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Re: County Championship 2009 Outrights
something in Bettingzone today about it all.
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It's going to struggle for column inches up against the Ashes and various Twenty20 shindigs but the County Championship has the stage to itself for a few days at least when the action gets under way on Wednesday.
And despite being much derided the domestic four-day competition has actually served up classic title races in the last couple of seasons.
It went right down to the last ball in 2007 and it was a similar story 12 months ago when Durham crept up on the rails to land the spoils in the final game.
Indeed things were so tight in the top flight that just 36 points separated the champions and relegated Kent.
And heading into the new campaign there's the welcome boost of a huge hike in prizemoney, with five times as much on offer to this season's winners.
Given how little there was between the sides last year it will come as no surprise that the top flight is tricky to call this time around but we reckon two sides stand out - Durham and Lancashire.
Starting with the north east county and there was no element of fluke about their win in 2008, the first title in their short history, because they've become a real force to be reckoned with in all forms of the game.
They were also third in Division One of the Pro40 and made the semi-finals in both the Friends Provident Trophy and the Twenty20 Cup.
And the good news is they look just as strong this term.
Plenty of the counties have new captains this year but few transitions were as seamless as Durham's, with Dale Benkenstein's protege Will Smith stepping into the hotseat with the blessing of everyone.
And the timing looks perfect because last year was a key season for Smith as he more than proved his worth with the bat, clocking an average over 50.
Shivnarine Chanderpaul returns as the overseas player when international commitments allow while Steve Harmison can again be expected to play a key role with the ball.
He took 60 wickets in 12 games last year but after the winter he again finds himself with a little to prove from an England point of view - which spells bad news for Durham's opponents.
Because while there are question marks now about Harmison at the very highest level, he remains a huge threat on the county circuit.
There's also plenty of back up too with the likes of Liam Plunkett, Graham Onions, Mark Davies, Callum Thorp and Harmison's brother Ben forming the most formidable bowling unit in the county game right now.
And an interesting addition to Durham's ranks is all-rounder Ian Blackwell who is another man trying to force his way back into the England fold.
He left Somerset after admitting he was in a "comfort zone" at Taunton and has signalled his intentions by losing 10 kilos and then promptly hitting the opening first-class century of the summer in the curtain-raiser against the MCC.
Throw in a number of youngsters trying to break into an already-successful side and it looks the perfect mix.
With the confidence of that first Championship pennant and the decent record of sides defending their title (five of the last 20) it's a surprise Durham aren't a good deal shorter than the 4/1 on offer and they have to head our staking plan.
The other team we're tipping could hardly be more contrasting at first glance.
For Lancashire last won the title outright back in 1934 and are usually completely overrated by the bookies.
But that's not the case this time as they are on offer at prices as big as 10/1 rather than vying for favouritism and we believe there are plenty of reasons to expect the Red Rose county to bloom.
They were in the mix last season despite an horrendous mid-season wobble which probably wasn't helped by plenty ofoff-field discord.
But it's a completely fresh start in 2009 - there's a new coach, a new captain and even a new cricket director.
The men in question are Peter Moores, Glen Chapple and Mike Watkinson and it looks a potent combination.
Moores is aiming to bounce back after his departure as England coach but time could easily show he was dealt a rough hand in his spell with the Three Lions and his credentials at county level could hardly be better.
In tandem with skipper Chris Adams he completely transformed Sussex from no hopers to multiple champions and he looks to have a far stronger starting position at Old Trafford.
The departures of 'veterans' Stuart Law and Dominic Cork means it will be a new-look team too and if Moores and Chapple can make things gel then they should be able to hit the ground running.
We like the look too of both overseas signings VVS Laxman and Ashwell Prince who will make it a pretty formidable middle order and the good news is that both should be available for decent chunks of the summer.
For the brittle batting was a real weak point last summer as no one who played more than two matches averaged over 42 and that was reflected in a pitiful 24 bonus points, the worst tally in either division.
One worry as always with Lancashire is that they really do lose more overs to rain than virtually every other county but that's not enough to put us off given the odds on offer this time.
Of the others there will be plenty of support for last season's runners up Nottinghamshire but it remains to be seen how they react to missing out in such agonising fashion and there's a strong chance they are not going to get many overs out of England trio Stuart Broad, Ryan Sidebottom and Graeme Swann.
Hampshire look flattered by their third-place finish and they could struggle early on with skipper Dimitri Mascarenhas on IPL duty and Pakistan leg spinner Imran Tahir on the sidelines until midsummer after fracturing his jaw in three places.
The impact of his absence shouldn't be underplayed as he took 44 wickets in just seven appearances in the second half of last season to transform them from relegation contenders.
Somerset come next in the betting but they managed just three wins in 2008 - that's one less than relegated Kent - and it's going to remain hard for them to generate positive results on the batsmen-friendly Taunton tracks.
It's a new era at Sussex now that Chris Adams has left and it will be a massive task for Michael Yardy to keep them in contention.
It was obvious how much they struggled for much of last season without the wickets of the now retired Mushtaq Ahmed because he, just as much as Adams, had been one of the foundations of their success.
And that briefly brings us on to the relegation betting as we are keen to oppose both Sussex and Hampshire given what we've said.
The 9/2 about Hampshire being in the bottom two with Coral looks more than fair because they were relegation candidates for much of last season until Tahir's intervention so his freak injury is a terrible blow.
It's 2/1 about Sussex falling through the trapdoor but the 15/2 about them finishing bottom with Stan James might be the better-value option.
And that's because there don't appear any real weak links in the top flight this time around.
Yorkshire may have lost Darren Gough as skipper but he managed just nine Championship wickets in 2008 and they should also see far more this term from former England skipper Michael Vaughan while at the other end of the scale it could be another big year for Adil Rashid who took 62 wickets last season.
And the promoted sides Warwickshire and Worcestershire will be nopushovers either.
The Bears generated some real momentum under a new coaching set up last year as they roared to the Division Two title while Worcestershire are also going in very much the right direction under the Steve Rhodes/Vikram Solanki combo.
There may be no Graeme Hick at New Road for the first time in what seems like decades but with three batsmen topping 1,000 runs in 2008 - and Hick not one of them - the future still looks bright.
We're also keen to add a few of other bets to the portfolio, starting with Marcus Trescothick at 7/1 and Murray Goodwin at 12s to top the runscoring charts.
Goodwin led the way 12 months ago with 1,343 runs and was right up there in the previous two seasons too with 1,214 and 1,649.
Sussex will need his runs more than ever this season and, while we expect it to be a long, hard campaign for the south coast side, there's no reason why Goodwin shouldn't continue to flourish with the willow.
The case for Trescothick is just as strong and we'd be staggered if he doesn't continue to dominate county attacks.
He was third last term, under a hundred runs behind Goodwin, and that was in Somerset's first season back in the top flight and with the not-so-small matter of his acclaimed autobiography to deal with off the field.
That all means that everyone knows exactly where he stands in terms of his cricketing future - with the focus entirely on Somerset and England not even on the radar anymore.
Another crucial factor in tipping him up - and a case could also be made for his skipper Justin Langer - is the run-laden possibilities of Taunton.
It's surely no coincidence that a glance at the averages show no fewer than six Somerset players averaged over 50 with the bat - that's only one less than all the batsmen from the other four sides in the top five last season - Durham, Notts, Hampshire and Lancashire - added up together.
Finally in the top flight we like the look of Mark Wagh at 4/1 to be Nottinghamshire's top runscorer.
Wagh led the way last year with 1,033, the only Notts player to pass four figures - and Samit Patel was the only man to get within 300 runs of him.
Fitness concerns-permitting, Patel has England pretensions this season so makes limited appeal at 11/2 while we're also keen to take on overseas player Adam Voges.
He didn't exactly make a huge impact at Trent Bridge last year (550 runs at 34) and his first class average is only just above 36.
It's also worth pointing out that Wagh also won this market in 2007 when his 1,310 runs put him ahead of another Aussie in the shape of the prolific David Hussey.
Dropping down into Division Two and this looks more of a minefield than ever for punters.
With no relegation to factor in there's nothing like the competition in the latter part of the season compared to Division One.
But the added variable this time around is the experimental use of the Tiflex ball which is only being used in this section (the top flight continues with Duke balls).
And early reports haven't exactly being 100% favourable, with plenty of people suggesting there could be excessive swing for bowlers to exploit.
If that's the case then it's going to be a tough summer for Division Two batsmen and we're going to keep stakes small as a result and possibly revisit the outright markets a few weeks into the season.
Kent are clear favourites and understandably so because they didn't do a lot wrong last season and it was a bit of a travesty they were relegated.
But the fact Stuart Clark isn't now joining up with them this season is a blow and at no better than 9/4 they make limited appeal at this stage despite their ultra-strongbatting line-up.
All the signs coming out of Surrey suggest this is a year for rebuilding despite the impressive backroom staff they've built up, led by Chris Adams' high profile move from Sussex.
They've also got to make do without Mark Ramprakash for the first two games (more of which later).
We're also putting a line through Middlesex who, Twenty20 triumph apart, were pretty disappointing in 2008.
Of the sides quoted in single figures that leaves Essex at 5/1 and, much like Durham in the top tier, we believe they are perfectly equipped to fight on all fronts.
They were the best one-day side around 12 months ago, winning the FP Trophy as well as Division Two in the Pro40 and reaching finals day in the Twenty20.
But they couldn't quite sustain their promotion push in the four-day game, eventually finishing in fourth after being thereabouts for much of the campaign.
Their pre-season form suggests they've still got plenty of momentum and getting Danish Kaneria for a full season is another point in their favour.
He played nine matches last time yet still topped the averages and most wickets standings and with Pakistan having no Test commitments this summer he's likely to play an even fuller part.
If there's to be a surprise in this section then it could come from Leicestershire who might just be worth a small each-way interest at 33s.
There have been plenty of comings and goings at Grace Road but they seem to have turned to home-grown youngsters this time around and that could pay dividends in any number of ways.
New Zealand paceman Iain O'Brien also looks a useful addition and the Foxes showed plenty of promise early on last season when they led the Division Two table before attention switched to the Twenty20.
Their relatively early exit in that competition appeared to take the wind out of their sails but in a second tier that might not take a great deal of winning the 33s looks decent value at a fifth the odds 1,2,3.
Finally we'll come back to our earlier comment about Surrey's Ramprakash as his suspension for the first two matches means it might just be worth getting involved in the top run scorer market.
Ramps' figures have been pretty astonishing in the last few years and we wouldn't normally dream of opposing him.
However - and this is relative - he did drop markedly in 2008 with his 1,235 runs when compared to 2,000+ totals and averages of over 100 in both of the previous two campaigns.
Having to sit out the opening two games is another reason to think about taking him on and both Hills and Ladbrokes each appear to have given us an opportunity.
The Magic Sign have framed a 10-man list where only those players count and it's headed by Ramprakash at 2s while second favourite Chris Rogers is another who will almost certainly miss the opening fixture of the season due to a delay in issuing his visa.
The man who catches the eye further down the list is Kent skipper Robert Key at a whopping 12/1.
By his own high standards he had an average 2008 with 686 runs but 1,250 runs in 2007 underline his claims.
Clearly there's a slight worry he might be involved with the England set up at some point this summer but there's plenty of competition in that sphere and 12s (also a fifth the odds 1,2,3) simply looks too big.
It's a similar story at Hills where Key's county colleague Martin van Jaarsveld, not in the Ladbrokes 10, is the call at 9/1 in their 12-man chart.
The Professional Cricketers' Association Player of the Year in 2008 scored 1,150 runs in the Championship, following up 1,011 in 2007 and 1,217 in 2006 and there's no reason why he shouldn't at least match those sort oftallies, especially as he's playing for the strong favourites in the weaker second tier.
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County Championship 2009 Outrights
08-01-2009, 12:17
