Y Djorkaeff France 2
Z Zidane France 2


Qualifying Top Scorers
Raul Spain 11 (0 Comp)
Z Zahovic Slovenia 9 (3 Comp)
Joao Pinto Portugal 8 (1 Comp)
O Bierhoff Germany 7 (0 Comp)
A Shearer England 6 (2 Comp)
I Urzaiz Spain 6 (0 Comp)
J Koller Czech Republic 6 (0 Comp)
J Tomasson Denmark 6 (0 Comp)
Rui Costa Portugal 6 (0 Comp)


First impressions would seem to indicate that being prolific scorers in qualifying is more of an hinderance than anything, possibly as coaches at the finals will tend to try and mark those players out of the games.

[Kiko]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

Ive been going through all the qualifying games and goalscorers to try and get a grasp on this market. I feel that this competition as a whole is strong as only 16 qualify and for example teams like England failed. For this reason I pay zero attention to any player who scored against whipping boy competition in the qualifying (Andorra, San Marino, Lichtenstein etc etc). They wont be facing anyone in this tourny of that awful quality defence so any goals scored there is immaterial imo.

So I made a revised Top Goalscorers in Qualification Table, not featuring any goals scored against whipping boys and seriously substandard opposition (the criteria i used for that assumption was each team who placed bottom of the group + any team who conceded more than 2 goals per game average). This table is a much better betting guide to use than the standard table.

Smolarek - 8
Ronaldo - 6
Sukur - 5
Mutu - 5
--------------
Henry - 4
Toni - 4
Podolski - 4
Van Persie - 4
Dica - 4
Xavi - 4
--------------
Koller - 3
Klose - 3
Villa - 3
Marica - 3

Anyone below 3 goals isnt worth considering imo unless you have some huge reason otherwise. It gives a nice shortlist of 14 players to get stuck into and research.

Doing this helped ommit some players, for example, Petric (Croatia) scored 6 goals in qualifying which seems very good but is actually really deceptive since all 6 goals came in the 2 games against Andorra, so he didnt score a single goal against anyone else, which now paints a pretty shocking goalscoring record. It was Eduardo who was the catalyst for Croatia, not Petric.

David Villa too, his record is now nothing special although still decent with 3 goals. 4 of his 7 goals came against Lichtenstein. Torres only scored 2 in qualifying and 1 of those against Lichtenstein which is really an extremely poor return and at 10/1 its not something ill consider.

I enjoyed Mayonnaise's post and thats got some good info. It basically shows that you want a striker/forward to bet on as opposed to a midfielder. That may sound obvious but on the shortlist above there is Dica and Xavi on 4 goals each who are both midfielders so probably npt worth bothering with. Mayonnaise's post also shows not to worry too much about backing a player solely because you think their team will reach the final, as the last 3 golden boots have gone to players from teams who fell at the semi final/quarter final stages. The only thing you have to be extremely confident in regards to that is the team qualifying from the group.

I see where your coming from Muse but to me its better to go for a regular out and out goalscorer over a few seasons at least.

I mean we have seen many times strikers have a one season wonder then fall away and never reach them heights again.

Going with players also who play in the top leagues scoring week in week out against the best opposition would give me a greater feeling of confidence.

Anyone know of Huntelaar of Ajax and is he a regular first team player or squad team player?

[mrmuzeman]

Originally Posted by GaNgStA kEeKs

I see where your coming from Muse but to me its better to go for a regular out and out goalscorer over a few seasons at least.

Originally Posted by GaNgStA kEeKs

Going with players also who play in the top leagues scoring week in week out against the best opposition would give me a greater feeling of confidence.

Have you looked at the shortlist? Its got Ronaldo, Mutu, Henry, Toni, Klose and Villa on it!

[Kiko]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

Have you looked at the shortlist? Its got Ronaldo, Mutu, Henry, Toni, Klose and Villa on it!

Apoligies, i didn't

I see....I do like the odds on Mutu and Podolski i must say.

As for Koller - watched the Czechs against Scotland and Koller for as tall as he is really hinders their play IMO.

When he plays its just everything up to him. Tight marking on him and due to his lack of mobility the Czechs looked lost and out of ideas. Scotland worked this way a treat on the Czechs the first half.

He went off at ht and it was a much improved performance. Pace, movement and every attack was cutting Scotland to pieces.

I can see Koller starting the tournament then finding himself a sub the longer it goes on and further Czechs get so maybe wise to avoid him.

[mrmuzeman]

I agree on Koller, theres a lot of negatives against him. Hes played in lots of past World Cups and Euros and never come close to achieving top scorer. Hes not been scoring well domestically for a couple of seasons. I dont think Czechs are as good as they have been so they might not progress. Hes also near the bottom of the shortlist with 3 goals so not one of the front runners on the list. Not to mention the physical reasons you describe, hes defo a leaver for me. Hes old as fcuk too

Theres 3 easy leavers from the list. Xavi and Dica because they are midfielders and were looking for strikers/forwards here. They obviously just randomly ran hot in the qualifiers (xavi for example really isnt a goalscorer). Hakan Sukur can easily be dismissed because hes not in the Turkish squad

Others I have dismissed are Marica and Van Persie. Cant really bet on a Romanian who only comes in at the bottom of the shortlist with 3 goals. Romania very unlikely to qualify from their group and if they did youd rather be on Mutu. Van Persie has serious question marks over his fitness only returning in bit parts for the last couple of Arsenal games of the season. Add to that - Holland were the lowest scoring nation in the qualifiers with a lame 15 goal tally PLUS youd think that Italy and France will more likely qualify than them if you had to predict.

So after ommitting those 6 it cuts it down to 8 players.

Smolarek - 8 - 70/1
Ronaldo - 6 - 10/1
Mutu - 5 - 60/1
Henry - 4 - 20/1
Toni - 4 - 14/1
Podolski - 4 - 25/1
Klose - 3 - 10/1
Villa - 3 - 20/1