England vs South Africa 3rd test

[KingoftheKop]

Looks like a long, hard day in the field for England ahead (though I wouldn't mind a nice 34 degrees instead of this snow). As this link removed points out the biggest total ever chased down at Cape Town in recent years is 334 and SA should be more than capable of clocking that up. Everything on SA then?

[Swooperman]

I wouldnt. Wickets go down on here in clusters and whilst Ive backed decent on betfair throughout tests before the reason its so good is that the markets are over-reactionary, and 1.35 is exactly that. Yeah SA are on top but did you see the Aussies became favourites last night whilst still 100 behind ffs, & look at them now !!
SA looking strong & England wont fancy above 275

[Swooperman]

Another way of looking at this is that although 334 is the highest score to win, its not the highest score made batting 4th to draw, which is more to the point. Also people have batted out 100 & 123 overs here for the draw relatively comfortably. I still believe this wicket is hard to bat on for a new bat so wickets could yet go but if theyre 185 up its hard to see being set under 300. If theyre not bowled out then SA are going to want to set us 400+ which will mean tea tomorrow, that'll be about 120-odd overs to survive. Not saying we'll survive as pressure tells, but 1.18 is far too short

[Swooperman]

306 up, 30 minutes play left today, so say 330
As SA are losing then they wont want to be accused of not giving themselves enough time to bowl us out as they need to win to still be able to win series.
So, 450 up at lunch, think I'd have a quick slog for 45 minutes afterwards, set us 525-ish & have 4 & a 1/2 sessions at us, if they get going quick tomorrow then maybe even declare at lunch ? Dont see that, as psychologically they'll get Strauss back out in the field again & only give him 10 minutes rest & not 40.
So, ive decided, England will have to bat around 4 & a 1/2 sessions, thats a minimum of 9 hours.
Athertons great escape in Jo'burg in 95/96 was just longer

[Swooperman]

I layed SA @ 1.29 this morning before the start, theyre 1.4 now theyve just declared & set England 466, in 4 & 1/2 sessions Like I thought, although not as many as I thought

[KingoftheKop]

Hmmmm. You#ve got plenty of confience in England's batting line up then... I think they're likely to wilt in the heat. Hope I'm wrong though.

[Swooperman]

Not enough confidence that I would lay SA now @ 1.69

[Swooperman]

107-2, both openers gone in last 10 minutes. 50 minutes play left tonight, cant afford to lose another in that time

[Swooperman]

Review on KP, games in the balance right here.

Hes ok

[Swooperman]

KP gone. Trouble

[Quandram]

Fabulous rear guard action today... Colly & Bell played beautifully but it does grate slightly that neither was there at the very end. It's nice that we don't have a true bunny in the team, the better the bowlers bat the more people will look at whether we really need the 6th bat...

[Swooperman]

Yep, another good lay @ 1.29
Had a feeling for Bell last night, think hes clicked over here & has more confidence. About time too after 51 tests. TBH no matter how well he does he wont win some over
Good draw, wished I'd had the courage of my convictions @ 1.18 rather than 1.29, after saying that though, Aussies hadnt won then