England in India tests

[Swooperman]

Now this is what you could call complicated

After the Mumbai atrocities the tour itinerary was changed & it seemed touch & go whether England would return, certainly in any kind of strength.
That they have is something for which they are rightly being applauded, particularly as they've taken on a 'one for all' approach which I'll admit shocked me as I thought the chances of Harmy going back over there were about akin to me waking up next to Kate Beckinsale. The cynics will say that it has a lot to do with the pulling power of the IPL & only a fool would think its not connected, but personally I think a lot has to be said for KPs captaincy here & this is why I'm so optimistic about next summers Ashes.

Test starts thursday 4am UK time so its not do or die on the betting just yet, but here are my thoughts:
Theres apparently a cyclone around although by all accounts its weakening. Practice was affected today & there is a history of rain affected draws at this ground in recent years. The severity is up in the air depending on which site you look at. I use Accuweather & they dont appear too concerned in truth, but as I say its questionable.
The test hasnt been moved to Chennai for long & its been raining on & off ever since so it's hard to see a real rock hard batting wicket, obviously this aids the chances of a result & puts us in the age old quandary of possibly time being lost but the wicket's result friendly.
When I looked at the Betfair odds I was staggered in truth & I find myself in the position of finding both results attractive. I think that the draw @ 1.88 shouldnt be backed at this point but I'm tempted to delay laying it as I feel it could shorten still further. There is no advantage of backing the draw the draw at those odds as you just face 5 days of terminal toothache type pain.

Further to my thoughts of a result is the siege mentality. The security is apparently overwhelming & there is a thought that the Indians are enjoying it less than the English, but whichever way it might affect patience & therefore the draw chances. I also think the English team could emerge more 'together' from this experience. Also I remember a test in Galle a year or so back where emotion was running high & it was generally accepted that the game would be played in worse conditions than normal....this could happen here after the symbolism of Mumbai & also the players arent allowed out due to security & may therefore want to play more than normal in bad conditions.

Normally India at home @ 2.5 I would regard as a must bet & I wouldnt put anyone off taking it, but England @ 13.5 ??
To my mind this totally undervalues a decent test side because of the situation & the fact that they were getting thumped in the preceding ODIs, & obviously because India won in England last year. Yes India are a hard nut to crack at home but this might not be a normal match, & my personal belief is that England arent far away from Australia (theyre certainly better in spin bowling) & theres no way on this earth Australia would be trading at that price....madness.

I'm keeping stakes smallish I think until we see whats happening but I reckon a draw lay @ 1.89 & a small top up of England @ 13.5 are on the cards

[Swooperman]

Oh yeah, I forgot to add that England won a test in India on the last tour under Freddy as well

[kompressaur]

Good to see your cricket posts Swooperman. Shame we have no one that shares your passion. there must be others. I just saw this

A sensational batting performance in their second innings in Chennai means that it's India who hold an unassailable 1-0 advantage heading into the second and final Test in Mohali this week.

They chased down the fourth-highest score in Test history to dash England's hopes after the tourists had dominated for most of the first four days.

The Three Lions deserve plenty of credit given their lack of any match practice but they are surely going to struggle to pick themselves up again in such a short space of time.

They've also got selection issues to address, with Ian Bell's position at three under real threat while Monty Panesar could be axed if they go in with just the one spinner.

There are also big concerns over skipper Kevin Pietersen who revealed after the Chennai game that he'd been playing with a fractured rib. He reckons he'll be fine to play in Mohali but scores of 4 and 1 in the opening Test don't bode well.

The early signs seem to be that conditions in Mohali might be more in England's favour and going for an extra seamer in the fit-again Stuart Broad is a definite option.

However it remains a huge ask to get anything out of the series because the odds are stacked so heavily in India's favour.

Their only defeat in Mohali came in the very first Test to be played there back in 1994 and you only have to go back a couple of months to their thumping 320-run victory over Australia at the ground.

Virtually all their top order batsmen prospered in that game while spinners Harbhajan Singh and debutant Amit Mishra proved the difference with the ball.

It was a similar story on England's last tour when a fascinating game turned India's way on the final couple of days, Anil Kumble producing a man of the match display with nine wickets.

However that game also featured plenty of time lost to the weather and four draws in the last seven helps explain why the stalemate is again no better than 11/10.

Punters should also note that the game could be hit by fog and bad light, a common feature at this time of the year in northern India - and the floodlights won't be used to compensate.

We're therefore going to leave the match prices alone and look elsewhere for an interest.

The first we're keen on is Owais Shah to top score for England at 13/2 with Boylesports.

He was desperately unlucky not to make the team for the first Test after top scoring in the one dayers despite being shunted up and down the order and should get his chance this week (it's money back if he's not in the starting XI).

He scored 88 and 38 on his Test debut in India a couple of years ago so conditions clearly suit and he also has the advantage of being fresher than most which has to be taken into account in back-to-back Tests.

We're also going to get with Andrew Flintoff, in terms of tipping his player performance to be over 100.5 points.

He remains England's 'go to' bowler and four wickets, two catches and 22 runs in Chennai equated to a make up of 122 on bet365's scoring system (1pt per run, 20pts per wicket and 10pts per catch).

His performance there with the ball was even more impressive given the relatively unresponsive surface and his display in the 2006 Test in Mohali suggests this week's venue should be much more to his liking.

For despite India running out winners by nine wickets, Flintoff scored 71 and 50 with the bat, took 4-96 in the first innings and also snaffled a catch for a final make up of 211.

Our final piece of advice is getting with India's spinners on the man of the match front.

We've already mentioned how Harbhajan and Mishra thrived on the surface against Australia just seven weeks ago and a glance back at recent Tests in Mohali point strongly towards a spinner playing the key role again, with Anil Kumble snaffling the MoM award in both Tests against England at the ground.

There are doubts about whether England will go with both Panesar and Graeme Swann so the Indian pairing are the ones to focus on, with Harbhajan a 10/1 chance and Mishra on offer at 14s.

FLINTOFF TO ROAR FOR THREE LIONS: Bettingzone Cricket Betting News - India v England, Test & County Cricket Betting and Tips.

[ONEDUNME]

I'm on the draw on the second test due to the big mouthed geyser who does the cricket on talksport. At half 6 this morning he reckoned it was nailed on.

After India dominated on day one and the weather being unpredictable, that should make the draw even more likely.....please say yes

Not being able to deposit any cash today as I've been on the move, I've closed my bet on United to win the world club championship in order to bung the cash on this draw instead so it's a case of sit and wait now.

[Swooperman]

I've layed the draw tbh, although not for big bucks. The lights going to be a problem here but if India can motor on & get to 450 tomorrow I reckon England might implode. Defeat in the last test would have been a massive blow & I reckon they might well be looking homewards

[Swooperman]

In fact I've also just had a small bet on England @ 34.0
Thats way too big. Yeah theres been 18 overs lost today but to be 33's India should be out of sight in my eyes. Theyre only 1 down granted but they havent made 200 yet !! They could be bowled out for 300 !!

Cant see it mind but hey, whaddya expect for 33's ??

[ONEDUNME]

Thanks for the bad news buddy

[Swooperman]

You'll be ok mate probably. The light & Indias negativity when in front is whats influencing the market which is why I think its worth a gamble on a result but I've only bet small so I'm not confident.
You on the other hand have put your millions on the 1.25 draw, which if you lose could single handedly kick start the UKs economy