[farnerud]

You may think it's nonsense but if I were Moyes I would play derby with reserves. Because Everton is in a critical situation and Liverpool is not their opponent for this season. Weekend's Sunderland clash is more important for them, classic 6 pointer. Of course he won't do it. But I think he knows if he starts with an attacking formation it will be an easy win for Reds. So he will repeat what he did previosly and will tell his players to sit back. I can't see them scoring. I just remembered the last match stats. Newcastle 0 shots on goal against Liverpool and Everton 0 shots pn goal against Aston Villa.

0-0 score will be the biggest achievement for Toffees. This is more logical because Liverpool has not an attacking power like Manchester Utd. or Arsenal. At the other side I'm almost sure that Benitez are making all his plans for a 0-1 win.

My best for this match is "Liverpool to keep a clean sheet" 1.75 @ gamebookers.

Also,

exact score 0-1 @ 7.00
number of goals : 1 @ 4.25
under @ 1.65

[mrmuzeman]

I wouldnt put anyone off some kind of Liverpool win to nil type scenario as it certainly offers better value than the Liverpool straight single. However we did have shots on target against Villa I dont know where you got those stats from. I dont have any stats to hand but I remember from watching the game a couple of times where there were efforts on target. Davies had a good shot saved, Beattie should have scored but hit the keeper from about 6 yards out etc

[natrass]

Originally Posted by farnerud

I just remembered the last match stats. Newcastle 0 shots on goal against Liverpool and Everton 0 shots pn goal against Aston Villa.

Are you sure farnerud?... I can remember Beattie (I think) almost scoring from 4 yards and it bounced off sorensens leg .. looked a certain goal. Everton were poor but it wasnt such a one way street Im sure. I might be wrong though Farnerud .. I wasnt really watching. (Newcastle were very poor though I agree ... )

[natrass]

Snap Mr M both posted 23.05pm .. you say 6 yards i said 4!!

[fasteddy]

Obviously a big factor this period is the amount of games and the injuries that will affect the teams.Smaller squads will suffer a bit, plus that lack of depth even without injuries will weaken the players involved. Team news is therefore massively important.

Fulham vs Aston Villa : here we have a home side that is on a great run of 'home' form ( 4-0-1 10:6) and also showing tremendous spirit when faced with absences to key players: Malbranque (started in 16), Diop (15).
Fulham's key is their 1st half performances: rated 3rd in the league. Compare to their 2nd half - 18th- and you see where they have to improve, plus where they are vulnerable.

Villa are rated 19th in 1st half and 13th in 2nd half...plus when they concede first they are 10: 1-2-7.
Hitting 4 against an Everton side that has been woeful all season is no measure of a resurgence in the Villa squad. They are very inconsistent in their play, and O'Leary has never been my idea of an EPL manager, which goes a long way to explaining the lack of cohesion in the side. Angel, Baros as a pairing just doesn't seem to work. Baros is quite predictable in his play, while Angel is so out of synch it's painful to watch sometimes.

Who have Villa actually beaten this season?:
Everton 4-0 (A): a side in a major slump: 16th
Charlton 1-0 (H): side in freefall since their great start, and were on a 3 game losing run when they met with Villa
Sunderland 3-1 (A): 20th in the league...nuff said about them.
Birmingham 1-0 (A): 19th ....can't score..can't defend!
Blackburn 1-0 (H): a decent enough result..but that's the least they should be doing..to be honest.

Fulham should come out strong as they always do ( 13 from 20 goals all in this period) , and I expect them to score 1st..which should ensure a more open approach from Villa. They can score as well, no doubt , but in opening up more they will suffer from the pace injected from the likes of Boa Morte, Radzinski , McBride. All of these players trouble backlines like Villa's.
Villa can take heart if they fall behind from the fact that the hosts are 5-2-3 when scoring first...so hope there. Also Fulham have lost ALL matches where they fell behind first: 0-0-6.

For Fulham to make sure of the 3pts they will need a 2 goal cushion going into the last 15-20 mins as that's where they are most likely to concede. I believe they can do it, and see this match as a possible Ht/Ft bet as well. They have won this bet in their last 4 home games, of which the last 3 have all ended with a 2-1 scoreline.

Fulham : 2-1 @ 10.31 pinnacle
Fulham : win @ 2.20 VC

Blackburn vs Sunderland: I think this could be a rout for the Rovers as they have a look about them of late that says they are getting back to their best form. Kuqi has found his rhythm and with Bellamy on the way back as well, Hugehs has a very strong and varied strikeforce to choose from. I like Rovers frontline as they provide options as to the way they attack. Very difficult for opponents to adapt to the changes that can be wrought by perming these 3 with Pedersen also.
They are a strong mid-table squad with pretensions to be Top 6, and I think it's possible but they need more depth in their squad as injuries to Bellamy/Dickov at the same time left them a bit toothless.

Sunderland are having the nightmare that everyone predicted in the EPL. One shining light is that they do make the effort in each match...not alsways their best , but they do try. they have scored in 11 from 18 matches , so that's not too bad, considering.
I can see them netting here , but losing the game. Blackburn aren't the tightest at home , so no reason to believe it can't be done by Sunderland.

An Overs bet is my view on this one. Maybe 2-1, 0r 3-1...or 3-0..whatever..I don't mind, but I think Sunderland will score.

Over @ 2.13 10Bet

[Swooperman]

Originally Posted by Swooperman

but the difference is that up till now (Fulham tomorrow & Albion monday ) we havent rolled over in any 6 pointers & are undefeated against any side in the bottom 11 in the table except Boro.
Before you all laugh there was a lot of you on Newcastle & Bolton to beat Villa in the last 2 away games & I advised against it, 2 draws was the result.

Lay Fulham

Not wanting to so obviously go against you Fast Eddy but its only fair to put the case for the defence....& its not a 'homer' as I dont do them

Villas recent record is 2-2-2 compared to Fulhams 2-1-3.
Villa lost lost 1 in 7 v Fulham
Villa lost 1 in 4 at Fulham
Villa lost 1 in last 7 overall
Villa lost 1 in last 5 away

Anyway, may the best pick win

[farnerud]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

I wouldnt put anyone off some kind of Liverpool win to nil type scenario as it certainly offers better value than the Liverpool straight single. However we did have shots on target against Villa I dont know where you got those stats from. I dont have any stats to hand but I remember from watching the game a couple of times where there were efforts on target. Davies had a good shot saved, Beattie should have scored but hit the keeper from about 6 yards out etc

Ok I remembered them, sorry it was my fault.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Bah...was hoping to push around evens for Newcastle home win but its not looking like happening

Two big happenings for this game. On the Charlton front you have Danny Murphy missing. While he has been in and out recently he is still by far and away their best player who makes things tick.

Superb midfielder who will score just as many as he creates and this is a huge hole going to be missing in the Charlton midfield.

From the Newcastle side they have Scott Parker returning from suspension and he has been one of their top 2 players this season.

Midfield battler and this was missed badly against Liverpool although i did feel if he was playing the result would've been the same outcome.

But thats two big in and outs for the game tonight and it should have a big impact on the game.

Charlton are a very poor side at the minute. Arsenal made them look reasonable on monday but that was mainly due to the fact that Arsenal were poor themselves.

Newcastle have started getting results although the Liverpool game was a setback for them.

Taylor will be the only absentee but they have done without him in recent weeks anyways.

Shearer and Owen should cause mayhem and im expecting a big game from Luque as he is nearing full fitness.

1.72 is the best price around mind. Not sure if i could take that

[fasteddy]

Swooperman...totally see your point. Villa are a value bet based on the stats you have shown. I just don't see them playing two games the same.
But, yes..may the best pick win!

I decided not to bet until 2006 now...so if you have cash on this one...I'll be shouting you home

[fasteddy]

Birmingham vs Manyoo

A repeat of the Carling Cup match in which Manyoo won 3-1 with a 'reserve' look side . Should be more of the same here.

I'm sure Fergie is delighted to be facing Birmingham again at this point , as he can field the same side as last time and rest his key players if he wants.
Saha should play, with maybe Rossi getting another chance, rather have Rooney on from the start.
Ronaldo must be a definite as well, Howard between the sticks cursing his good luck!

Birmingham are simply too bad for words when you think of the assembled talent amongst their ranks: Pennant, Pandiani, Heskey, Forrsell, Dunn and Butt...these guys have a huge amount of expereince but seem unable to put it together this season in any shape or form.
Of course Bruce has to be held responsible with his own brand of management and tactical savvy....mix and match, sure , but not after just 15 mins!

They simply don't know how to score anymore...it's frightening to see how strikers just lose it, but terrifying when ALL of them do it at the same time!
Wins against Fulham and Sunderland are the only bright spots in the last 10 games, a period which also saw a run of 5 games goalless.

Bruce really has nothing to lose here ( apart from his job...but that'll go anyway) so he might as well play an attacking side and keep it that way for the 90mins....try to pressure Manyoo from the off and get 'physical' with them.

If he goes out to 'not lose' the game, I think this mentality will backfire on him.
With Pandiani on the way to Spain, he needs a quality replacement...but WHO? Who will want to head to a side that is headed for the Championship?

Fergie smacks Bruce down again

WBA vs Spurs

Spurs AWAY: 3-4-1..ranked 5th. WBA HOME: 4-1-4..ranked 13th

It appears to me to be a terrific price on Spurs to take all 3 points and with the strikers in form - ALL of them- I am even more inclined to give this a maximum stake.

WBA have scored only 14 this season, but they have done so with ELEVEN different players!. That's a great stat when you have scored 30 and your strikers account for the rest, but its reflective of the lack of faith Robson has in finding a fruitful partnership with the SEVEN forwards he has on his books.
What chance have they got when the one with the most starts has been Kamara with only 10.

Spurs have scored heavily in the last 5 games : 13, but have also conceded heavily as well:7.
The fact that they can score and are obviously very confident about this maybe makes them a little bit careless in their 'defensive' approach.

The Baggies hace FAILED to score in 6 of their last 9 matches...so I know which team i'm going to be abcking here.

If Gera does make it onto the field for tonight's match then , of course, they have an added strength , but overall I can't see them being able to match Spurs for sheer depth in options of attack , and also midfield dominance.

Big odds...take them.

[farnerud]

I don't trust Spurs tonight after I saw their performance against Birmingham. West Bromwich is a poor side but sometimes they show class at home matches like City and Arsenal. Also Gera will be a big boost for gome side.

[fasteddy]

How can you 'not trust ' a side that has just gone 7-4-1?!!

[fasteddy]

West Ham vs Wigan


Wigan have both Roberts and Camara in great form. The fact that the defence can be a bit porous lately is a worry, especially after taking a good lead. Seems as though they lose concentration when out in front...something I am sure Paul Jewell will have been at pains to point out, and correct before this clash.

Wigan are 4-0-4 7:10 : 'away' games...ranked 8th
West Ham are 4-1-3 14:10 : 'home' games..ranked 12th

When Wigan came up against Arsenal after going 6-0-0 , it was the beginning of the toughest run for any club in the league programme: Arse, Spurs, Liverpool, Chelsea and Manyoo. Not surprisingly they went 5-0-0.
The fact that as soon as they were faced with a game with another club outside of that group and they were back on track: Charlton 3-0. Man City 4-3....shows you what a talented group they are.
They score goals and have an amazing sense of self belief, regardless of whether they lose or not. That's the key to their success: team spirit.

West Ham have been playing well this season...maybe better than even their fans thought possible.
Pardew has done very well with his squad and the recent form of Zamora paired with Harewood has brought its rewards.
But they haven't been able to get a decent winning run going, with only once winning games back to back.

Both these sides are very much 2nd half performers ranked 4th and 5th respectively...so we should be in for a roaring 2nd 45mins.

West Ham are a very attacking minded side , but with the loss of midfield playmaker Benayoun and right back Tomas Repka , they are minus a bit of their usual edge.
Hayden Mullins, Matthew Etherington and Paul Konchesky are doubts also , so Pardew is limited in his choice.

Wigan have no injury worries, so they can field a settled group and go about their business as usual. Considering the hectic fixture list it is important to be able to rest some players , but if you are being forced thru injuries then it's different...I'm sure Pardew would like to make the choice of who plays rather than have it made for him.

Wigan gettin +0.25 is a very generous gift...I accept with thanks!

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Originally Posted by fasteddy

How can you 'not trust ' a side that has just gone 7-4-1?!!

For the reasons i stated the other thread from last time Eddy.

They have a good record but they are making things very very hard for themselves most games and struggling to kill teams off which has come back to haunt them a few times already this season.

I don't think they are playing all that great at the minute to be honest, I'd rather be backing them than laying them though i have to say.

Eddy - is it confirmed about Man Utd resting their players? I have put my rags to riches bet on here. Should have waited for team news

[fasteddy]

I agree that they aren't killing games..BUT...good sides win when not at their best...so they say. All Spurs can do is win...and they are. Against another side...maybe think twice..but WBA don't show the stuff needed to be backed with confidence. MAX BET!!!!

I am second guessing on the Manyoo news, Kiko. However, Fergie did state b4 the festive run that he would be taking the opportunity to rest some where possible, and I would see this as one of those opportunities. Just a guess...mind!