India in England

[Swooperman]

Dhoni appears to be playing so no Yuvraj, but the main talking point today is that Hoggard has suffered a back spasm & is likely to miss the test, which will mean that both Broad & Anderson will play. This will be the first time in 6 years that England have taken the field without Freddy, Harmy & Hoggy

Gives others the chance though but it did make me think about my draw lay in all honesty as I reckoned England were obviously the likelier winners, but I think there'll be something in the pitch as they must have had it covered a lot of the last few days so it might start quite damp.
I've thought about it & I believe its a result pitch & it just remains to be determined whether enough overs will be bowled.....so I've had my small lay

Draw lay @ 1.55 Betfair 22pnts to win 40pnts
Karthik Indian series runs @ 10/1 B365 4pnts
Karthik overall series runs @ 20/1 Sp.Odds 2pnts EW 1/4 1-3
Bell England series runs @ 7/1 Sp.Odds 4pnts
Bell overall series runs @ 16/1 Sp.Odds 2pnts EW 1/4 1-3
Karthik 1st test Indian runs @ 7/1 B365 3pnts
Bell 1st test Eng runs @ 6/1 Sp.Odds 2pnts
Pietersen to hit more match 6's than Dhoni @ 4/1 Lads 5pnts

I cant help feeling that KP bet is a good price, although there was a tie available @ 1/3, & I nearly threw the kitchen sink at it......but wisely refrained

[Swooperman]

One more:

Sidebottom MoM @ 14/1 B365 2pnts

[Pie-chucker]

Looks like we'll get a morning's cricket today, then the players will be wearing out the pavilion steps for the rest of the weekend. Hope the hover cover has a full tank of petrol.

Ganguly perf Under 83 @ 8/11 at 22pts
England highest opening partnership 1st innings @ 4/5 at 10pts
Cook HS @ 4/1 at 8pts
Broad HS @ 100/1 at 2pts (Blue Sq - juicy price)

[Pie-chucker]

Tremlett, not Broad. interesting.

Clouding over already!

speculative punt

BUY Cook runs @ 55 at 0.5pts

[Swooperman]

I'm getting pissed off with these spamming twats

Anyway, 268-4 & really I think that flatters India, as their bowlings been poor. Kumble was good & Sreesanth improved after appearing overawed early on, Singh is young....but Zaheer was pants
Shite forecast tomorrow but with 4 down its very open. India will feel with an improved performance they might get England for 350ish, whereas England want to push for 500. Obviously 500+ rules India out, just leaving whether they can stand the pressure as the question

Layed draw @ 1.23 @ Betfair 6.9pnts to win 30pnts

[Pie-chucker]

Accuweather seems to be cheering up, a bit.

If the pop-gun seamers can't get the new ball 'in the right areas' then 450 looks a shoe-in. Spin puts it at 450-465 which is hard get involved with.

[kompressaur]

Sorry to see the spam attacks Kegman. 4 more unapproved. I know you guys know your cricket better than i can copy and paste but whilst i'm here i'll add this.

By Geoffrey Riddle
LAYERS were celebrating a 1.01 success on Betfair yesterday as England's capitulation to India's moving ball at Lord's saw first-innings runs backers do their dough. Kevin Pietersen and Ryan Sidebottom emerged from the thunderstorms hoping to add to their overnight 268-4.

With the wicket having looked looking easy-going on the first day, punters were eager to support the home side and £1,500 was matched at the exchange's minimum odds for England to score more than 300. The tourists had other ideas, however, and once RP Singh had removed nightwatchman Sidebottom, Sri Sreesanth and Zaheer Khan mopped up and England were all out for 298.

India toiled in the field on Thursday with 80.3 overs yielding just four wickets, but yesterday they took six scalps in just 10.5 overs and ten wickets fell on the day. It was a meek batting performance by the Three Lions after their solid start. And so unexpected was the collapse that England runs were being quoted at over 450 with the fixed-odds bookmakers atthe close on Thursday evening.

There were some small successes for punters, though.

When Sreesanth trapped debutant Chris Tremlett for a duck, Ladbrokes reported that they took £2,000 for England to score under 327.5 and all their trade on their highest quote of 520.5 about England runs was under. The draw stood at 1.25 on Betfair at stumps on Thursday – although over £50,000 has been matched at 1.16 – and the 1.74 as play came to a late close with India on 145-4 last night might be too shortyet.

The forecast is for more showers, but with an extra hour per day on offer, draw layers could yet profit.

Stan James – second Test: >12-5 England, 4 India, 4-6 draw; India first-innings runs: evens 299 or fewer, 7 300-315, evens 316 or more; top India first- innings scorer: 11-10 S Ganguly, 11-4 W Jaffer, 10-3 V Laxman, 5 M Dhoni, 50 R Singh, 66 A Kumble, 200 Z Khan, S Sreesanth.

Racingpost

[Pie-chucker]

145/4. Game has moved on remarkably fast - good for draw layers

Draw still favourite but perhaps now the least likely of outcomes. Laxman, Dhoni & (Kumble) to come. Ganguly's back was seizing up towards the end, and could hamper him today. This afternoon, morning forecast looks grim. Spin have India 305-320 which could be India optimistic. Runs on board theory, England look well-paced... also with last use of pitch.

England win @ 5-2 at 20pts

[Swooperman]

Thanks for removing that spam shit Komp although where Kegman came into it I'm unsure

Very happy with my draw lay now in truth. Anderson & Sidebottom bowled superbly to dismiss India for 201 & a lead of 97 in a low scoring game is enormous.
Betfair have England around 1.7 & the draw 3.1 as they resume after bad light & rain on 8-0 but plays allowed to go on until 7:30 tonight to compensate. With all the bad weather around the country & in my neck of the woods its been horrendous although not as bad as in Worcester where I play. New Road is again flooded & the word is that they wont play cricket there again this season So its difficult to judge on how long the weather will hold but with this pitch playing as it is then 5 sessions could well be enough.
If theres enough play today for England to double their lead which should only take about 2 hours then being 200 ahead they'll be in a strong position, but if theres something like another 3 to 3 & a half hours today then a lead of 300 is possible by tonight. I can only see India having a chance if they dismiss England for 200 or less as I cant see them chasing down more than 300, & thats a tall order itself as it would need a good ton from someone.
The wicket & overhead conditions have meant that the middle & lower orders havent stood a prayer once the bowlers have settled. The top order players with patience have survived but the proof is on the cards that England lost 9-80 & 8-46 & India lost 8-95, 7-67 & 6-46, proving that only the really technically adept top order players have survived. Indias problem is that they cant afford Englands lower order to contribute as if they do the game has gone....although I guess its all set up for Tendulkar to ton & get his name on the board but its a tough ask.
England are going like a train, 31-0 now just while I post & they'll be looking to still be batting at lunch tomorrow & re-evaluate their position then.
The weather may yet have the final say but I wouldnt like to have backed the draw @ 1.5 or 1.22 & be sitting on it now. Yes I stand to lose 28.9pnts to win 70, but thats within my WIs 3rd test winnings so its worth gambling

[Pie-chucker]

77/2, a lead of 174. Spin have England second innings at 270-280.

270 would give a target of, er, 367 which would be a very conservative declaration. And always a chance, quite a fair chance, of England being done for less than 270 anyway.

SELL England second innings @ 270 at 1pt

[Swooperman]

159-5 just before lunch but the key is that Pietersen is still in on 60 with Prior to support. Theyve slowed up approaching lunch so as to consolidate.....ooh, nearly a run out .....erm, yeah Right, 161-5 & a lead of 257.
Weather seems ok although I havent checked as I'm just going on the commentators & it makes no difference to me as I'm not bailing out now.
The key to the whole thing is now the first 30-45 minutes after lunch. India know that with the nature of this pitch its been proven that you have to be technically sound to survive, & they'll expect to rip through the tail as has happened in the last 2 innings in the match. Therefore if they can seperate this pair then they know that chasing under 300 isnt as far fetched as it sounds......although obviously still a big ask India will give themselves a chance of that with their batting order.
For me KP & Prior will look to bat 20 minutes after lunch & then push on, & if theyre not seperated within 45 minutes then the lead will be over 300 by that time & quite possibly 400 by tea. I'm not actually sure what time they can play on until tonight but I'd imagine that they'd want an hour at India certainly, but as Pie said I think thats immaterial & they'll be bowled out around tea time or just beyond, but if I'm right then thats around 400 & asking India to comfortably score the largest total of the match...which is likely to be the case anyway.
Assuming the weather holds, I guess the obvious question is whether India have a realistic chance of chasing this down. With the batting line up that they have I dont think you can ever say never, but facing facts England are likely to seize momentum early no matter how big the chase, as the 2 openers generally get split early, putting Dravid under severe pressure. Dravid & Ganguly have previous at this venue, & Laxman has a couple of 50's or thereabouts to his name here, but Tendulkars knock of 37 in the first innings is his HS at Lords......so the scene is set

I've had a good look at precedents during the lunch break & I've come up with this:

In the last 30 Lords tests, the team batting last has been set over 150 14 times. Theyve only got there twice (Eng 282-3 v NZ 2002 & Eng 191-8 v WIs 2000) drawing 4 & losing 8. In the same time frame there have been 7 defeats for sides chasing over 200.

Perhaps more startlingly, & assuming England get the extra 42 runs after lunch.....which is certainly not guaranteed.....India will be left chasing the highest total of the match to win. I was surprised that this has been the case 18 times at Lords, 15 of them since WW2.
Of that 18, the win has only ever been achieved once, by the WIs in 1984. Set 342 to win they unbelievably knocked it off in just 66 overs for just 1 wicket !!! I watched Greenidge go ballistic that day & maybe we should discount this one on the basis that this WIs side was a one off
Of the remaing 17 occasions, 3 were draws.....Eng 254-8 chasing NZs 407 in 1994, WIs 242-6 chasing Engs 323 in 1976 & Australias 329-3 chasing Engs 484 in 1975. So barring WIs deficit of 81 the other 2 were over 150 adrift.

That leaves 14 defeats, & excepting the Ashes test of 1888 where England were chasing 124 which was comfortably the highest score in the match & lost by 62 runs.......nobody else has come within 125 runs of chasing the total required !! Thats quite a lot tbh & I can see India falling for around the 175-200 mark that would suggest.
If England set India 300, I'd give India about a 20% chance of getting it. Closer to 350 ?? 10%

[Swooperman]

282 all out with KP out for 134 & Prior showed good support with 42. They moved the game on & I think out of Indias reach in that afternoon session, & KP in particular really accelerated. Indias heads went really but even then they made short work of the tail.
Still 43 overs today & with no weather interruption this session is pivotal. For India to have realistic hopes of winning then they cant afford to lose more than one of Dravid, Tendulkar, Ganguly & Laxman tonight......so assuming both openers will have gone then 3 wickets is an absolute tops for them, for about 120 On second thoughts I dont think they can afford to lose more than 2 maximum & I cant see them getting much more than 100-120 tonight (assuming a 6:30 finish) At least one of the openers has to contribute as well & its imperative they keep their star players away from the new ball by batting at least 15-20 overs.
I dont give India much of a chance tbh & Betfair make England 1.71 favourites as well. I've been banging on about technique needed on this wicket & I think when you look at the nature of KPs dismissal & both of Bells as well, both playing on, I think theres a 2 paced nature to it with indifferent bounce as well. Before Prior was out he snicked 2 behind that didnt carry, although obviously it was an old ball.
Going on the way the tail has been wiped out I'd say the first 4 Indian wickets need to raise 300 runs

England winn assuming the weather holds, I reckon 4 down tonight

[Swooperman]

Gower & Botham on Sky looking at the 'highest run chases at Lords' list:

Gower: (sarcastically) I'm a bit surprised that West Indies 344-1 is at the top of that chart
Botham: Well......you declared !!
Gower: Well.....you bowled !!

[Swooperman]

Not much swing yet though, draws favourite again on Betfair.

KPs 1 x 6 puts me in a good position though, if Dhoni doesnt hit one then it covers most of my draw lay. I dont fancy Dhoni in this situation either with the ball potentially moving around, hes a flat track bully in my book that doesnt handle pressure well at all Remember him getting out when England levelled the series early last year in India ?? Pathetic

Although hes a flat track bully that can hit it miles

[Batsinilas]

from.Live Scores/Stats

Cric Gyan: Tendulkar would play a key role for the Indians in this steep run chase. He has some pleasing records to back him as well. He has played 10 Test matches against England in England, batted in 16 innings and has gathered 1074 runs at a brilliant average of 71.60 which includes 4 centuries and 4 fifties. This should please a lot many Indian fans but the other side of things is that this match is being played at Lord's and we all know that he hasn't fared well here. In the 3 matches he has played at Lord's, he has scored at an average of 19.20 which is way below standard and his highest score here came in the first innings itself which is a meagre 37. Now this stat would please the English fans. Take that for a stat!!!