[GETT1NLOTS]

14 May-17:15 Lincoln City v Macclesfield 2.10 3.25 3.00
15 May-17:15 Northampton v Southend 2.10 3.25 3.00

All odds with Bet 365

Place your selections with analysis please.

[crowie]

Again not tips as such but some stats on winners and qualifiers for these games from RFO today. Based on last 10 seasons of the play offs.

Division 2 has the clearest trends.

In the game between the 1st seeds (whoever finished 4th) and the 4th seeds (7th placed) the 1st seeds have qualified for the final 9 times out of the last 10 match ups. That would be Southend to qualify at Northamptons expense this time.

Likewise 2nd seeds (5th) have knocked out 3rd seeds (6th) 7 times from the last 10 match ups.

Overall thats 16 out of 20 match ups where the higher placed side has gone through.

The 1st seed has gone on to promotion 8 times out of 10.

1pt level stakes on the 1st seed over last 10 years would have yielded a 16.62pt profit.


With this in mind I will have

5pts on Southend to gain promotion at 3.65 with Betfair

Will also try and get matched on Southend to qualify. Looking at laying Northampton who are currently 1.78 to qualify.

Likewise will look to have a small interest in Macclesfield to knock out Lincoln. Market pretty dead on Betfair at present with the Macc price 1.87 - 2.30


Would be interested in any team news or anything that could explain why given the past 10 seasons trends Northampton are favoured over Southend on Betfair.

[crowie]

Markets still not too lively on Betfair which is a bit surprising.

Here's what I can't understand though

When Lincoln are available at 1.83 with Bet365 and 1.80 at a couple of other places why does someone take (very small) bits of my 1.75 on Betfair?

Likewise with Northampton available at 2.00 on Blue Sq and 1.90 in a few places why does someone take small bit of my 1.85 on Betfair?

[crowie]

Did a bit more reading today on these play off games and I am going for an about turn on the Lincoln v Macclesfield tie.

I had laid a very small bit of Lincoln at 1.75 on Betfair so got rid of that. Instead I am taking Lincoln to win at home tomorrow evening.

From Sporting Life

While their form has been slightly up and down in recent weeks they have recorded good victories against promoted Swansea and Scunthorpe, and their semi-final opponents Macclesfield, managing to keep clean sheets in all three games.

At Sincil Bank they have not conceded a goal in their last five games, and this is the sort of form you want your defence to be in heading into come the end-of-season promotion lottery.

Indeed, with just three defeats from their last 10 games Alexander would have settled for that back in March and he has come out in the press this week and stated that his players are confident, relaxed and used to playing these extra games!

Their opponents Macclesfield have surprised a lot of people by the way they have performed this season and great credit must go to Brian Horton and his coaching staff.

Rated as potential relegation candidates at the start of the season the Silkmen made a fine start and never looked back, and more than deserve their place in the play-offs.

However, just two wins from their last nine doesn't bode well in terms of carrying any sort of form into these vital games and as we see year after year, it's the sides that hit form late on that nearly always prosper.

The fact they were well beaten by the Imps just a few weeks ago will not have helped matters and the pressure will be on them to take a first leg lead back to Lincolnshire.

So Lincoln no goals conceded in last 5 at home, 4 wins (including 2-0 over Macclesfield) and a draw in that period. Game before that, on 5th March, saw them lose 3-2 at home to Wycombe. You then have to go back another 10 games to 23rd October to find another home loss for Lincoln.

Up against Macclesfield, as mentioned above 2 wins in 9, one of those on last day of season v poor Rushden. No wins in last 5 away and only scored 1 in those 5 away games.

On closer inspection a Lincoln home win in the first leg looks a good bet.

5pts on Lincoln at 2.15 with Pinnacle.

Lincoln probably need a decent home win as Macclesfield are decent on their own ground and Lincoln have lost last 3 away.

[GETT1NLOTS]

I fancy Lincoln strongly today. Macclesfield Town have been poor away from home lately losing 3 and drawing 2 of their last five games away in the regular season. They have not recorded an away victory since a 0-1 triumph at Shrewsbury on 12th March.

2.10 on the home win seems to have a sniff of value accordingly.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Hmmmmm - one second.

I just found this from the match report when the two teams last met.

Macclesfield were made to pay for wasting a hatful of chances against promotion rivals Lincoln.
The hosts broke the deadlock when Peter Gain and Simon Yeo combined to set up a simple tap-in for Richard Butcher.

Macclesfield's Mark Bailey was twice clean through but could not find a way past City keeper Alan Marriott.

Lincoln grabbed the second when Yeo's shot was kept out by Macclesfield keeper Steve Wilson but substitute Francis Green tucked away the rebound.

It seems that Town had some decent chances that day but could find the back of the net. I still fancy that Lincoln will do it but I might have a draw saver on the side.