FA Cup 3rd Round 6th/7th/8th Jan

[Kop66]

Yes i was aware of that stat natrass but as you point out it's a league lower.
They did Swansea in an earlier round and that was a very good result but in the last round they got a lucky win at Hereford. In their last 5 games they have only scored 2 goals, conceding 14 at the same time.

[crowie]

Blackburn are 1.45 with Interwetten/Globet, don't think we will see better than that, Bet365 cut to 1.39 now and Betfair 1.43 - 1.47.

[Bigkegman]

Only 2 for me are Everton away to Millwall and Aston Villa away to Hull.

Both teams IMO should win against lowly of low Championship material.

I've already placed a big double.

[natrass]

Villa away to Doncaster and Millwall at home to Birmingham ... those two carling Cup games put me off BK ... I think the EPL sides put out strong sides as well.

That, and given the odds, I might swerve it.

I just can't see any value anywhere in the whole coupon.

[Computer Guy]

I can agree with Villa, but not certain bout the toffees. Somewhere during the day there will be an 'upset' so at the moment i'm still trying to find this banana-skin.

[A.M.P]

Well, this has piqued my interest.

Think some of the games I'm going to be on been mentioned.

West Ham away to Norwich at 2.3? Personally aside from Sunderland I'd take any of the premiership at odds against versus all but two or 3 of the Championship. If that makes sense. 2 points for me on Betfair at 2.32.

I've just picked up Wigan for 1.81 for 5 points aswell. Looking at that market I've a very strong feeling the at best 8/11 won't last. Stan James goes 4/7, as does Sky. I think this price will be 4/6 come kick off so the 1.81 is a great price. I'm away to bed now else I might get ideas about fishing for a serious bet at that price ( think there's about 70 quid left).

Lastly I'm waiting for 1.95 for Brentford to be matched but I've got no qualms taking the 1.9 if need be. Two teams a league apart going in opposite direction and Mad Dog will have his bees buzzing for this. Stockport despite recording a narrow home win against Cheltenham last time out are still a team in transition.

Thanks and Goodnight.

AMP

[Keith]

Too soon for me to make decisions but in my experience we need to be wary of certain managers who have rotated their squads for Cup matches even from the lower divisions as they regard the league as being their priority.

My list includes:

Wigan

Reading

Sheff U

Brentford

Huddersfield

Hull

I am sure that there are a few more and I'll tell you about them when I can remember who they are

[toscani]

There can be no doubt that we are down to bare bones at the cottage at the moment,dioup out ,malbranque,bocanegra,voltz,all injured as well.Coleman has promised to play his strongest team possible,which judging by the carling cup games,earlier this season,is coleman speak for a team full of reserves.

So if you fancy a little punt on the o,s well you should get a run for your money.Martin ling should certainly send his boys out to attack us straight from the off.They are apparantly bringing 4,000 fans,(they never ever brought that when we used to play them on a regular basis 10 yeras ago or so).

Having said that with hopefully mcbride and helgusson up front,matty timlin on the left supplying the bullets,we should have enough to see off the o's.But as we all know it's the cup and anything can happen.good luck one and all

[wazik]

I havent had a look at this in detail yet but I will be diving in tommorow. I love these cup games....you know last year for the man u v exeter game that was a draw I had Exeter +4 at.....10/11. I havent bettered it yet, dont think I ever will.

[crowie]

Originally Posted by Was

Too soon for me to make decisions but in my experience we need to be wary of certain managers who have rotated their squads for Cup matches even from the lower divisions as they regard the league as being their priority.

My list includes:

Wigan

Reading

Sheff U

Brentford

Huddersfield

Hull

I am sure that there are a few more and I'll tell you about them when I can remember who they are

Sheff Utd caught my eye Was but as you mention, how serious will they/their manager take the competition. I know Warnock mentioned their cup run last year (?) cost them promotion in his opinion.

Likewise Bolton often change things about. Bolton v Wigan in this seasons Carling must have been a cracker, each side kicking towards their own goal

[moDtheGod]

I've come in specifically to warn about Sheff Utd actually. Warnock (and most of our fans) don't give a toss. We've been on great cup runs the last few years and then thrown away promotion because of fatigue. He put the kids out against Reading in the league cup and he's already confirmed fringe players and promising youngsters will play in the FA cup. He means it

I've staked a few on Colchester to win, plenty of value!

[kompressaur]

just looking at last years results to keep me in perspective-

Round 3
Blackburn 3-2 Cardiff (R)
Boston Utd 0-1 Hartlepool (R)
Exeter 0-2 Man Utd (R)
Fulham 2-0 Watford (R)
Blackpool 0-1 Leicester (R)
Burnley 1-0 Liverpool
Swansea 0-1 Reading (R)
Arsenal 2-1 Stoke
Yeading 0-2 Newcastle
Birmingham 3-0 Leeds
Bournemouth 2-1 Chester
Cardiff 1-1 Blackburn
Charlton 4-1 Rochdale
Chelsea 3-1 Scunthorpe
Coventry 3-0 Crewe
Derby 2-1 Wigan
Hartlepool 0-0 Boston Utd
Hull City 0-2 Colchester
Ipswich 1-3 Bolton
Leicester 2-2 Blackpool
Luton 0-2 Brentford
Man Utd 0-0 Exeter
Milton Keynes 0-2 Peterborough
Northampton 1-3 Southampton
Notts Co 1-2 Middlesbro
Oldham 1-0 Man City
Plymouth 1-3 Everton
Portsmouth 1-0 Gillingham
Preston 0-2 West Brom
QPR 0-3 Nottm Forest
Reading 1-1 Swansea
Rotherham 0-3 Yeovil
Sheff Utd 3-1 Aston Villa
Sunderland 2-1 C Palace
Tottenham 2-1 Brighton
Watford 1-1 Fulham
West Ham 1-0 Norwich
Wolves 2-0 Millwall

[PTDSEI]

I`d love it if Hull stuffed Villa. I fucking hate O`Leary.

I`ll post more during the week :-)

[kompressaur]

it is during the week PTD. Mayeb some of these will whet your appetite from sporting odds

The Great Leveller
5 (or more) Premiership Clubs To Be Knocked Out In The FA Cup 3rd Round - 6/4

Premiership Goal Spree
Every Premiership Team To Score In The FA Cup 3rd Round 100/1

Cup Kings
Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United - ALL TO WIN - 4/5
ARSENAL (home to Cardiff), CHELSEA (home to Huddersfield), LIVERPOOL (away to Luton), MANCHESTER UNITED (away to Burton Albion

Home Bankers
Manchester City, Newcastle, Sheffield Utd, Fulham and Sunderland - ALL TO WIN - 2/1
MANCHESTER CITY (home to Scunthorpe), NEWCASTLE (home to Mansfield), SHEFFIELD UTD (home to Colchester), FULHAM (home to Leyton Orient), SUNDERLAND (home to Northwich)

Away Bankers
Birmingham, Middlesbrough, Liverpool, Man Utd and Tottenham - ALL TO WIN - 3/1
BIRMINGHAM (away to Torquay), MIDDLESBROUGH (away to Nuneaton), LIVERPOOL (away to Luton), MAN UTD (away to Burton), TOTTENHAM (away to Leicester)

Magic Of The Cup
Nuneaton, Tamworth, Northwich and Burton - ANY TO WIN - 4/1
NUNEATON (away to Middlesbrough), TAMWORTH (away to Stoke), NORTHWICH (away to Sunderland), BURTON (home to Man Utd)

Cant't see any specials for them on their site but they usually offer a free promotional bet on weekends like these. I'll post one up if they do.

[kompressaur]

Might as well post the bookie bumph. Always worth a read over elevenses

Take A Chance On Wild Rovers And White Hot Laners!
Those people who say anyone can win the FA Cup are, of course, correct but history tends to point to the usual suspects. The last 10 FA Cup Finals have all been won by either Man Utd (4/1 with bet365 for this year’s competition), Chelsea (3/1), Arsenal (11/2) or Liverpool (9/1). In the 1980’s there were 7 different winners, and 9 in the 70’s. This just confirms the dominance of the ‘big 4’ and it’s no surprise to see all four teams’ head this year’s betting.

It’s often hard to see past the favourites, but Tottenham look a standout bet at best-priced 14/1, considering their excellent league form. Spurs have a comfortable looking tie at Leicester in the third round, (9/2 Leicester, 4/7 Spurs and 5/2 the draw – Live on BBC1), but have the makings of an excellent cup team. They’re difficult to beat and will believe they have a genuine opportunity of winning this trophy. Another team who look overpriced are Blackburn at 50/1. Mark Hughes has quietly moved Rovers up to eighth in the Premiership, and have a home tie against QPR (2/5 Blackburn, 6/1 QPR and 3/1 the draw). When you consider they’re double the price of Middlesbrough (25/1 – 16th) and three times bigger than Newcastle (14/1 – 11th), that has to be value, but be quick. The 50/1 is the biggest price among all UK bookmakers so it may not last!

FA Cup Picks:
Tottenham to win the FA Cup @ 14/1
Blackburn to win the FA Cup @ 50/1

Pool Of Talent Will Be Too Much For Hatters
With every Premiership team taking on lower league opposition, there’s bound to be a shock or two. The key is, of course, to avoid those banana skins (Remember Exeter last year?). Man Utd take on non-league opposition again this year, but can’t really be backed at 1/14 nor can they realistically be opposed. Liverpool (2/5) travel to Luton (6/1) for Saturday’s live game (17.30 BBC1) and should record an easy win. After their good start to the season, Luton have nosedived, losing nine of their last 13 games. Liverpool’s excellent form has been well-documented and an early goal could see the Reds win at a canter. In games where they’ve led at half time, Liverpool have won every time (7 out of 7) and they’re 10/11 to do it again.

Live Game Pick: Half-time/Full-time – Liverpool/Liverpool @ 10/11

On Sunday, Tottenham travel to Leicester (18.30 BBC1) and the 4/7 about Spurs is giving money away. The Foxes are struggling in the Championship and have suffered home defeats to the likes of Luton, Cardiff and Burnley already this season. Leicester can be backed at 9/2 to win this game, but Craig Levein will be more concerned with maintaining Leicester’s Championship status than putting together a cup run in a competition which ultimately they can’t win. Once the game goes live, don’t forget to check out 14 exciting live ‘In-Play’ markets.

Live Game Pick: Double: Liverpool (2/5) & Tottenham (4/7)

FA Cup 3rd round weekend is notoriously tough. It is one of the most difficult weekends to make money because there are more short-priced teams than normal, and there’s always at least one team that hangs on for an unlikely draw. Seven Premiership teams are 1/5 or shorter, and backing all seven equates to about 8/11, so we’re going to have to look elsewhere for value.

Everton (4/5) look a decent price to turn Millwall over. The Lions have the worst home record in the Championship and Everton’s record suggests they’re better away from home. Millwall may have won their last 2, but they were against lowly Derby and Brighton and prior to that, they’d won only one of their previous 17. This game comes at a time when Everton are starting to turn the corner, with influential midfielder Tim Cahill hitting form, scoring 3 in his last 2 games.

Another standout bet is League One highfliers Brentford to beat League Two’s bottom club Stockport at 10/11. Stockport have won only twice all season, and recent results include 6-0 defeats to Macclesfield and Carlisle. Brentford have suffered only one defeat in their last nine, and have been hovering near the top of League One all season. Stockport managed the shock of round 1 by beating Swansea, but it’s very unlikely they could manage a repeat against Martin Allen’s side.

Of course, there’s always a chance one of the minnows could cling on for a draw and you’d do your cash. If you’re feeling cautious there’s always our ‘draw no bet’ coupon, or even the Asian Handicap, which is becoming more popular every week.

Our FA Cup Accumulator pays £188.94 for £25, but you can always add on the likes of Chelsea (1/20), Man Utd (1/14) and Arsenal (1/10) to boost the return, but be wary of Exeter’s incredible achievement at Old Trafford last year. Surely that can’t happen again. Can it?

FA Cup Accumulator: Liverpool, Tottenham, Everton and Brentford pays £188.94 (£25 Stake)