Weekend non-league

[A.M.P]

Nationwide Conference

1 Oct-15:00 Accrington Stanley v Gravesend 1.80 3.25 4.00
1 Oct-15:00 Altrincham v Crawley Town 2.37 3.40 2.50
1 Oct-15:00 Forest Green v Morecambe 2.60 3.50 2.25
1 Oct-15:00 Grays Athletic v Halifax 1.72 3.50 4.00
1 Oct-15:00 Hereford v Canvey Island 1.61 3.40 5.00
1 Oct-15:00 Kidderminster v Tamworth 1.66 3.40 4.50
1 Oct-15:00 Southport v Cambridge Utd 2.37 3.40 2.50
1 Oct-15:00 Woking v Scarborough 2.00 3.25 3.25
1 Oct-15:00 York v Exeter 2.37 3.40 2.50
2 Oct-14:00 Burton Albion v Aldershot 2.40 3.20 2.60

Conference North

1 Oct-15:00 Barrow v Hinckley Utd 1.80 3.40 3.60
1 Oct-15:00 Droylsden v Alfreton Town 1.72 3.40 4.00
1 Oct-15:00 Hednesford v Stafford Rangers 2.50 3.20 2.40
1 Oct-15:00 Hucknall Town v Moor Green 1.57 3.50 5.00
1 Oct-15:00 Lancaster v Worcester City 1.90 3.25 3.40
1 Oct-15:00 Leigh RMI v Workington 1.66 3.40 4.33
1 Oct-15:00 Northwich v Kettering 1.66 3.40 4.33
1 Oct-15:00 Nuneaton v Hyde 1.50 3.60 5.50
1 Oct-15:00 Redditch v Gainsborough 2.25 3.40 2.60
1 Oct-15:00 Stalybridge v Harrogate Town 2.20 3.25 2.75
1 Oct-15:00 Vauxhall Motors v Worksop 2.50 3.10 2.50

Conference South

1 Oct-15:00 Basingstoke v Sutton Utd 2.50 3.20 2.40
1 Oct-15:00 Bognor Regis Town v Welling 2.37 3.25 2.50
1 Oct-15:00 Cambridge City v Bishop's Stortford 1.80 3.40 3.60
1 Oct-15:00 Carshalton Ath v Histon 4.00 3.40 1.72
1 Oct-15:00 Dorchester v Hayes 2.37 3.25 2.50
1 Oct-15:00 Eastbourne Borough v Newport County 2.20 3.25 2.75
1 Oct-15:00 Farnborough v Havant and W 2.25 3.40 2.60
1 Oct-15:00 Maidenhead Utd v Weymouth 4.33 3.40 1.66
1 Oct-15:00 St Albans v Lewes 2.25 3.40 2.60
1 Oct-15:00 Weston-S-Mare v Thurrock 2.25 3.40 2.60
1 Oct-15:00 Yeading v Eastleigh 2.10 3.20 3.00

Ryman

1 Oct-15:00 Billericay v Fisher 2.37 3.50 2.37
1 Oct-15:00 Bromley v Windsor & Eton 1.72 3.60 3.75
1 Oct-15:00 East Thurrock v Chelmsford 1.80 3.50 3.50
1 Oct-15:00 Hampton & Richmond v Leyton 1.44 3.75 6.00
1 Oct-15:00 Harrow Borough v Folkestone Invicta 2.00 3.60 2.87
1 Oct-15:00 Hendon v Worthing 2.37 3.50 2.37
1 Oct-15:00 Heybridge v AFC Wimbledon 2.50 3.60 2.25
1 Oct-15:00 Redbridge v Staines Town 3.50 3.50 1.80
1 Oct-15:00 Slough v Maldon 2.00 3.60 2.87
1 Oct-15:00 Walton & Hersham v Margate 2.25 3.60 2.50
1 Oct-15:00 Wealdstone v Braintree Town 2.75 3.50 2.10

Southern

1 Oct-15:00 Bedford Town v Gloucester 1.61 3.50 4.50
1 Oct-15:00 Cheshunt v Merthyr 2.50 3.60 2.25
1 Oct-15:00 Chippenham Town v Yate 1.57 3.50 5.00
1 Oct-15:00 Cirencester v Hitchin 2.00 3.60 2.87
1 Oct-15:00 Halesowen v Chesham 2.25 3.60 2.50
1 Oct-15:00 King's Lynn v Evesham 1.57 3.50 5.00
1 Oct-15:00 Mangotsfield v Banbury 1.61 3.50 4.50
1 Oct-15:00 Rugby Town v Bath City 2.50 3.60 2.25
1 Oct-15:00 Salisbury v Grantham 1.66 3.60 4.00
1 Oct-15:00 Team Bath v Aylesbury Utd 2.37 3.50 2.37
1 Oct-15:00 Tiverton Town v Northwood 1.83 3.50 3.40


Just a quick note.

The odd's are out and there's some crackers!

I have to go out at the moment but I'd like to advise of two bets.

I'm having 5 points on Yeading to beat Eastleigh at 11/10 (Bet 365 - skybet go 4/5)

...and provisionally I'm having 3 points on league leaders Histon away to bottom club Carlshalton at Even money with Skybet ( bet 365 8/11).

So discrepsencies abound as always and I love it!

I'll be back with stats and opinion later.....

[Frodo]

I'm loving the Histon spot. Good job I didn't take the 8/11.

3pts for me.

[A.M.P]

Two bets i'm pondering upon in the Conference are Burton to beat Aldershot at 2.2 and Crawley to beat Altrincham away at 2.62.

Bet 365 haven't got there prices out for Conference or Southern league....

Which reminds me. I'm also liking the 1.72 for the free scoring Mangoes to beat Banbury. Looks like I'll have a few write ups to do when I get back...

[Frodo]

Crawley should give you a decent run for your money at that price. There side on paper is better than their league position suggests IMO. I'm not so sure about Burton though, I could be going with a small stake on Aldershot here.

With Barnard and Holloway getting another substitute appearance under their belts the Shots are looking close to full strength and if (and it's a big if) you trust the reliability of the BBC stats they were unlucky not to get something against Hereford last night (maybe it's because they fell behind after 26 seconds mind). 2/1 or more represents decent value here IMO. There could be a bit of needle too in that Shots defender Greg Heald spent two weeks with Burton before deciding to live and immediately sign for the Shots. The Shots fans aren't happy but then again I guess you wouldn't be if you were a playoff team in the predicament they find themselves in.

[mrmuzeman]

Word on Crawley - they were bloody awful away from home last season. Havent been any better this season in that department either. Although Altrincham are in bother at the moment I wouldnt price Crawley as a value bet.

[A.M.P]

Well, as you can now see Bet 365 have their Conference odds up.

Thanks for your imput Muze and Frodo. I'll take it on board as I look into the games. i listened to the latter part of the Altrincham game last night and they were playing 4/5/1 and we're even sitting back at 1-0 down. I think that their defensive frailities will be more exposed at home when there should be an onus on them to be a bit more attack minded. I agree that 2.5 is not really tempting but Crawley are full of goals at the moment, but are another team who can't defend. However, Stan James go 3.0 so this will be considered by me.

Two other prices which have just caught my eye are Woking at home to Scarborough at 2.0 (I'm just about to perform my post-mortem on why they lost at home to Southport and the best way to punish these teams IMO is to back against them and win - that'll learn 'em...) and the 2.4 Bet 365 have gone for Burton....

AMP

[mrmuzeman]

Im pretty much definitely gonna be on Yeading. Cant really not back against an Eastleigh team who have lost 4 from 4 away (not to mention the beating they took from Havant in the cup on Monday ). With Yeading getting their first home win of the season (conincidentally against Havant - something that gives me confidence) they will surely be looking to follow up here. At against odds its an easy pick for me to take.

Histon (evens) and Staines (5/6) im considering as well. They both look so blummin obvious though its quite worrying! The old cases of top v bottom.

On paper I should back Staines away to Redbridge. Im still thinking about that Eastbourne result though but other than that its a goodun. Staines are 3-1-0 away thus far. Its worth noting who their 3 wins came against as well. Leyton, hendon and Windsor - all three struggling sides which means they can scrap it out against the basement boys. Theyve also scored 2 a game on average this season, never failing to hit the back of the net, so you KNOW theyll score against Redbridge. Redbridge aint scored in their last 2 homes either and have been losing in all 4 games at home at halftime.

In summary im going to be on Yeading for a single and have to think about the other 2.

[A.M.P]

Woking to beat Scarborough 2 points @ 2.0

Playesr arguing with the crowd, the fans calling for the managers head and loosing to teams below you in the league all point me towards a good bet and thats what we have here.

Stat attack: (Just for the Slickster )

Woking are only 3 poiints above Boro in the league.

The respective last five games are:

H Southport Conference (0) 1 - 0 (0) 1,477
A Cambridge United Conference (0) 2 - 0 (0)
H Canvey Island Conference (1) 1 - 1 (1) 1,543
A Tamworth Conference (0) 1 - 0 (0) 1,021
A Exeter City Conference (0) 1 - 1 (1) 3,082

So they are unbeaten in their last five but 4 points from tamworth and Southport at home isn't setting the world alight. if you go back a few results they did manage a 3-1 victory over Stevenage.

'Boro's results:

H Gravesend & Northfleet Conference (3) 3 - 1 (0)
A Canvey Island Conference (0) 0 - 1 (1) 744
A Altrincham Conference (0) 1 - 1 (0) 862
H Forest Green Rovers Conference (0) 1 - 0 (0)
H Southport Conference (0) 0 - 1 (1) 1,280

A similar set of results, again agaisnt some of the poorer team, but that was a decent home win against Gravesend.

Woking just strike me as a team that are starting to believe in theirselves. This is from their match report and manager's comments after the away game to Exeter:

Looking back, a point was a fair result. For all of Woking's possession and forays forward, we didn’t really create enough chances to snatch a victory. The goal aside, the Cards defended very well, with Stuart Nethercott excelling. There were other notable performances from Murray and Smith, who again both performed well in midfield. Five games unbeaten and one goal conceded in the last five matches shows that things are heading in the right direction.

Once we got the equaliser from a superb free-kick by Karl Murray, there was only one team in it. To be honest, I’m disappointed not to have taken all three points and I’m annoyed that a defensive error stopped us from doing so.”

And from the Scarborough forum:

well even from the start u could tell it wasnt going to be our night. we had a few good chances and clarky could and proberbly should have score but over all him and coulson only look like they wanted to give it a go. redfearn was pritty poor again u know all the usual stuff been to slow no passion no vision et etc. from all i can remember southport had 1 shot on target and it went in. poor in defence tonight and then the second came. ohh where do i start, well what bout henry. dont want to jump to conclusions but if we lose on saturday his job is in a very insecure position. the lads came and honestly played as though they just couldn't be arsed. defender got the ball and it went longggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg and to there defence who just looked laughed and sat back. as i said coulson and clark really were our best palyers. im gutted about speight but hopefully its not to serious. tactics in the second half were none existant. to be honest when we down manor road we play better tactics and formation than henry got out of terry venables autobiography. the ESM were great again tonight and didnt really stop singing. friends.gif . but the worst bit of all was at the end of the game. i noticed that as bish came over to clap the ESM a lad from the shed had a go at and there was an exchange of words and finger singles

And to make matters worse for Scarborough (even though I'm gonna punch myself if I back against another "down to the bones" team as they always seem to win...) apparently they've got a striker crisis:

Speight out for 2 weeks

Boro head coach Nick Henry needs a new frontman.... and quick

Jake Speight is expected to be out for at least a fortnight with knee ligament damage after limping out of Tuesday’s defeat to Southport.

"I’d expect it to be two or three weeks," said Henry. "It’s a shame as he was causing them all sorts of problems before he went off and I thought it was only a matter of time before he scored.

"We’re disappointed but Southport deserved it over all. We’re going to have to keep working, show some character and try and find the solution from somewhere."

So all in all 2.0 looks a decent bet.

AMP

[mrmuzeman]

Taken Staines in a double with Chippenham at StanJames at a shade over 2/1.

Chippenham brought to my attention from another forum.

Chippenham have won 4 from 4 (scored 10 conceded 1) at home play Yate who have lost 4 from 4 away (scored 1 conceded 13).

At 4/6 looks a great one, id be expecting 1/3 for a team that seem to be in a state such as Yate.

[A.M.P]

I saw that tip and I'm interested as I also backed Sailsbury at the weekend and I've been backing against Yate a lot prior to that.

The Staines price seems a bit skinny to me so I'll more them likely double Chippenham with the unbeaten Mangotsfield to dispose of Banbury at home or probably Weymouth to beat Maidenhead for 1.8.

[mrmuzeman]

Interesting there AMP. I thought those 2 were a bit skinny myself! Each to their own (as long as they all win)

[A.M.P]

o.k, I believe the Comference South has a host of cracking betting opportunities this week and the ones I'm on so far are (except Weymouth actually as I need to look into it a bit more)

Carshalton Ath v Histon
Eastbourne Borough v Newport County
Maidenhead Utd v Weymouth
Yeading v Eastleigh

What I'm going to do is stick up the table and form guide (I've chosen the last 4 games as only 8 have beeen played) go and have a bite to eat and write some opinion to complement the stats later.

In the meanwhile you can always have a fiddle here:

http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/fo...am=141&count=4

[IMG][/IMG]

[IMG][/IMG]

The most pertinent thing to supplement the stats is that Newport have sacked / got rid of 3 players and transfer listed their star striker after he was sent off in last weeke's humiliation in the FA Cup.

Managereless, it looks like youth team players will be in the line up against Eastbourne who from memory are around the 2.2 mark...

Must dash.

AMP

[A.M.P]

Eastbourne V Newport

Newport have been as layable as Jenna Jameson this season and it looks like the good times are set to continue.

After they sacked their manager a week or so ago a "big" performance was demanded at Chippenham, a team playing in the league below. Well, something "big" was acheived - a 4-0 reverse. This is taken from their site:


25th September 2005

The Board of Directors have today taken swift action to reduce the playing squad, and instil a new discipline amongst players, in readiness for a managerial appointment within the next 10 days. The standards of team performance in recent games have been unacceptable, and the Board has reviewed the playing squad as a consequence.

Dominic Reece, Antonio Corbisiero and Wayne O'Sullivan have all been released by the Club today.

Cortez Belle has been heavily fined as a consequence of his petulant sending-off yesterday, and has been transfer listed.

Glyn Jones will again take charge of the match at Eastbourne next Saturday. The Club is hopeful that Jason Bowen and Ian Hillier will be fit for a return at The Langney Sports Club Ground. A new manager will then take charge of the Club.


Apparently Bowen is one of their key players aswell.

Here's the match report from the last game:


Saturday 24th September 2005

F A Cup Second Qualifying Round

Chippenham Town 4 v Newport County 0

County were dumped out of the F A Cup at the first attempt by an organised and motivated 'Bluebirds' side at Hardenhuish Park. County first forced home goalkeeper Steve Perrin into a save in the final minute - and a weak Mark Draycott free-kick at that - a statistic which underlines County's lack of enterprise and edge in a game in which they simply failed to compete.


County played a 4-4-2 formation with Academy product Dale Evans being drafted in at right back and Ashley Williams moving into a central midfield berth.

Both sides started the match warily. The home side began to take control and on 11 minutes the reliable James Constable had time and space to control a right wing cross before volleying the ball home across goal from 12 yards. County began to press the home defence but failed to create a clear opening. On 19 minutes the lively Sam Allison lashed an angled shot against the County bar, and on 33 minutes Constable was released one on one with Delve to finish with ease and double the home lead. On the stroke of half-time Gilroy rose at the far post to nod home a Herring cross to wrap the game up before the whistle was blown for the interval.

The second half was a drab affair in which Chippenham coasted. County were reduced to 10 men when Cortez Belle was dismissed on 57 minutes for violent conduct. A cleared Darren Jones header was the nearest County game to threatenning the home goal. Chippenham added a 4th on 80 minutes when Ross Adams' header from a Herring corner bounced down and across the hapless Delve into the far corner of the net. Allison was guilty of allowing Delve to close down his shot when he had the simplist chance to score in the entire match in the 90th minute.

The final whistle was met with boos and derisory comments from the away support. County's performance was dismal and the losing streak now extends to seven matches. We wish Chippenham well in the next round. The Bluebirds thoroughly deserved their victory - if only County had given them a contest!

You can see from the stats that I posted up previously that they are 2nd bottom and have scored just one goal and conceeded 7 in their last four games, which have been:

A Farnborough Town Conference South 1 - 2
H Histon Conference South 0 - 1
A Lewes Conference South 0 - 1
H Weymouth Conference South 0 - 3

It seems a bit of a shame as all of those teams are fairly decent and in the main they've gone down buy a single goal. However, they've lost those players mentioned in the interim. They've alread lost senior pro Ampadu (whose name rings a bell) and this was the reason given:

"Kwame Ampadu was used to full-time football and training and by his own admission found the adjustment to part-time football a challenge"

Strange one eh? Also it's doubtful that Belle will be playing after being sent off, fined and transfer listed. I note in the Weymouth game that he was played all alone up top and in the Lewes game he created two good chances so I'm sure he'll be surely missed.

Forum dwellers are a pessimistic lot when things are going badly and over optimistic in the reverse scenario. I like this opinion though of rushing back their injured players and the timescale (within 10 days) of the new manager being appointed:

I would also leave Bowen and Hillier out (give them another fortnight if they aren't 100% fit), write this game off and start again with the new manager in a fortnights time. We don't want them getting injured again and being out for the season.

Now could be the time to throw some youngsters in to see what they can do. Not a lot to lose.

So it appears that they will go with some youth players.

So, why the 2.2 about Eastbourne? Despite finishing in the play-off places last season they've started this season dreadfully. They haven't won at home in the league since February. Their last few results are:

H Welling United Conference South 1 - 1
A Cambridge City Conference South 3 - 2
A St Albans City Conference South 0 - 5
H Weston-super-Mare Conference South 1 - 2

The draw at home with Welling is not a bad result based on recent form and the narrow defeat to WSM who are one of the better teams in this league. However, Eastbourne have had a lot of injuries recently and have got a couple of of the treatment table.

They almost went out of the cup to lowly Redbridge on Saturday but spanked them 5-1 (and won me back the money I'd lost on them) at home in the replay.

The match report can be found here:

http://www.eastbourneboroughfc.co.uk...27_sept_0.html

So they must have gained some confidence from that.

Finally, I'm not a massive fan of head to heads but last season Newport lost both games, 3-1 at home and 1-0 away. Either would do me this time.

2.2 Bet365......

AMP

[mrmuzeman]

Hmm youve twisted my arm AMP, if anything else I feel I need to pay tribute to your extra long post and effort with a wager

Only a small one mind and I wouldnt go big on this one in any way. Im still a bit miffed with Eastbourne for the Redbridge debacle but im hoping those 5 goals they scored in the replay will carry forward some much needed confidence.

To be honest you cant see Newport winning and a home win is always more likely than a draw in my mind, so I think the odds should be Evens max on Eastbourne so 6/5 is a bit of value there.

[A.M.P]

Well, this'll keep Muze happy...

Firefox just crashed and I was about to post my hour long post on Histon

I'll surmise the stats. Carlshalton Bottom. Histon top. Carlshalton 5 goals scored in 8, winless and just lost 1-0 to the equally dreadful Maidenhead (after which the manager got sacked) and they got knocked out of the cup to lower league opposition Margate 1-0 (after which the offical match report said the new manager had a massive rebuilding job on). Meanwhile histon were away to another lower league team and they went through 4-1.

That Margate match report and the Maidenhead one can be found here:

http://carshaltonathletic.org/news.htm

They have only lost once at home with 3 draws prior. However, Histon love playing away with 3 away wins from 4. 7 goals coming in these fixtures.

I think that Histon will have to much firepower for Carlshalton. A critisism levelled at the previous manager is that he cleared out during the summer and
brought in players who wouldn't be able to cope with the Conference South. I wouldn't be unduly surprised with a 1-0 / 2-0 scoreline.

Results have certainly proved this and I hope that the dreaded "new manager theory" doesn't rear it's ugly head in this one.

Histon - Evens at skybet last time I looked and a nore realistic 8/11 at Bet365.

Fcuking firefox

AMP