Ashes Ramblings

[Swooperman]

The time has come
To say fair's fair
To pay the rent
To pay our share

Thought that would fit in nicely for the start of the 'defence of the Ashes' thread, then I read the second verse and thought it might not be such a great idea

The time has come
A fact's a fact
It belongs to them
Let's give it back

Starts wednesday night midnight UK time on sky, and there has to be money made on this series as its as tight as Winrews toupee tape to his chrome dome......
(Anyone know if the TV detector vans drive through the night, as if they do I best pay me tv licence )
I've got various thoughts going on at the moment & I'll put them up before it starts but my days of super long posts are gone as its simply not a popular enough medium to spend hours posting on it.

Anyone who thinks that either side will win this easily is mad, simply stark & raving. I reckon this will be the closest series between the 2 in the convicts backyard for donkeys years, & I've got a few pointers, with the help of cricinfo, to back me up.

Home advantage
Obviously Australia are at an advantage on their own patch, it stands to reason. Going on memory (not checked but I dont think I'll be far wrong) Australia have only lost one home series since 2000, against South Africa a year or so back. They wont have drawn many either, one each against India & New Zealand if memory serves. They havent lost many away, England 2005 & 2009 & India twice, again if memory serves.
To back all this up, the facts are that England havent won the Ashes in Australia since 1986/7, thats 5 defeats on the trot. In those 5 defeats the test match score stands at Aussies 18, England 3....& one of those 3 was a dead match.
Even though the Aussies arent as strong as they were, its a common belief that you have to play 25% better than them to beat them on their own patch.

Fortress 'Gabba
The first test is always at Brisbane, & the Aussies record here is simply awesome. They have not lost a test here since 1988 against Viv Richards all conquering West Indies team, & they have won 16 & drawn 4 of the last 20 tests here. It is the only ground in the world that has had 10 tests on it since 1990 & the home side havent lost, thats some record as 37 grounds fall into that category. In the last 10 tests there have been 18 Aussie centurions, & only 3 for the oppo. England have won 4, drawn 4, lost 10 here, but only 2 of the wins came after 1945.

So thats all the doom & gloom shit out of the way, I'll concentrate on the optimistic stuff on the next post

[Swooperman]

Form
In the last 2 years, Englands win/lose ratio is 12-4, whereas the Aussies is 12-6. Comparing that before the previous tour is interesting as the Aussies had only lost 2 in the same preceding time frame, both in England in 2005

Okay, lets cut the bullshit, cos I could quote figures proving why we've got a chance all night.

As I posted before, this series is on a knife edge right from the start, & I believe will be the closest matched in Australia in years. I'm not saying England are a cert by any means, but I believe that they are value. I think this is so evenly contested that this could be the traders dream & become a blueprint. These 2 sides bring out the best & the worst in each other, expect to see stirring fightbacks & dramatic collapses as a norm. Therefore I'm not going mad on my series bets, & looking more in-running, but i've got one or two in mind.

Player for player

Openers.
Aussies have the advantage I reckon. Strauss is massive for England but so is Watson for Australia, not even taking into account his bowling. I was never a fan of Watson & thought he was an arrogant prick tbh, & a lot of Aussies agree (go figure ) but since he came in for Phil Hughes last summer hes been more than solid. These 2 need to lmatch each other run for run as one of them being 100+ on the other could be massive. Katich is solid, a good player, but one of the 4 Aussie batsman looking over his shoulder either because of age or form. In 2005 all the old guys knew they were retiring & the pressure was off, thats not the case here as Katich wants to continue. Expected to be solid enough but pressures on. Cook isnt fancied by the bookies, hes been on a tightrope for a good 12 months now & seems to be holding on only by the fingertips as captain elect. Aussies dont rate him either. Needs to prove all of us wrong then cant see it. Advantage Aussies

[Swooperman]

3 & 4
Its tempting to put Ponting v KP but theyre in different slots. Both are world class on their day & Ponting remains the wicket England want. Cant give the bloke enough credit tbh & the booing of last summer was a disgrace. Never been convinced entirely of him as captain but the transitional period hes overseen is enormous, & would have tested anyone. As a cricket fan, I dont think he deserves to be remembered as the bloke who lost the Ashes 3 times, but.....tough . Both he & KP have been through lean trots recently & are under pressure as much from themselves as anyone else, but both remain their most likely match winners. KP being the younger, & not having the pressures of captaincy, even though the crafty fcukers have picked a left arm spinner (surely the greatest compliment to an out of form bat that you'll get) leads me to give him the edge, but only, only by a gnats cock.
Trott v Clarke. Clarkes under pressure, press & public dont seem convinced of him as next captain & hes not a certainty for tomorrow as yet. Superb batsman on his day & the one likely to attack Swann & disrupt his rhythm which is key, but so could his bad back be as well. Trotts on his first trip in tests to Australia but is hard headed & I reckon will cope. How they cope with his time wasting at the crease & he copes with the verbals will be make or break. Very even but in the interests of equality, Clarke by a gnats, meaning even.

[Swooperman]

5 & 6
Hussey v Collingwood. Both in a bit of a similar situation I reckon, but Englands is the happier ship. Hussey is another of those looking over his shoulder & despite his ton last week is by no means certain of lasting the series out. Had a superb start in tests but his 'before & after average' is revealing. Dont see him scoring a lot of runs tbh & reckon this is make or break. Colly's similar, a world class fielder who everyone wants to do well, but I'm not convinced a couple of his career saving knocks havent held us back a bit. Always at his best in a backs to the wall scenario & his double ton here last time stands him well. As even as can be.
North v Bell. Erm....god forgive me for this thats all I can say. I've always been a Belly fan as a warwicks man & this is his 4th Ashes, & hes often struggled to justify the hype. The bookies believe in him this time though & hes played some impressive knocks lately. I think this is his time tbh & I think hes in the right place. North I dont rate. Of the last 20 years I reckon hes their worst batsman & has never done anything to justify his inclusion. 4 test tons you say? Yeah, all away from home & pressure. Reckon hes picked as a back up spinner as much as anything.
Gulp.....Englands by a distance

[Swooperman]

Keepers
Prior & Haddin are much of a muchness & are likely to score as much as each other, meaning no advantage.

Spinners.
I cant believe that the Aussies, after backing Hauritz for 2 years, have now axed him. I'm not saying that picking a left armer (for KP. Whos scared, huh?) is a bad idea but they didnt intend it before due to everything theyve said & done. The Aussies have a record first class compared to Hauritz's of pulling blokes from nowhere (Peter Taylor & Ian Healy spring to mind) but Xavier whatsisface has only taken 84 first class compared to Hauritz's 67 test wickets.Hauritz was the man that turned the Pakistan fightback!! Panic if you ask me. Swann is the best finger spinner in the world & decent down the order.
Hard to say not knowing the bloke, but its highly likely to be Swann by a street

Johnson v Broad
The crux in my eyes. This is the game, right here. Both have the ability to look as innocouous as fcuk & then collapse a side with a searing spell. Both get decent runs down the order. Broads a hot head, believe it or not off the pitch Johnson pretty calm. Broad arguably won the Ashes last year, whereas after Johnsons good start in tests hes struggled the last 2 seasons. Theres a theory hes tried too hard to swing it in England the last 2 summers & will be better more relaxed in Australia, but his figures have waned there as well tbh. Potentially, if he gets it right, Johnson is the most destructive bowler in the world they reckon, & I dont think Broad can argue that if he reaches those heights, but I'm not sure he will.
As close as fcuk but potentially this is where Australia can take it, but i'm backing Broad to at least hold him if not slightly get the edge.

[Swooperman]

Hilfenhaus v Anderson

This is like Johnson v Broad but the other way round. Hilf is a cert in their side for me & will bowl well all day long, but I believe that Anderson has the x-factor to destroy a side if it swings. It does swing in Australia, people who say it doesnt are bullshitters, it just doesnt as much. When its going his way Jimmy is unplayable whereas Hilf is just very good. Yeah, Hilfs at home but they used to reckon he was just an english bowler anyway, whereas Jimmys got new tricks from that disastrous tour in 2006/7. He doesnt just need swing to survive. Unnervingly, this means damp conditions arent just Englands.
Hilf is a legend in my eyes, but I believe Jimmy can just edge this.

Siddle/Bollinger/Smith v Finn
Even we dont know much about Finn hes tall, not express at times but okay at others (read Broad) but the bounce should be interesting. All I can say is that I reckon under Strauss & Flower England are as prepared as they can be so I'll give them the benefit on him. Siddle will run all day but has just come back from injury so its hard to call. Bollingers also been injured but has the advantage of being left arm, quite like him tbh & hs a real rabbit with the bat. Smith is a bit too bits & pieces tbh & wont play until later in the series.
Dont see this battle as shaping the Ashes tbh, certainly not until later on anyway.


Reckon the key is to hold Brisbane, hardly rocket science with their record. Been rain around though, green top, maybe low scores....means a result. Temptation says that England need to go ahead although we could point to coming from behind in 2005, although we were also only 3 runs from being 2 down!!

As close as fcuk I reckon, a traders dream.

2-1 England....& when they go 1 up, back Australia the same score

[Quandram]

I'll post up just to commend the work and assure you that some fucker's reading it.

My Ashes mindset is currently best described as "disturbingly confident". That's for retaining with the series win being merely "more confident than I've felt about any Aus tour since I've given a damn about cricket (17ish years for the record)) but I'm looking for a 3-1, 2-1 sort of score. I dithered on the series bets and missed the England +1 Test handicap @ Evens which I should have snapped up. 5/6 still out there but not for me and I'll wait for any twists in play.

Can't really argue or add mich to what you've done Swoops as to be honest I laregely agree with the England comments and I can't claim to have seen enough of Aus to weigh in with an opinion.

Swann as top england or top series bowler is the one i'm looking at most strongly. With Broad as a saver on the other market (whichever way round I do it). Think the distribution of Aussie wicket takers will be more even and expect Swann & Broad to hog a larger % of the wickets for England. Think Jimmy will be a marked improvement on previous tours but that isn't saying much and I anticipate him taking up the support role. Finn, I like what I've seen and give it 4 years and I hope would see him and Broad fighting it out for top seamer (in these conditions) but I think it's just a little early for him to really clean up and threaten the top of the charts.

[ONEDUNME]

I know absolutely zilch about cricket, but as it hasn't deterred Swoops or Quandram from posting, I'm encouraged to post my bets anyway.

My bets are based entirely on the bits of gubbins I've picked up from various people over the last three months or so and that points to the fact that......

The Ausies will not win the ashes but are likely to win the first test.

I've laid the Ausies for quite a bit (at 1.87) but had score savers on them to win the ashes 3-2 or 3-1.

I've also backed them draw no bet to win the first test at 4/7 with Stan James.

Any winnings from that last bet will go on laying them again, probably around 1.65 or so. A draw would be the best result for me for the first test as I'm confident (from my unknown, unnamed sources) that they can win at least two of the others to land my bet.

[traeth]

Originally Posted by Swooperman

Reckon the key is to hold Brisbane, hardly rocket science with their record. Been rain around though, green top, maybe low scores....means a result. Temptation says that England need to go ahead although we could point to coming from behind in 2005, although we were also only 3 runs from being 2 down!!

like you odm , my knowledge of cricket is minimal but I really enjoy reading swoop's thoughts , I've even used sippets of info from here down the local and regulars seem to think I'm an expert , I'm just a fraud really [ aided by swoop's expertise ] , but not admitting it down the local though.

I was considering going for a draw @ 4.1 but your comment about "means a result" has put me off. Is a draw at Brisbane unlikely then?

[Colbro]

Good stuff Swoops - always enjoy reading your stuff.

Main concern for me is Englands bowling. Whenever we have beaten Australia in the last three series we had four quicks plus a spinner and this time we only have the three. When we we play three we tend to struggle a bit (the oval 2005 springs to mind when we were without Simon Jones). Aus seem to have far more options in the bowling area with Watson Katich and North capable of filling in if needed (Katich has 21 test wickets, Marcus North has 13, Shane Watson has 40)

[David_Speedie]

Despite the build up going so well, I can't help coming back tothis is Australia at home so will be very difficult.

Swann makes a big difference in my mind, but Finn will be facing stronger opposition to date so I'll be Interested to see how he goes.

Predictions:

Swann top England bowler - obvious reasons

Johnson top Aus bowler - much stronger at home, good record in Brisbane so could get off to a flyer.

Aus to win first test - record at the ground immense, and I think they'll be looking to respond to some of the criticism they've had.

Also considering:

KP and Pointing top runscorers - quality batsman who are capable of scoring big. Think they'll rise as ever to the occasion.

Series to be 2-2, although I think I may wait toll after first match as odds will improve if Aus win.

Bell to be top England bat for first test - sounds like wicket may favor fast bowlers so openers could struggle, perhaps runs lower down once bowlers are tired.

[rcgills]

Had an e-mail from Paddy Power as I've not used them for a while offering me a special price of 7/2 on England to win the first test. Are they worth considering at that price, or is Australia's record in Brisbane good enough that even 7/2 isn't good enough to back England?

[ONEDUNME]

Well the way I see it, they are both pretty shit right now. Confidence is shakey on both sides. I'm wondering if it might be worth backing either side to win by four or five? My bets are already on by the way but I've had a look at the prices anyway - the logic being that if a team gets two up in the first two or three tests, their respective beloved public and press are going to rip them to fucking pieces and they could well implode.

Aussies at 22 on betfair and England on at 36 so take your pick. Don't forget, you'd only be looking for either of them to win the first two (or two out of three and a draw) and you can lay off for a free bet.

Bookies best prices Ausies 22/1 vcbet - England 40/1 Tote and Coral.

Whadayareckon

[Pete89]

To be honest I really don't understand cricket beyond 20/20. When does it end, cause you don't get rain in Aus?

[Colbro]

Some intersting stuff in this piece

BBC Sport - Cricket - Ashes: Is the Kookaburra ball key to winning the urn?