FA Trophy 17th December

[A.M.P]

17 Dec-15:00 Accrington Stanley v Altrincham 1.44 3.60 6.50
17 Dec-15:00 AFC Wimbledon v St Albans City 2.50 3.20 2.40
17 Dec-15:00 Aldershot v Grays Ath 2.50 3.10 2.50
17 Dec-15:00 Alfreton Town v Histon 2.60 3.40 2.25
17 Dec-15:00 Bognor Regis v Hereford 3.00 3.20 2.10
17 Dec-15:00 Boreham Wood v Leighton Town 1.50 3.60 5.50
17 Dec-15:00 Burton Albion v Worksop 1.57 3.50 5.00
17 Dec-15:00 Canvey Island v Kingstonian 1.33 4.00 8.00
17 Dec-15:00 Dag & Red v Thurrock 1.72 3.40 4.00
17 Dec-15:00 Dorchester Town v Cambridge Utd 2.60 3.40 2.25
17 Dec-15:00 East Thurrock Utd v Gravesend 3.50 3.40 1.83
17 Dec-15:00 Farnborough v Cambridge City 2.10 3.20 3.00
17 Dec-15:00 Halesowen v Tamworth 4.00 3.40 1.72
17 Dec-15:00 Halifax v Southport 1.44 3.60 6.50
17 Dec-15:00 Kettering Town v Farsley Celtic 1.66 3.40 4.33
17 Dec-15:00 Kidderminster v Scarborough 2.10 3.20 3.00
17 Dec-15:00 Salisbury City v Harlow Town 1.22 5.00 9.00
17 Dec-15:00 Stafford Rangers v Lancaster City 1.61 3.25 5.00
17 Dec-15:00 Stalybridge Celtic v Droylsden 2.20 3.25 2.75
17 Dec-15:00 Stevenage v Crawley Town 1.57 3.50 5.00
17 Dec-15:00 Uxbridge v Woking 6.50 3.60 1.44
17 Dec-15:00 Vauxhall Motors v Morecambe 5.50 3.40 1.53
17 Dec-15:00 Warrington Town v Blyth Spartans 4.00 3.60 1.66
17 Dec-15:00 Weston Super Mare v Barking 1.57 3.50 5.00
17 Dec-15:00 Weymouth v Forest Green 1.50 3.60 5.50
17 Dec-15:00 Worcester City v Hayes 2.20 3.25 2.75
17 Dec-15:00 Yeading v Carshalton Ath 1.61 3.25 5.00
17 Dec-15:00 York v Northwich 2.10 3.20 3.00
18 Dec-14:00 Barrow v Clitheroe 1.40 3.75 7.00
18 Dec-14:00 Exeter v Bishops Stortford 1.50 3.60 5.50
18 Dec-15:00 Welling v Redbridge 1.14 6.00 12.00

[A.M.P]

Skybets are out and we're stil waiting on Stan James.

Had a couple of punts to tell you about later as IMO Santa could be filling a few stockings early this year.

Morecambe (1.8) look a great price to beat Vauxhall Motors away. Morecambe can blow hot abd cold but they should have too much to beat a tema strugglinh in the league below and come off of a great result against Grays.

Farnboro (2.1 bet 365) played their opposition away last Saturday inthe league and stuffed them 2-0. 2.1 is a great price IMO.

I'll be getting my doubles on the go again as prime candiates for that are Exeter, Woking, Burton and Barrow.

Anybody any thoughts on Hereford?

Also been gazumped by bet365 as they go 4/1 on Carlshalton to repeat last Saturday's victory at Yeading. Where they get that price from I don't know as Yeading have been described as awful of late and I think they're taking a chance there.

Off to bed now so more later.

The early bird catches the worm

AMP

[mrmuzeman]

Ill be damned if I can find the FA Trophy match coupon on Skybet. I fcuking hate their site

Maybe theyre touching it up or amending it but I cant find it! Any provide a direct link to the odds?

[Frodo]

At last we come to the competition and round that kick started my gambling habit. Not got much chance to look through thoroughly tonight but here's a few initial thoughts. Have to say I was quite disappointed with the draw.

17 Dec-15:00 Accrington Stanley v Altrincham 1.44 3.60 6.50 - These two sides don't like each other so with pride at stake I favour the better team which is clearly Accrington. Alty become playable for me closer to 8/1.

17 Dec-15:00 AFC Wimbledon v St Albans City 2.50 3.20 2.40 - St.Albans away to poorer opposition has worked well for me so far this season. Difficult to judge if AFC Dons will go for it, and whether an intimidating home atmosphere may play a part.

17 Dec-15:00 Burton Albion v Worksop 1.57 3.50 5.00 - Burton will they care given their FA Cup run? They do have a good record in this competition mind.

17 Dec-15:00 Canvey Island v Kingstonian 1.33 4.00 8.00 - If Kingstonian aren't all a bunch of fat blokes who can't kick a ball I'd say lay Canvey.

17 Dec-15:00 Dag & Red v Thurrock 1.72 3.40 4.00 - It's got to be Thurrock, they're on a decent run in the conf south. Daggers are in relative turmoil at the moment though they've just signed for Thurrock goal getter Cliff Akurang.

17 Dec-15:00 Dorchester Town v Cambridge Utd 2.60 3.40 2.25 - Was hoping for longer on Dorchester

17 Dec-15:00 Halesowen v Tamworth 4.00 3.40 1.72 - Tamworth, (see Burton)

17 Dec-15:00 Halifax v Southport 1.44 3.60 6.50 - Halifax had a great home record this time last season and got done by Northwich (pre Steve Burr). Southport are equally as bad as Northwich were last season so it might be worth a look.

17 Dec-15:00 Kidderminster v Scarborough 2.10 3.20 3.00 - Scarborough for me, relegated league teams from experience rarely give a toss about the trophy. Also add on to that the fact that Scarborough are improving and Kidderminster are in freefall.

17 Dec-15:00 Weymouth v Forest Green 1.50 3.60 5.50 Weymouth - 8/11 with Sky bet, hell yeah!

17 Dec-15:00 York v Northwich 2.10 3.20 3.00 - I like Northwich to beat a totally out of sorts York. The Vics have plenty to prove to Conference sides and have already won comfortably at fortress Morecambe this season.


One other thing to perhaps check out is the format of the FA Trophy as high flying conference teams will not want the inconvienience of fixture congestion later in the season.

[mrmuzeman]

Heres what im interested in this round...


Boreham Wood v Leighton @ 6/1

Daggers v Thurrock @ 3/1

Halifax v Southport @ 8/15

Kettering v Farsley @ 4/1

Weymouth v Forest Green @ 4/5

Yeading v Carshalton @ 4/1


Some nice 'long shots' there me thinks and a couple o nice odds on shots. Im playing them in a 6 fold accum, nah not really

Ill be getting into these properly as well as the non league stuff tomorrow

[A.M.P]

Stafford Rangers looked nailed on to beat managerless Lancaster City at a good price of 8/13.

Stafford are Conf North Leaders and 6/1/2 at home. Mid-Table Lancaster aren't bad away but they've mainly played mid / lower table opposition.

Last week Stafford ended Harrogate Town's unbeaten home record by winning 2-0. In the week there was a Lancaster Cup game involving Lancaster and local rivals Morecambe. Morecambe fielded a below strength side but Lancaster's (from what I can make out) took the game more seriously. 8 or 9 of the players who played in the last league game played for the full 120 minutes. Bizarely not one of the three subs were used - perhaps pointing to their squad being stretched?

The 8/13 at Bet365 looks to me good value as I'd price this up at 4/7 like the other books have. I'll probably look to double this with something. If this was the league and not a cup competition I's be having a large single.

AMP

[mrmuzeman]

AMP - I was looking for something to double Halifax with so that could be it. Maybe Halifax you could do

[A.M.P]

Right boys, I'm back with what I think is an absolute stonker of a bet!!!

Don't normally go for these types of bets but:

Barrow / Barrow (6/5 Stan James)

Barrow play in the Conference North which is two levels above their visitors from the Unibond division 1. Clitheroe were described as one of the better teams in the league a few months back but they've since had a slump in form winning one game out of the last 6 in the league. They also got turned over 4-3 at home midweek in the league cup. Their away form is pretty poor also.

The pertinent thing about this particular bet is they haven't scored before half time in the last 5 league games (they've scored just once in the last 8 before HT!). They did take what was described as "an uncustomary" lead in the cup game but went in 3-2 down...

Injuries. Did I mention them? Here's a post from their forum for my fellow members to enjoy:

Absolute crap tonight im afraid. We are looking a very ordinary side at the moment and i fear a hiding at Barrow on sunday unless we get some of our injured players back !
Conceded 4 goals at home ,and our lack of pace at the back was there for all to see.Tommy must make some signings,weve too many ordinary players in the side at the moment. Sods law says the players missing or injured are usually the more influential ones and in our case this certainly is true.
Gary Jackson
Tony Evans
Simon Garner
Chris Wittingham
Adam Birchall
Surely all 5 of these would be 1st choice and thats the problem,we just havent got quality replacements.I just hope we dont keep sliding downwards and let what looked a good season go to pot. Cant fault lads for effort but im sorry we were just not good enough.Personally wish we still had Russ.clark now as he could cover all the backfour and add the pace that tonight we just never had.If Barrows new manager was there tonight he must have left with a grin on his face and thinking to his self we can open this defence up at will.
Would love to think we can prove him wrong,but unless some of the 5 listed above declare themselves fit on sunday,then i fear we are in deep sh-t !!!

Lovely. Barrow looked a decent team at the start of the season and then it all went tits up and the fans finally got their wish with Turnbull leaving and now the Lancaster boss has walked out to take charge.

They've had a few decent results of late, beating Kettering away 3-1. Infact, they've only lost the once at home in the league to a decent Hinckley.

I'll single the HT/FT, which reminds me....hmmm, mainly a second half team but Barrow have only not scored in 2 league games - both away. It's a bit of a "statty" comment I know (fcuk - I'll be doing corner analysis next and fly posting the net with it..) but they've scored in 8 games from 10 at home before half time. If that makes sense.

Anywho, 6/5 looks a cracker of a price to me and this is definitely another one for the doubles list. Given the fact that there's two leagues apart, injuries and a new manager I'd have to rate this game higher than the aforementioned Stafford prospect.

I'll be working my way through the coupon over the next couple of days.

Love it.

AMP

[A.M.P]

Cheers Muze - I'll look into Halifax but one thing that worries me is how seriously the "big boys" will take the competition and I'll be sticking to the Conf north / south for my larger bets with a few coming from the National (such as Morecambe and maybe Tamworth and Woking). Gotta fancy Farsley at that price haven't you?

[mrmuzeman]

Yeah Farsleys form is sweet at the mo so looks very attractive odds indeed.

Nice info on the Barrow there AMP, ill be having a look see around that myself and maybe taking it in a double or sumthing. Gona get into everything very late tonight, gota get on before tomorrow really just incase prices go.

[A.M.P]

Muze,

Decided to double Halifax / Stafford for around 4 points.

Also liked the look of Tamworth at 1.83 'ish to beat opposition from two steps below that haven't scored in 3 games and went down 3-0 last time out to Northwood in the league.

Tamworth are 2nd bottom and I think I right in saying they're now without the services of Aaron Brown (quality at that level and gone to the Championship i think) but this is the team that beat Bournemouth and Hartlepool away in the FA cup so the odds look pretty good to me for a mid-size single.

In the end i thought "fcuk it" and had 10 pts on Barrow and make that my bet of the weekend - all be it at short odds.

AMP

[mrmuzeman]

Im taking Weymouth with Halifax @ 2.76 this weekend. It saves me having to have a big bet on Weymouth that way!

[mrmuzeman]

Also taken Leighton 6/1, Farsley 4/1 and Carshalton 4/1, all for a point each as theyre odds are a bit of an insult frankly!

Leighton are in the same step as their opponents Boreham Wood. yeah Boreham Wood are top of their league but they just lost their first game in ages and Leighton are bang in form winning their last 4. Stupid odds 6/1 is, espsecially for a cup tie.

Farsley are another team bang in form fresh off spanking 2 teams and last game out Burscough. They travel to Kettering in the league above who ahve been right out of sorts since Gazzas came and left again. The quote is again much too big imo.

Carshalton as AMP said won this same fixture in the league last weekend. Yeading have been pants at home all season and lets not forget that Carshalton did Chippenham in the cup the game before Yeading so might be getting on a bit of much needed run for them.

Think Thurrock are gona pass me as Daggers won their first game in a while at the weekend but still pretty tempted by Northwich at 5/2. Just not sure how theyll be after getting that sweet win over Woking which sets em up for a tie with Sunderland in the FA cup. The way Sunderland are playing I might back Northwich there York havent scored in their last 5 games and Northwich always score.

[Frodo]

Mr Muze, I've been speaking to a York fan who seems to think that they will use it as an opportunity to play players who are coming back from an injury and need a game. With it coming a few days after their win against Woking the Northwich messageboard folk seem barely aware that their is a game tomorrow. However the 3-0 cup win at Morecambe a month or so ago makes me want to take Northwich and I think I will a hungover confident team should still represent value against a potentially makeshift York side. Last years league games ended 0-0 and 3-0 to Northwich.

[bromsgrovegreen]

droylesdon had 4 centre halfs missing in the midweek defeat at home to workington so stalybridge at 6-5 needs more research, also solihull to beat hednesford at 4-1, hednesford managerless and lost to bottom side vauxhall last saturday. solihull knocked out harrogate town last round,so 4-1 is value imo