Bangles vs England - dunno ??

[Swooperman]

Hard to say what I think here, I'm not recommending anything, just keeping eyes open....they were 8.2 this morning , now 7.6.....I aint saying back them, I'm saying I ainst sure......

330-8, call it 350....weve got 5 batsmen, thats all. Yes, weve been here b4, Bang 420, Australa fcuked & still won....but Cook as captain ??

Worth a couple of points ??

[Punter]

I've just stuck my mortgage money on @ 7.2 on your say so Swoop's

haha, nah just a couple of points, my first ever cricket bet, i think

[yorkieacer]

hu are banglers wernt they a pop group one tine ago

[Swooperman]

England 36-1 chasing 419, in trouble

[Winrew]

Finished 178-3..
Still in with a shout Swoops ?

[Swooperman]

I think so yeah. Theres a few things going on here, & the main one is that Bangladesh came out of the 1st test pretty positively, & are as confident as they can be.
It could be argued that since England decided to bat again in the last test, the sides have been pretty even. Thats pretty simplistic but......my view is that Bangladesh have come out pretty positively here for a reason. They didnt bat first in the 1st test but they have here, why ? Do they expect the wicket to crumble ?? Doesnt normally happen out here but they'd have known it was their only chance so you never know it might be under-prepared. It turned on day 1 & they batted attackingly, whereas England arent. Theyve taken 64 overs to get to 171-3, under 3 rpo, whereas the Bangles ran at 3.57.
For England to win the match, they'd probably need to bat all of day 3 & going on 300-ish per day they'd be 50 ahead at the close. They'd need to stretch that to 200 ahead half way through day 4 & have a go at bowling the home side out. The chances of this happening when youve only picked 5 batsmen & 3 are already out is slim, though possible. Also the main man to increase the RR is KP, who's out.
Bangladesh have a record of getting into half a shout type positions & then batting badly & throwing it away, so any bet has to take that into account. Therefore I reckon they'll need a lead of 75, meaning taking 7-180. Possible ? Yes.
I think Bangladesh are good value here @ 8.4, certainly no other side would be that. The safer bet is probably laying the draw @ 1.98, but thats not as much fun England could certainly do what Ive said & get ahead, but I think the margins are too tight. You have to take into account that in 66 tests the Bangles have only won 3 (vs Zim & WIs) & drawn 6 (once against India) & england wont want to be part of that type of history, even in a draw.
Its Bangladesh's bottle that might be the problem, therefore any bet has to be regarded as gone as there might not be a chance to trade out. Keep it small

[Swooperman]

England 21 ahead with 2 in hand and have the somewhat bizarre sight of Tim Bresnan sitting on 74 not out.
There's still 2 days left so easily enough time left for a result in this match & a lot will depend on the first session in 5 hours time.
The pitch still appears to be docile but you never know what might change and if England lose their 2 remaining wickets early then the Bangles will presumably try and bat for around 2 and a half sessions aggressively and set England a target.
In normal circumstances England would not be endangering their series lead by an unnecessary chase but as I posted before it will be pretty embarassing for them to draw against this lot, not to mention Cook thinking anything other than a win wont help his long term captaincy ambitions at all.
Therefore I think there could be a twist in this match yet, the thing thats still worrying me is Bangladesh's capacity of holding holding their nerve, and also the fact they feel highly aggrieved at getting the worst of the decisions might unhinge them. Their Aussie coach Jami Siddons was apoplectic at one point.
Given an equal decision distribution, England could be in more strife than they are now, which is even, but the Bangles have played the more positive cricket for about 5 days now in this series, and theres nothing to say England are out of the woods yet.

2pnts @ 26.0 Betfair. KEEP IT SMALL

PS: Should have stuck with my convictions pre-series and in the 1st test where I backed Bell to be man of the match at 20's. I talked about him being test and series top scorer as well. Didnt take him then and not backed him in this test either. A good 6 or 7/1 missed out on

[Swooperman]

Bangladesh 172-6, 95 ahead. Thats not looking great but the skipper, Shakib Al Hasan, is still in. Hes got a test ton & averages 30 sooooooo.......can they stick with him ??
You can get 50's on the home side on Betfair now but I've just got the feeling still that there could be a twist here.
The Bangles would have to bat until tea or so to be safe, & personally I reckon they'd be better off going for as big a score as they can as the wicket has started to turn.
I'm not putting any more on the result but I have took Belly to HS again @ 12.0, 1pnt. I think there could be an edge in this yet.
In fairness we would have got a much better run for our money if the umpiring had been even. The Bangles problem is coping with the ups & downs as I posted before & it happens in the game, but Simon Mann on TMS reckoned that the umpiring howlers cost the home side 195 runs That was the game right there