Welsh Premier League Dec 17

[traeth]

Fixtures
Sat 17 Dec 2005 Aberystwyth Town v Airbus UK 14:30
Sat 17 Dec 2005 Caernarfon Town v Port Talbot Town 14:30
Sat 17 Dec 2005 Cardiff Grange Quins v Connah's Quay Nomads 14:30
Sat 17 Dec 2005 Haverfordwest County v Caersws FC 14:30
Sat 17 Dec 2005 Llanelli AFC v Total Network Solutions 14:00
Sat 17 Dec 2005 NEWI Cefn Druids v Cwmbran Town 14:30
Sat 17 Dec 2005 Newtown AFC v Bangor City 14:30
Sat 17 Dec 2005 Rhyl FC v Carmarthen Town 14:30
Sat 17 Dec 2005 Welshpool Town v Porthmadog FC 14:30

Unusually bet365 have not listed the prices yet , will post the prices if they decide to issue prices.
Perhaps their Welsh expert is on holidays as the prices have been up on Mondays or Tuesdays.

Here is the league table

Last updated: 13.12.2005 at 11:35
Pos Team Pld W D L F A Pts
1. Total Network Solutions 14 11 3 0 42 5 36
2. Port Talbot Town 14 7 6 1 24 10 27
3. Welshpool Town 14 7 3 4 34 27 24
4. Rhyl FC 15 6 4 5 27 19 22
5. Newtown AFC 15 7 1 7 26 25 22
6. Carmarthen Town 12 6 3 3 24 14 21
7. Haverfordwest County 14 5 6 3 19 17 21
8. Bangor City 14 6 1 7 27 25 19
9. Llanelli AFC 11 6 0 5 22 12 18
10. Porthmadog FC 12 4 6 2 24 19 18
11. Caersws FC 14 4 6 4 21 28 18
12. Aberystwyth Town 14 3 5 6 20 27 14
13. Cwmbran Town 13 4 2 7 17 30 14
14. Airbus UK 14 4 2 8 15 30 14
15. Cardiff Grange Quins 13 4 1 8 12 45 13
16. Caernarfon Town 12 2 5 5 18 18 11
17. Connah's Quay Nomads 14 3 2 9 12 22 11
18. NEWI Cefn Druids 13 1 6 6 15 26 9

[traeth]

Will post some stats [ recent league games- most recent ones first] and will post comments tomorrow , any questions please ask.
Even had that Malaysian Syndicate guy posting here last week , there arn't many that post in this thread

Aberystwyth Town v Airbus
Cwmbran - Aberystwyth 1-3
Aberystwyth –Connahs Q 1-2
Aberystwyth - Caersws 0-0
Bangor City - Aberystwyth 3-1
Aberystwyth - Port Talbot 0-3

Porthmadog - Airbus 3-1
Connahs Quay - Airbus 3-0
Airbus UK - Carmarthen 1-3
Caersws - Airbus UK 3-1
Airbus UK - Bangor City 2-1

Caernarfon Town v Port Talbot Town

TNS - Caernarfon 2-1
Caernarfon - Porthmadog 1-2
Caernarfon - Newtown 0-0
Haverfordwest - Caernarfon 2-2
Caernarfon - Rhyl 0-2

Port Talbot - Newtown 3-2
Haverfordwest - Port Talbot 1-3
Port Talbot - Rhyl 1-0
Port Talbot - Cardiff GQ 0-1
Port Talbot - Newi 1-0

Cardiff Grange Quins v Connah's Quay Nomads

Carmarthen - Cardiff GQ 8-0
Cardiff GQ - Caersws 0-5
Bangor City - Cardiff GQ 5-1
Port Talbot - Cardiff GQ 0-1
TNS - Cardiff GQ 7-0

Connahs Quay - Newi CD 1-0
Aberystwyth - Connahs Quay 1-2
Connahs Quay - Airbus UK 3-0
Cwmbran - Connahs Quay 2-1
Porthmadog - Connahs Quay 2-2

Haverfordwest County v Caersws

Bangor City - Haverfordwest 0-1
Haverfordwest - Port Talbot 1-3
Haverfordwest - Welshpool 2-1
Llanelli - Haverfordwest 0-1
Haverfordwest - Caernarfon 2-2

Caersws - Rhyl 1-1
Cardiff - Caersws 0-5
Aberystwyth - Caersws 0-0
Caersws - Airbus UK 3-1
Cwmbran - Caersws 2-2

Llanelli AFC v Total Network Solutions

Welshpool - Llanelli 3-2
Newtown - Llanelli 0-3
Llanelli - Haverfordwest 0-1
Rhyl - Llanelli 0-1
Newi CD - Llanelli 2-5

TNS - Caernarfon 2-1
Newtown - TNS 0-3
Rhyl - TNS 0-0
TNS - Cardiff GQ 7-0
Newi CD - TNS 0-6

Newi Cefn Druids v Cwmbran

Connahs Quay - Newi 1-0
Newi - Bangor City 2-2
Port Talbot - Newi 1-0
Newi - TNS 0-6
Welshpool - Newi 3-2

Cwmbran - Aberystwyth 1-3
Porthmadog - Cwmbran 5-1
Cwmbran - Connahs Quay 2-1
Carmarthen - Cwmbran 1-1
Cwmbran - Caersws 2-2


Newtown AFC v Bangor City

Port Talbot - Newtown 3-2
Newtown - TNS 0-3
Welshpool - Newtown 1-2
Newtown - Llanelli 0-3
Caernarfon - Newtown 0-0

Bangor City - Haverfordwest 0-1
Rhyl - Bangor City 4-1
Bangor City - Cardiff GQ 5-1
Newi CD - Bangor City 2-2
Bangor City - Aberystwyth 3-1

Rhyl FC v Carmarthen

Caersws - Rhyl 1-1
Rhyl - Bangor City 4-1
Port Talbot - Rhyl 1-0
Rhyl - TNS 0-0
Welshpool - Rhyl 3-1

Carmarthen - Cardiff GQ 8-0
Airbus UK - Carmarthen 1-3
Carmarthen - Cwmbran 1-1
Connahs Quay - Carmarthen 0-1
Carmarthen - Caersws 1-3

Welshpool Town v Porthmadog

Welshpool - Llanelli 3-2
Welshpool - Newtown 1-2
Haverfordwest - Welshpool 2-1
Welshpool - Rhyl 3-1
Cardiff GQ - Welshpool 0-5

Porthmadog - Airbus UK 3-1
Porthmadog - Cwmbran 5-1
Caernarfon - Porthmadog 1-2
Porthmadog - Connahs Quay 2-2
Newtown - Porthmadog 3-1

[Rashin]

I got a feeling Cardiff's been offered Abalones from the Chinese restaurant to lose this one.

Ok serious question, has the situation at Cardiff improved? or same as usual?

[traeth]

Here are the odds from bet365.
Hi Rashin , the reply to your question can be seen [ or not to be seen ] in bet365 list ,which does not contain the Grange v Connah's Quay match.
The situation has been getting worse following the departure of a large number of players , plus two injured players from last week's match.
More details here

17 Dec-14:00 Llanelli v T.N.S. 4.00 3.20 1.80
17 Dec-14:30 Aberystwyth v Airbus UK 1.83 3.25 3.60
17 Dec-14:30 Caernarfon v Port Talbot 3.20 3.20 2.00
17 Dec-14:30 Haverfordwest v Caersws 2.10 3.20 3.00
17 Dec-14:30 Newi Cefn Druids v Cwmbran 2.80 3.20 2.20
17 Dec-14:30 Newtown v Bangor City 1.83 3.20 3.75
17 Dec-14:30 Rhyl v Carmarthen Town 1.66 3.40 4.33
17 Dec-14:30 Welshpool Town v Porthmadog 1.72 3.30 4.20

p.s. Rashin if you find someone offering odds on this match let me know

[Rashin]

Maybe it's not out yet, checked and saw that it's on Sunday 18th.

[traeth]

Llanelli [9]v T.N.S.[1]
An eagerly awaited clash in this league .Llanelli with the imported Spaniard who have gone full time this year against the only other fulltimers "unbeaten " TNS. Llanelli have slipped down the table recently , mainly due to postponed games due to the weather, plus a defeat last week away to surprise team third placed Welshpool.
These results against title contenders Rhyl could be used as a cross reference
2005-11-18 Rhyl - TNS 0-0
2005-11-12 Welshpool - Rhyl 3-1
2005-10-29 Rhyl - Llanelli 0-1
Could this weekend see TNS first defeat ?
TNS have been knocking in goals for fun but their last two games were not convincing against opponent that are near the botttom of the table.
Dec 7th 2005 CHALLENGE CUP / Semi-final, 1st Leg Airbus 1 - 2 T N S
Dec 10th 2005 WELSH PREMIER T N S 2-1 Caernarfon Town
The report from the TNS v Caernarfon match HERE
The weather was an atrocious in the Airbus cup match though.

It is very difficult to oppose TNS , who have a large squad with class strikers and a very good defence.
Llanelli have imported the classy Spaniards , but have been inconsistant.
[Remember "Class" here is a relative term]

This is not a match I will be risking any of my money , but I am sure quite a few of our overseas friends have wagered money on both these sides.If I find out some more info I will post here.
If you have any questions please ask.

[traeth]

Originally Posted by Rashin

Maybe it's not out yet, checked and saw that it's on Sunday 18th.

The fixture list I posted first has the game on Saturday from Premier League of Wales site.
this is another bit of bad news for Grange from Premier League of Wales site. site HERE

GOALKEEPER PRIORITY FOR QUINS

Quins' player/coach Terry Evans may be headed for Newport.
AN experienced goalkeeper is the priority for Cardiff Grange Quins manager Mal Camilleri.
Academy stopper Chris Golton was thrust into the firing line after Neil Thomas left the club to return to Port Talbot Town.
"Chris is a good keeper with loads of promise, but he's not ready for this situation," said Camilleri, having seen the 17-year old concede 25 goals in four games.
Quins are also on the verge of losing player/coach Terry Evans to Newport County, while defender Robert King has signed for Aberystwyth Town.
But chairman David Pinches reiterated that the club will see out the season and that it is imperative that Cardiff has a team in the Welsh Premier.
"We are the ones doing it. The last side were Inter Cardiff, who finished six seasons ago," he said."
"By hook or by crook, we will make sure we survive the season, make no mistake about that.
"But if any big sponsor is prepared to come in and help out, then I'm ready to step aside and assist that person.
"What I can categorically say, though, is that we will finish our fixtures - contrary to some of the things that have been reported."
Meanwhile, League secretary John Deakin says "We are obviously keeping a close eye on the situation and hopefully things will get better and the problems will be sorted out."
14 December 2005

[dj_mercury]

Hi traeth, good work, keep it up. Just a question for you: which matches do you fancy to go over 2.5 goals this weekend? What about an over 2.5 goals double involving the Welshpool match and the Newtown match? You can get a price of 2.4 for it at Interwetten. Any important formations news from these sides?

[traeth]

Originally Posted by dj_mercury

Hi traeth, good work, keep it up. Just a question for you: which matches do you fancy to go over 2.5 goals this weekend? What about an over 2.5 goals double involving the Welshpool match and the Newtown match? You can get a price of 2.4 for it at Interwetten. Any important formations news from these sides?

Hi dj , going out with the boys tonight so this a rush post , Welshpool have superceded my expectations of them this year and are still performing well , this weekend they are playing my home team Porthmadog. Porthmadog are on a good run at the moment and have had three wins on the trot .They do conceed goals though . An over for this match sounds good.
Newtown are a good side but have had inconsistant results , Bangor are in financial trouble and have unrest in the club with a few players looking for other clubs.Bangor played very defensive last week ,which saw them losing 1-0.Their previous game was against a heavy defeat against Rhyl but beat the troubled Grange 5-1 the previous week. Not so sure on this one .will make futher research and will come back to you.

cheers

[traeth]

My downfall in my betting on this league have been the following factors:
i) lost money on TNS early in the season and avoided their next few games
ii) overestimated Rhyl , so lost money on them
iii) overestimated Caernarfon ability to win at home on their awkward pitch
iv) underestimated my home side Porthmadog in their recent good run
v) do not really know the teams from the South of Wales

I hope these shortcoming do not cloud my recommendations for this weekend matches

Llanelli [9]v T N S [1]
This match has been covered in a previous post but must post this from the Welsh Premier League site

The Reds host leaders TNS at Stebonheath Park on Saturday before a festive double-header against second placed Port Talbot Town.
"These are three vital matches for us," said Nicholas.
"We were disappointed with last week's 3-2 defeat at Welshpool Town. To be 2-0 up, miss a penalty and lose was a big blow.

no bet for me

Aberystwyth [12] v Airbus [14]

Aber have the best manager in the league and he should be getting them to win consistantly .Airbus played porly in the last few weeks , their performance against my home side Porthmadog was not very good .
A match preview from the Flintshire Chronicle - bias towards Airbus HERE

Aberystwyth @1.83 home win 6/10

Caernarfon [16]v Port Talbot[3]
Many of the regular readers of this thread will relise that I have a soft spot for Caernarfon at home , this season they have let me down . Port Talbot have surprised many people this season , they started the season with low scoring draws before the found thier scoring touch and flew up the table to second place.Last week Caernarfon lost 2-1 to TNS , good result considering relative positions of the teams. P.T. came back from 0-2 down to win 3-2 against 5th placed Newtown. My brain says Port Talbot who are evens with bet365, my heart says Caernarfon.

small stake Caernarfon home win @3.20 1/10

Cefn Druids [18]v Cwmbran[13]
Cefn form has been very poor and are now bottom of the table and would be opposed usually , but because of Cwmbran's financial problems they have lost many player and have had to depend on their under 21 squad to strengthen their team [ they have a good U21 side]
more of Cwmbran's details HERE from Welsh Premier League site

NO BET

[traeth]

Haverfordwest [7]v Caersws [11]
Haverfordwest have had excellent results against the better sides in this league but not so good against the average sides.Caersws not a consistant side but had a good result 1-1 against Rhyl last week.

Haverfordwest @2.10 home win 4/10

Newtown [5]v Bangor City [8]
Newtown threw away a 2-0 to lose 3-2 last weekend against 2nd placed Port Talbot .Bangor are still without a manager and rumour have it there is unrest among the players.Newtown's have had poor results in the last few games , but I am sure they can return to their early season form .This looks like a home win for me ,especially considering Bangor's problems.

Newtown @1.83 home win 8/10

Rhyl [4]v Carmarthen [6]
Rhyl have been dropping points away from home , they have had some reasonable results against teams in the top half of the table.Last season Rhyl was the only side pushing TNS ,they have dropped too many point to do that this season.I watched their performance against TNS live on the tele and Rhyl looked good , saw them live against my home side Porthmadog and still think they are TNS's nearest rival. Caermarthen had a moral boosting 8-0 win against "troubled" Grange last week .They have played teams at the bottom end of the table recently to move up the league. I think Rhyl superior class will tell in this match

Rhyl @1.66 home win 5/10 - poor odds though

Welshpool Town [3]v Porthmadog[10]
Welshpool another of the surprise teams this year,who are now in third place in the league ,were losing 0-2 to Llanelli but came back to win 3-2 which shows their fighting spirit.
Portmadog my home side are 6 points behind Welshpool but have 2 games in hand.Port have only lost 2 games this season ,only unbeaten TNS have lost less.Port have taken the lead in a few games only for the opposition to draw level .Recently they have cured this problem against the weaker teams in the league, can they keep up the good run against Welshpool .
These are the recent H2H
2004-12-16 Welshpool 1-1 Porthmadog
2004-08-14 Porthmadog 1-1 Welshpool
2004-01-16 Welshpool 0-1 Porthmadog
2003-09-06 Porthmadog 3-0 Welshpool
A draw could be dangerous but I am tempted by the price offered by bet365 so I am going for my side.

Porthmadog @4.20 away win 2/10

[XFX]

I think the Llanelli TNS match has the best potential to go over.
Both sides looks pretty strong in offence and lacking in defence

[traeth]

Originally Posted by XFX

I think the Llanelli TNS match has the best potential to go over.
Both sides looks pretty strong in offence and lacking in defence

Hi XFX nice to see you .
The overs in this match is dependant upon what tactics Llanelli employ for the match , Rhyl held TNS to a draw by playing very defensive and perhaps Llanelli may employ the same game plan.
I agree that both sides can score and have been involved in high scoring games , but I do not agree about them "lacking in defence"
TNS conceeded their first goal for quite a few matches last week.

this from the Premier League of Wales site

But after the TNS had taken a 2-0 interval lead with a Martin Naylor goal, the visitors battled back and became the first side to breach Gerard Doherty's goal in 791 minutes of league action when Steve Watkin headed in Owen's cross.

GOOD LUCK XFX , if you have any more questions /comments keep them coming

[traeth]

A North Wales version of the latest news
TNS manager McKenna has given his player shorter training sessions to rekindle their sharpness after "two jaded" performances.
Airbus have lost one of their strikers ,K Leech, to local rivals Cefn
Bangor have two players doubtful because of the "flu bug" - bet365 has Newtown v Bangor game postponed , nothing on the league site
Aberystwyth have two players suspended but have signed a defender from Grange.
Caernarfon sticking to same team as manager is confident in his team's ability and "we have lacked a bit of luck"
Rhyl still have skipper Edwards out
Porthmadoghave two player out due to injuries , influencial striker Owen and midfielder Thomas , with 4 others having "fitness" checks today.Port price is now 5.0 from 4.20.

Here is a summary of my recommendations I posted yesterday

Aberystwyth @1.83 home win 6/10
Caernarfon home win @3.20 1/10
Haverfordwest @2.10 home win 4/10
Newtown @1.83 home win 8/10
Rhyl @1.66 home win 5/10 - poor odds though
Porthmadog @4.20 away win 2/10 -now 5.0 , not so confident now

[traeth]

Originally Posted by traeth

Bangor have two players doubtful because of the "flu bug" - bet365 has Newtown v Bangor game postponed , nothing on the league site

Sorry if this info caused any problems ,could not find any news of this and now odds are back on bet365 with prices unchanged from Thursday, I am slightly confused