T20 World Cup

[Quandram]

Going to attempt to get my head around this in the coming days. Just going to deposit some odds here, they may or may not be followed by ramblings depending on if anything comes to mind.

Win
4.5	Australia
6	India
6	South Africa
7	Sri Lanka
11	West Indies
13	England
13	Pakistan
13	New Zealand
67	Bangladesh
301	Zimbabwe
501	Ireland
751	Afghanistan
Win Group A			Qualify Group A
1.67	Australia		1.07	Sri Lanka
3	Pakistan		1.18	New Zealand
15	Bangladesh		3	Zimbabwe
Win Group B			Qualify Group B
1.73	Sri Lanka		1.07	Sri Lanka
2.75	New Zealand		1.18	New Zealand
21	Zimbabwe		3	Zimbabwe
Win Group C			Qualify Group C
1.91	India		1.02	India
2.05	South Africa		1.02	South Africa
51	Afghanistan		7	Afghanistan
Win Group D			Qualify Group D
2	West Indies		1.08	West Indies
2.2	England		1.11	England
19	Ireland		4.33	Ireland

Anyone who knows how the funky odds work and can either tell me or set it up then please do one or other at your absolute leisure.

[Quandram]

The letter/number in the Super Eight phase does not relate to the finishing positions in the groups but to the assigned letter/number of the teams.

e.g. If Australia win group A and Pakistan come second then Australia would be A2 and Pakistan A1.

Group A	Group B	Group C	Group D
Pakistan - A1	Sri Lanka - B1	South Africa - C1	West Indies - D1
Bangladesh - A2	New Zealand - B2	India - C2	England - D2
Australia	Zimbabwe	Afghanistan	Ireland
Super Eight
Group E	Group F
A1	B1
B2	A2
C1	C2
D2	D1

[Quandram]

That group A qualift market should obviously read

1.07 Australia
1.25 Pakistan
2.88 Bangles

[Quandram]

A couple of things would help for me in my quest through this tournament.

1) If I knew something about cricket... i know a bit but don't think of me as within a bargepole touching distance of Swoops.
2) I'd followed the IPL... I didn't

This is what I do know. Twenty20 has come a long way from the utter randomness it once was. Bookies have sharpened up and you don't get the massive underdog prices you once did. The players too have realised that there's real money involved so it's an idea to take it seriously.

Having said that I wont be taking any short prices or backing favourites in the outright market as there is still a lot of randomness to be had.

1st punt based on just going through the squads is New Zealand @ 14 Betfair. Rated outsiders of the main 8 teams and I just think that's a bit big for a team with an excellant captain and plenty of batting. Also due to go in to, speculatively, the weaker of the two Super 8 groups IMO.

Some mutterings going through the groups and teams...

Group A - Easily the tougest and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Bangels make it through as they are no mugs... Pakistan are all over the shop politically and who knows what shape the players are in mentally... but if ever there was a team to not predict it's Pakistan. Australia are favourites for the tournament and have an impressive looking team. They'll likely be short price favs in both games and thus nigh on unbackable.

Group B - Sri Lanka are a dangerous team, batting not quite there of late I think but the best spinner in the tournie and the West Indian pitches might suit. NZ look a decent all round outfit to me and Zimb have improved and are getting back on their feet so don't write them off but I'd expect Sri and NZ to get through here.

Group C - South Africa, world class chokers but you can't write off that lineup. India, nobody has benefitted more from the IPL (that isn't rocket science) and it would be a huge shock if they don't get through. Afghanistan, granted I know nothing at all about them and they've clearly done something to get here but group odds say it all, huge shock if they make it through but what would 3 years ago have been 50/1 shots in a match are now 10's... I'll be following their warm up fixtures to see if they are worth a speculation at any point.

Group D - England - genuine T20 squad, bit of a concern for me with the lack of bowling experience in this form of the game as our boys tended to avoid the IPL... quality batting though and we should do ok. West Indies - Home nation and kings of randomness. Some genuine class in the team and they should progress easily enough. Ireland - not the team of a few years ago I think.

Granted not terribly insightful or mould breaking but there you go.

One interesting warm up game so far... Zimbabwe beat Australia by 3 runs today. Looked a decent Aussie team as well.

[Colbro]

I found this article about the last 20/20 world cup which may give a few pointers for this tournament.

The best fun imaginable | Opinion | Cricinfo Magazine | Cricinfo.com

Just a few random thoughts

To me Sri Lanka seem to tick most of the boxes and maybe it is there time after two recent losses in finals. I'm not too sure 7.00 is great value though. They do have plenty of spin options and Malinga to bowl the final overs.

Bangladesh look interesting but their lack of a pace bowler could count against them.

Australia are predictable favourites but only have Hauritz as a front line spin bowler.

[Swooperman]

Wickets in the Windies are slow these days, think that will suit Bangladesh's attack tbh, whereas it might not suit Australias. I can see about 4 stumpings in the Pakistan innings already
Going on the prices I think the Windies, England & NZ look value. I wouldnt touch Australia in this, theyve always been a little snobbish towards it even though times are changing & they are no value at all.
Its worth keeping an eye on the underdogs as backing favourites in this form of the game is suicide. Ireland look a bit old to me but I agree Zimbabwe might be on the turn.....lets be fair if the prize for doing well is staying out of their own country for longer I'd be playing my arse off as well
Afghanistan need to be watched, seriously, I'm not saying back 'em, I'm saying dont lump against 'em

[Quandram]

Good to see a bit of knowledge has turned up and nice that Swoops has mentioned NZ even if it is just tacked on the end to spare my

To recap:
NZ to Win: 2pts @ 14
Bangles to win Group A 2pts @ 15 Bwin
Their bowlers might find the pitches to their liking as Swoops mentions and they've got some decent batsman. The final nail in this one is that they play Pakistan first up. If they win that this price will tumble and with the Aussies losing to Zimbabwe (who also just beat pakistan) then I think the price is too high (the 10's largely available elsewhere might well have seen me tempted so I have to take 15).

Games tomorrow:
NZ vs Sri Lanka - NZ 5pts @ 2.3 BSq
I like the NZ lineup and it's easy for me to back them as underdogs here. Sri Lanka were in deep bother in their warm up at 24/4 and only a late rally got them to a half respectable total.

WI vs Ireland - Ireland +40.5 runs / 5 wickets 3pts @ 2 SportingBet
WI only made 117 in their warm-up chasing a not huge total from NZ and 88 of that was from the openers. I'd expect them to win the game but the win odds are not close to appealing and I know which side of the handicap i'd rather be on.

[SAMOAN]

Just some fun individual bets for me. All prices are with Ladbrokes

TOP TOURNAMENT RUNSCORER

Craig Kieswetter 40/1
Cameron White 50/1

TOP TOURNAMENT WICKET TAKER

Daniel Vettori 25/1
Kyle Mills 66/1

Not bets to be taken too seriously, but should give me an interest for small stakes.

[Quandram]

Those who are up and checking this thread might be aware that New Zealand beat Sri Lanka yesterday.

Coral are asleep at the switch and have the "To Win Group B" market priced up as

Sri Lanka 1.616
NZ 2.5
Zimb 11

I've piled in to NZ.

[Quandram]

I'll not count the above NZ Group win bet in my thread stats as it's an anomaly which will skew it all horribly one way or the other.

NZ won yesterday in a pretty tight game, couple of question marks over the choice of Sri Lankan death bowler but i'm not complaining.

The W Indies were in trouble at one point against Ireland, predictably largely of their own making, but escaped to set 139. Felt I had a shot on the handicap although but Ireland showed that they were just not good enough to get close and were well beaten.

Todays games are...

India vs Afghanistan: I don't like short favs in T20 and Afghan are only 10's and I'd want a bit more. Handicap has Afghan +65.5/6.5 @ 4/6 is not spectacular odds but i'll take them for 3pts.

Pakistan vs Bangles: Not having a bet on this one as I largely see my Bangles group winners bet as dependent on this game so I already have enough of an interest.


The story so far:
Staked: 15pts
Returned: 11.5pts
In-Play: 7pts

[7HEGR1MR3AP3R]

Have you checked your Coral statement to see if your bets still up there at the odds quoted Q?

Didnt see this thread else id have been posting regularly! Cant post much now as on the mobile but a few quick thoughts.

Australia cant play T20, end of. Theyre appalling and seem to have given up trying to learn. How theyre favs is beyond me!

The pitches are very slow so scoring will be low and will suit the spinners and sluggers. The craftsmen will struggle to get runs. The underdogs will struggle throughout I reckon, though there could be some tight games.

It'll be the usual suspects at the end. Windies are rubbish, as are the Bangla's and Ireland, Zims, & Afghans are filth. The boks arent too lively at T20 either for that matter. India, Pakistan,NZ, Sri Lanka are mustard. NZ maybe lack a bowler, and Lanka a batsman.

England are a quandry, as they could actually win it given luck,. Pietersen & especially Collingwoods runs will be crucial.

Take your pick of those 5 bad boys!

Grim

[Quandram]

The Bet exists on my statement, the potential winnings field reflects the odds at the time i placed but the odds listed for the event on the statement have been slashed to 1.143. Would have expected them to either leave everything as placed or void the bet. Will see what happens i guess.

[Quandram]

Not a great day yesterday... can probably write off the Bangles bet but mathmatically it lives on till the end of today at least.

Afghans took it close and morally they were 6.5 wickets better than India but that isn't the way cricket works so we move on.

Pushed for time so...

India vs South Africa - 5pts India @ 1.9

Don't like backing favs but the prices are fairly close and i'd rather be with India in this one

Australia vs Pakistan - 5pts Pakistan @ 2.5

Shouldn't be this much of a gulf between the teams and I'd be happy to be on Pakistan at shorter than that.

[7HEGR1MR3AP3R]

I thought India was a lump job given what ive stated previously, im just loathe to go in from the start of these events as theyre so up and down and the margins are very fine - aftertiming I know, but Kallis clogs up the innings for the boks, and god knows why coz when he goes for it he cant half belt it..............

Id also go with Pakistan, all that would hold me back is the way they folded in the tests against the aussies - having said that ,it was in the tests which are completely different, its almost like a different sport, but its like they have a mental block against aus - if they are ever gona turn them over though it`ll be in this format where they are in my opinion, at the very least the equal - so id go 5/6 which makes the 6/4 look huge. Might get involved inplay , but its been a long day and im tired. See how I feel after a few stella`s

[Quandram]

Hmmm... Australia seem to have done ok yesterday... irksome.

India beat SA though so only a small loss on the day.

Today:

Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe
5pts Zimbabwe @ 6.8 (BetFair with a possible view to trading... will see)
5pts Zimbabwe +35.5/4.5 @ 1.83 Sportingbet

Sri Lanka are without Murali who was their top wicket taker in the first match (granted that only means he got 2) and bowled his allocation for 6.25 an over... not shabby in T20. Zimbabwe won both their warm-up games against Australia & Pakistan so are no mugs. I think the price is a bit high on Zimbabwe anywa and the pressure of Sri Lanka having to win and the lack of one of their front line spinners is sufficient for me to back Zimbabwe in this one. As mentioned above I might trade a bit in-running... see how it goes, i'll try to post up here if I do.

West Indies vs England... don't know if i'm gong to get involved with this yet. If I do and it's on Englands side then i'll bet on the group winner market rather than the match as the notion of England losing to Ireland is not one i find very likely (yes I know upsets are what T20 is all about but I think England and Ireland are going in opposite directions in this format).