[Colbro]

A couple for the games starting tommorrow.

Yorks to beat Hamps at 2.10 DNB Paddy Power and a few others. I am hoping for a bit more on Betfair on the outright win. Yorks have won every game so far and have a strong bowling line up. Vaughan will also play to cpmpliment players like Randolph and Khan and so look very strong. Hamps will not have Pieterson who will be rested and are also missing Udal. Warne as ever will be a danger but it will be interesting to see how Rashid does against him.
The other is Leics to beat Gloucs at 2.20DNB on totesport. Langeveldt will make his debut along side the returning Broad and Nixon. Lewis misses out for Gloucs. Both teams have not won a game yet in the ccc but leics broke their duck in the FPT on Sunday while Gloucs were being hammered by Surrey. The win for Leics looks value.

[Tricky]

I will be wwith you on Leics Colbro. As you say Langeveldt has been signed up by Leics and will go straight into their team. Broad will be back and New is expected to play as a batsmen. Chirpy Nixon back as wicket keeper and team motivator.

David Masters is the form man so far for the Foxes. He's taken a lot of wickets already and should go well here. Also as the game goes on and theBristol wicket disintegrates Claude Henderson should come into his own.

Yorks V Hants looks tough to call. I think whoever bats first will win, so will try and get a bet on when I know whose batting first. The Rose bowl doesn't usually last the 4 days and Warne would be a massive danger if Yorks are batting last. Likewise though Rashid will give the Hants batter problems.

[Pie-chucker]

G'day Tricky, lads.

Hallo Derbyshire. Hope you continue to punch above your posts and say what you really think on the Windies test thread when Swoops deems the summer to have officially begun.

[off thread]. Short video of Collingwood MBE on BBC site saying looking forward to game with Durham etc and then Lords Test. Not once did he say 'if selected' in context of first test. If I were Peter Moores I'd play Bopara for Collingwood and Shah for Vaughan.

[Colbro]

Two draws for me last week so stakes returned.

This week I am going with the leaders in both the divisions.
Warwick to beat Surrey at 1.80 DNB on Betdaq and Notts to beat Middlesex 1.68 also on betdaq

Warwick are in top form at the moment and are playing one overseas player short. Sangakkara is not available and it would be a difficult decision as to who to leave out to accomaodate him if he were here. Ambrose is the star player so far and he kicked started the season with a fine knock in a FPT trophy game. Steyn is bowling quite superbly and the team is being well lead by Maddy. These three are inspiring the rest and nearly all the rest are making valuable contributions to the cause. The weather forecast is not great and Surrey are missing one or two key players. Warwick are greater than the total sum of their parts at the moment and have won the last two games by an innings.

Notts are 3 from 3 and look too good for this league and perhaps should not be here. 1.68 is a good price for a game I can't see them losing.

[Swooperman]

Looking into the prospect of backing Sussex to regain their title. Not had a great start with 1 win & 2 defeats, particularly as the 2 defeats didnt make the 4th day in either game.
There are games on at the moment obviously but its Sussex's week off & they are playing Cardiff UCE at the moment. As its in progress the traddys have taken the market down but before play started Stan James quoted 9's & Bet365 10's. Betfair are currently trading @ 10.0 & I've had a few bob on that, but I do mean a few bob, just to dip my toe in as it were
My theory goes along these lines: yes, Sussex have lost 2 games & have been hammered in both & indeed scores of 151, 206, 102 & 160 do tell a sorry tale, & the whole key to my thinking is that the batting has to improve (obviously :wasntme ) but both games were away from home. Sussex at Hove, Horsham & Arundel are a different kettle of fish entirely.
In the 1 home game this year theyve hammered Kent by 8 wickets & rattled up 510 in the process, & Mushtaq took 10 wickets in the process. Theyve also been unbeaten at home for at least 2 seasons (I didnt look further back than that) where both campaigns have produced home records of won 4, drawn 4. They lost twice last year, to Lancs & Warwicks away, & both will be challengers this season.....indeed Warwicks are looking strong & have already beaten Sussex this season, but obviously there is a right to reply. I suppose its asking a lot to lose no more games from 13 but I think the key is to turn more of the draws into results.
My main points are this: the next 2 games are Surrey at home & Worcs away. Both sides have started dreadfully & all 5 games between them have been lost. On top of that both sides have started atrociously in this round of games as well...Worcs more so but Surrey are also sweating. So my theory is that if Sussex improve as I expect the price could be very different after these 2 games. Sussex also play Worcs last in the season which could be helpful.
Mushtaq is obviously the main man. Hes done superbly for Sussex over the years & doesnt actually have a home ground bias wickets wise, but here is my clincher. Being a cricket groundsman myself I dont take too much notice of long range forecasts, only short range, but its generally accepted that its going to be a decent summer. Now this is difficult to predict & although its pissing down outside, until a few days ago there hadnt been rain in 5-6 weeks.....although granted we had floods before that Now last year down in Sussex they not only had hosepipe bans but they nearly reached level 2 of the drought chart, which effectively means no non-essential watering, & I looked quite deeply into the problem as it was decreed that watering the square at Hove was deemed 'non-essential'. This I believe means that it could only be watered for 4 hours a week. I was looking into the advantage that this might make to Mushtaq & turning some of the Hove draws into wins. I went no further as the odds werent good enough as Sussex were either 1st or 2nd at the time anyway, but now........the odds are good enough.
Sussexs 2nd overseas player is Rana Naved who has been dropped from the Pakistan ODI squad so should be available all summer, but the whole key in my eyes is that Sussex have signed Saqlain Mushtaq, originally as cover for Mushtaq Ahmed, on a UK passport. He was in a bad crash a few years back but hes still only 30 & if he can reclaim some of his form by the time '2 spinners' weather comes around, it could be a masterstroke

[Colbro]

Fascinating post there Swoops. One question though. If Prior does play all summer for England how big an impact will this have on Sussexs' chances.
I notice you say on the other thread that you are not a fan of his but I always thought he was quite instrumental in their recent success. How good will his stand in be against the spin of Mushy and Saqlain?
I notice BC Brown played today as WK who I have never heard of and also Andrew Hodd is listed in the squad who left Sussex to go to Surrey but did not get a game there and so returned to Sussex.
I'd be interested to know what you think about Prior as I feel his loss could be huge to Sussex.

[Swooperman]

Its difficult to tell tbh mate, but personally I dont think Prior will make the test squad, but as thats announced on sunday which is before the next championship round its a moot point. I've seen him play & personally I think hes a batsman/wktkpr rather than the other way around, but as you say keeping to Mushtaq is an eye opener.
I havent seen Saqlain start a game yet so there might be something I'm missing but I've looked hard & not found anything.
Personally I think Read has been hard done by to an extent but if I was guessing I'd go Nixon :wasntme
Good point regarding Sussex missing Priors batting mind you, as the whole point is that the batting has to improve

[Colbro]

Originally Posted by Swooperman

I havent seen Saqlain start a game yet so there might be something I'm missing but I've looked hard & not found anything.

Only thing I can think of is that on both BBC and Cricinfo he is down as overseas player so maybe clearance has not come through yet similar to Ian Harvey at Derby

[Swooperman]

Hes got as UK passport after marrying an English girl, & is available for England I believe

[Swooperman]

Actually Colbro, your'e right & he is listed as an overseas by Cricinfo, but he wasnt when I went through this earlier in the week. His player profile confirms he holds a UK passport, & theres an article quashing speculation over future playing involvement for England

[Colbro]

Found this Link.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/cric...ex/6378677.stm

[Swooperman]

So presumably hes applied for it & is awaiting confirmation I can just imagine those 2 bowling in tandem on a dusty Hove pitch I'm on & may push the boat out a little more. Obviously the batting has to turn the corner for it to be a runner but its the same batting that won the title last year. I dont thinbk the 2 defeats are the problem, more the batting & turning some of the home draws into wins

[Hippy Dave]

Originally Posted by Pie-chucker

If I were Peter Moores I'd play Bopara for Collingwood

That is a joke right? Drop a guy with a (recent) Ashes double hundred, a test average of 43 and our best fielder for a one day player?

[Colbro]

Two draws in the cc games so stakes refunded.
One for the FPT tommorrow is Surrey at 1.90 Expect.
These odds are out of line with everyone else and may be changed soon as most others have Surrey around the 1.65 - 1.70 mark.
Surreys strength is one day cricket and especially their batting as shown in the 490+ scored against Gloucs. Middlesex have played 4 and are 2/2 so are almost out of this comp already. Surrey at 1.90 are good value.

[Colbro]

One for the FPT trophy today.
Yorks are 2.04 on Betfair to beat Lancs which I am taking. This is better than all other odds around.
Lancs are virtually out of the competition and have little to play for and so far have struggled in this comp. A win for Yorks would put them in the top two with Warwick playing Leics at the same time. Yorks are strong this year and still seem to be underated. I would make them about 1.75 here.