Value !!

[Swooperman]

Right, got one for ya

Australia are currently 80 ahead of Pakistan with only 2 wickets left. Hussey is still in with Siddle. If there were just 2 tail enders in then I'd say its probably done & dusted but Hussey is on 73*, although youve got to bear in mind that Bollinger is a rabbit.

Now, looked into this, & stats arent everything, but:

No away side has chased down australia at Sydney since 1980, didnt count how mant tests that was but its high 20's. Australia have chased down 9 times since then.

There have been 5 failed away chases in that time.

There have only been 7 away chases to win out of 37 at Sydney ever, 6 by England, 1 by Pakistan. 11 of those under 96 !!

11 of those unsuccessful chases, the side that lost didnt make 160

Pakistan cant play at home for obvious reasons, so they havent played much cricket in the last year or so, but theyve only won 2 in the last 10

Theyve only 1 successful chase in 8, only 3 in 15, in that time they went for 117 chasing 168 vs Sri Lanka

Obviously the Aussies need more than 80, but with Hussey still there then 130 isnt out of the question. The Aussie attack isnt as good as it was, but neither is Pakistans nerve !!
Punters under pressure after winning the toss & the Aussies are saying they can win. Pakistan are saying fuck all & seem to not really believe the position theyre in.

I'm saying that the start is at 11pm UK time & the first session is 2 & 1/2 hours long. If Australia score runs then Pakistan wont stay at the 1.11 they are now & the Aussies could skittle them. If theres no runs then Punter will attack & leave holes in the field, the Pakis will bash it through to win.

Lay Pakistan @ 1.12 & back match end day 4 morning @ 3.1 to cover

[7HEGR1MR3AP3R]

Fair play if you believe in the stats etc but I couldnt disagree more

Watched the warm up and the commentators were saying pre-toss that whoever wins the toss will win the game by bowling 1st on the lush green grass and get them bowled out for a small total, bat 2nd and get a big score when the grass has levelled out, then have 2-3 days to bowl out the team again and maybe bat just once, or have a small total to aim at.

Then amazingly Aus won the toss and ponting chose to bat against a disbelieving nation! Even his team mates couldnt believe he chose to bat !

I went to bed , got up and aus were all out for 127

Its all over the Aus papers yesterday/today that Ponting made the worst decision of his life , and he getting slated like never before - he`s a man under severe pressure, and he only got a very nervy 11 toady. The team in general are nervy and its showing in their play. They got a fantastic start today with summat like 130-0 , then all hell broke loose and they finished on 286 for 8.

With a lead of 80, and 2 men left in the shed , I cant see a lead of more than 130 maximum, and thats pushing it with the new ball 1st thing zipping along, the tail enders will be easy pickings. Even hussey aint good with the new ball.

That will leave the Pakis with nearly 5 sessions to get 130. Thats surely a 1.02 poke !

The longer the game goes the easier it is to bat at this ground, and though Pakistan are used to winning tests and haven beaten Aus in 14 tests, if they cant win from this position they`ll NEVER beat aus in aus !

They`ll take their time Pak, as theyll have all the time in the world to get a very low total and no chances will be taken. Yes theyll be nervous and will probably lose 3 or 4 wickets just through that alone BUT there`s enough solid heads in the team and enough experience to asee this home cosily.

Just wish id stayed up to see Ponting to choose to bat 1st coz id have been on PAK from the start

[7HEGR1MR3AP3R]

For you to get you morning bet up you need pak to bowl Siddle and Bollinger very early, which is possible as like you said Bollinger is a tool. He got 8 (2 4s) in the 1st innings ,his highest ever score, his previous best was 2

A usual average batting score for a session here is around 90 , and they already need 80. Seen worse bets though

[7HEGR1MR3AP3R]

http://thedailypunt.com/forum/rags-r...tml#post611017

[Swooperman]

Cricinfos saying its an extended session, plus attacking fields, plus they could bottle it. I'm going on Pakistan not knowing how to win rather than Australia being good. What do you expect for laying 1.1 ?? Anyway, we'll see, I've made my point & paid my money

[ONEDUNME]

...and mine

[Swooperman]

Shit, its too cold for a jog

[7HEGR1MR3AP3R]

Originally Posted by Swooperman

Cricinfos saying its an extended session, plus attacking fields, plus they could bottle it. I'm going on Pakistan not knowing how to win rather than Australia being good. What do you expect for laying 1.1 ?? Anyway, we'll see, I've made my point & paid my money

Didnt know about the extended session - could be a good shout then. Just dont see anyway Aus can win this - I have been wrong before though, once or twice I think

Im planning on staying up and watching an hour, maybe hour and half so hopefully they skittle um out and chase down 84 sharpish

[rcgills]

Bit of strange pricing on Bet365. Australia are 7/1 to win, or 8/1 draw no bet I know the draw's near enough out of the equation, but even so.

[Swooperman]

Only day 4, not 5. strange tactics that the Paks have started with though

[Swooperman]

The tactics are pushing Australia into 7.0 & the Paks approaching 1.2

Whatever happens I've gotta make the point that I'd never back the Paks, or anyone at 1.02 chasing 130, thats madness

[Swooperman]

6.6 Australia, these Aussies are optimistic people

Goes against the grain backing Australia

[7HEGR1MR3AP3R]

6.6 is huge lay material. They CANT win. Be over 4 teatime this !

[Swooperman]

This is the game, right here, although Kaneria bowled well the 2nd half of yesterday, he bowled like a cock the first bit

[Swooperman]

It would be a kind of devon Loch situation granted but do they know how to win ?? Theyve just proved they dont know how to set fields. New ball & Hussey starting afresh