World Cup 2011

[Swooperman]

Wasnt going to do this tbh but you can blame RC....well not blame him but a comment he made kind of triggered it

As Pie pointed out a few years ago, I'm a test match man, not an ODI one, but we'll see how it goes here, yeah ?

World Cup 4 years ago, I said well in advance, Ireland to beat Pakistan, & anybody who thinks that match was fixed is deluded, it wasnt. Pie !! He fcuking doubled the fcuker with Bangladesh if my memory serves straight, & I never even lookedc at 'em !!

I'm not as hands on as I was, but lets see where we go.....i Saw a sunday paper earlier tip Tillakaratne Dilshab as the 'big hitting top runs scorer'.
...but they had a photo of Sangakkara (Mirror) & Dilshans an accie man

1st thought are, no research, you cant look too far from the home nations. India look decent @ 3's

[Swooperman]

Big 8 to qualify @ 2.14 Betfair ??

I'm an outsider backer, but I personally think that looks good, I also think that if anyone fancies an outsider, Windies can do anyone on their day....25.0 !!

[Swooperman]

Williamson & Franklin for NZ, decent odds

[Swooperman]

Yusuf Pathan, available @ 20's Betfair, done some damage recently I think, but needs checking

India, that is

[Swooperman]

Looked a bit more in depth & this is what I've come up with so far:

Less teams in the competition than previous years, meaning less chance of upsets.
The 'big 8 to qualify' bet I was on about obviously means Bangladesh not to get through, but it has to be taken into account theyre co-hosts.
The structure looks a bit biased, India play 6 games in 30 days, whereas Ireland play 6 in 22.
Only 1 of the big 8 has a game against a supposed minnow last, as in a 'get out of jail card', that is South Africa vs Bangladesh.
Not quite worked out all the ramifications, but as its 2 points for a win & 1 for a tie or no result, & none of this 'carry your points through' bollocks, then 4 wins & you're through, 3 wins & you'd be unlucky to miss out....I think


Quick team-by-team chances guide, ie my opinions

India - at home, every chance, available around 3/1. obviously chock full of batting, with Tendulkar, Dhoni, Pathan, Gambhir, Yuvraj & Sehwag, but Dravid & Laxman have gone. Bowling looks good with Patel, Zaheer, Harbhajan, Pathan etc. Semis at least I reckon

New Zealand - Easiest group, ie big 4 are favourites. Could be argued that theyre dark horses tbh, as have a fair few batsmen that bowl half decent dobbers, ie Ryder, Styris. Problem is Vettori, in his death throes as captain, hasnt a great record in India & you'd have to think that he'd have to seriously contribute. Franklin one to watch for runs IMO.
Outside chance of semis & John Wright a big step

Sri Lanka - another strong shout as at home. sangakkara & Jayawardene big with the bat, Murali still going strong in ODIs & would love to go out winning this. Slow bowlers literally coming out their ears. Playing 7 bats & 4 bowlers. Strong candidates & be a surprise not to make semis

Australia - will have their backers, but not from me. Always capable of big runs but Mike Hussey is a big miss, & Krezja is a strange pick as theyve discared him for 2 or 3 years. Havent got the attack to survive for me, yeah Lee, Tait, Mitch & Hastings can be okay on their day but they could go all round an Indian park. Quarters & home

England - hard to judge as lots of question marks, ie Broad, Swann. Have to stand a chance as until the wheels came off injury wise & got hammered in Oz they were playing some decent stuff. Pretty confused re Colly as its the whole balance of the team & without him then Trott & KP have to bowl a full spell. Morgans a big loss. Who knows ?

Pakistan - easier group so should qualify for the quarters & extremely difficult to predict. Can beat anyone, but can also lose to anyone as well

South Africa - Indian batsmen will be happier facing Sten on their own pitches as they didnt like it in SA. Hes the best in the world & will carry a large burden of hope. Have to stand a chance but not great under pressure. Strong semis & possible final chance.

West Indies - not to be written off as got lots of hitting power, but like Pakistan are unpredictable, but if Gayle fires then no reason why cant go on a run. Bangladesh & Ireland will be targetting them though

Bangladesh - home advantage has to give them some chance you'd think. Not sure they'll dent India or SA so need to beat ireland & Netherlands & then one of England & WIs you'd think. Possible

Minnows - ireland are too old now I think & to stand any chance they'd need to beat Bangladesh 1st game, probably WI's & then Netherlands last. Dont see it bar Netherlands, who are going to get smashed everywhere, as all theyve really got are Ten Does Schate & Zuiderent. Canada could beat Kenya as I reckon the Kenyans could be the worst of the lot this time, but the real hope of an upset is Zimbabwe. Think the Zims will beat Canada & Kenya pretty easily & so need a win against either Pakistan or New Zealand to stand a chance, that could happen. Much better organised than they have been & dont forget beat Australia in the 20/20 WC


Looking at the top run scorer overall, have been looking at a certain criteria. Basically, sides that play the weaker teams early on when theyve got their strongest team out.
ie Australia play Kenya & Canada 4th 7 5th, now if theyve already won 3 then they could arguably rest a couple of players & still expect to win.
So I'm ruling Aussies out for that reason, also the Safris as they play their hardest 4 oppos 1st 4 so if they win all those then arguably someone like Kallis could be rested. New Zealand do play weaker sides up front but theyre not likely to breeze through although if McCullum gets going it could be interesting.
So going on that criteria I'm looking for a player from potentially Sri Lanka, England, india & West Indies.
England & Sri Lanka each play 2 of their weakest oppos in the 1st 4, whereas India & WIs play all 3 in the first 4
So, Sehwag has to be a runner @ 14.5 Betfair as if he gets in against one of Bangladesh, ireland or the Netherlands, or even 2 of them, it could be carnage.

But...more to my fancy is Chris Gayle. Hes a man for the big occasion, opens like Sehwag, & can quite often succeed against decent sides just as well as minnows. WIs play SA 1st, followed by Netherlands, Bangladesh, Ireland, England & India
Also he has a better average in ODIs vs Bangladesh than his career, plus in 223 ODIs he has 19 tons @ 39.0, but in 19 ODIs in India he has 6 tons @ 58.35

He is my man, Chris Gayle @ 30.0 Betfair

Compare him to Sehwags 14.5 & Kallis's 21.0 & hes massive value. Also if he gets going against 2 of those side then a quarter final place may be enough to win the bet..
Thinking of backing him up with Jon Trott @ 30.0 also. Fastest to 1000 ODI runs & bang in form, if a little one paced

[Bigkegman]

it all reads double dutch to me swoops but nice work

[rcgills]

Cheers Swoop Just had a little bit on Gayle e/w @ 34 on 888sport.

[traeth]

I enjoyed reading your analysis and I like your logic
so I'm another one that's on the bandwagon , Gayle e.w @ 34 with bluesq , 5 places at 1/4 odds

thanks

[ONEDUNME]

Ah go on then, I'll join ya.

[Swooperman]

One thing I should point out, is that WIs start their round of games last, so all of the other big hitters will have already had at least one chance, but that makes no difference to his chances whether theyve clicked or not. Even if he gets nothing vs SA then he still has all the minnows to come.

Whereas if he gets runs vs SA he will shorten, but on all other scenarios he will lengthen before stabilising. In other words, get on now & then if he lengthens for any reason early on, take him again

[Swooperman]

Going on the same theory looking at the bowling, the usual supects stick out.

Dale Steyn will be a handful, but personally I think he'll be treated a bit like Muralitharan and seen off to an extent, & the guys that interest me other than that are Malinga & Zaheer Khan.
Malinga the slinger will always do well & did in the last world cup, but hes had a few injuries lately & was rested from tests a bit just for this World Cup. He would be the one that really would be likely to be rested if already through with the pressure on his back that his action brings, so the fact that hes 14.0 Betfair & favourite puts me off.
Zaheer is only slightly longer @ 17.0 but he fact hes left arm over interests me a lot as well, but I'm going to think about backing him.
The guy I am going to back, though, is Ajantha Mendis (BAW) he hasnt been around that long but he burst on the scene with a lot of different variations & mystery balls that were hard to read. People have wised up a little but the key to me is that of his 1st round oppo's, hes never bowled against Canada, Kenya & Australia, which is only because hes only been around 4 years. Hes bowled a bit against Pakistan & 3 matches against New Zealand, but his record against Zimbabwe is rocking
then of his potential QF oppos hes only played once each vs England & SA, 3 times against the Bangles, not against WIs since 2007 & has a good record vs India.
Tends to come on 2nd change so they'll be looking to score runs & play shots against him after Malinga whilst treating Murali with respect at the other end. Hes taken nearly 2 wickets per game since hes started & averages just under 20. Whats more to want?

Ajantha Mendis @ 24.0 Betfair

Also, though hes not even quoted on Betfair, taking Chris Gayle 1pnt E/W @ 125/1 1/4 odds 1-4 Blue Square. Got a good record bowling wise in india & normally gets his 10 overs

[SAMOAN]

Not so bothered about the tournament winner, but always like a bet on some of the other markets. Have to agree with everything that has bee said about Gayle, but have a few more at fancy prices, that I can go with for small stakes :-

Top Wicket Taker -

ABDUR RAZZAK ( Bangladesh ) - One of their many spinners and will know conditions well. Seems likely to bowl his full allocation and currently at 75 on Betfair. Watch your bets with this one, as he is not to be confused with Abdul Razzak of Pakistan.

KYLE MILLS ( NZ ) - Very underrated performer IMO. Has a solid record in ODI's, though has been injury prone. If he makes it onto the field for the first match, then I will be happy with any price around the 75 mark.

IMRAN TAHIR ( SA ) Well known on the county circuit and recently qualified to play for South Africa. Not many spinners in the team, so should get his full allocation in most matches.

Top Runscorer -

CAMERON WHITE ( Aus ) - Not at his best in the recent ODI series, but always capable of a big score and just the sort who could take one of the minnows apart. Probably bats too low in the order, but this is reflected in the price of 90 on betfair

MORNE VAN WYK ( SA ) - Real speculative choice at 250 on betfair and as reserve wicket keeper not certain to even get a game. Recently scored an ODI 50 off only 24 balls, so if he does see the field, could prove a real danger. At the moment AB De Villiers is down to keep wicket, so might need an injury too him or one of the other batters.

AHMED SHEHZAD ( Pakistan ) - Exciting youn prospect, who has been in the runs lately. Could make hay against the lesser sides and is a touch too big IMO at 60 on betfair.

[rcgills]

OK, I'll join you on Mendis too

[SAMOAN]

Just flagging up a couple of other markets that are available. Paddy Power, Stan James and Coral are offering odds on which player will hit the most tournament sixes, with Chris Gayle available at 14's with Stan James ( 8's and 10's elsewhere )

Hills, Lads, PP and SJ are offering odds on which player will score the fastest 50 ( balls faced ) Stan James are again best priced on Chris Gayle at 18's.

For the most 6's bet, I would be looking at Kieron Pollard, Cameron White and as an outside bet Canada's John Davison ( opens the batting, has a decent World Cup pedigree and hits the ball a long way.

For fastest tournament fifty. the above mentioned are all of interest, along with MS Dhoni ( top priced 50's ) and Ross Taylor ( 33's )

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by rcgills

OK, I'll join you on Mendis too

...and me