Scottish Premier - 01/02 October

[Beanie]

Sat Oct 01, 2005

15:00 Aberdeen (1.8) Draw (3.3) Motherwell (4.3)

15:00 Dundee Utd (2.38) Draw (3.3) Kilmarnock (2.88)

15:00 Livingston (11) Draw (5.5) Celtic (1.22)

15:00 Rangers (1.2) Draw (6) Dunfermline (13)

Sun Oct 02, 2005

14:00 Falkirk (7.5) Draw (4.3) Hearts (1.44)

15:00 Hibernian (1.62) Draw (3.6) Inverness (6)

Odds from various

[Beanie]

Nice price on Killie and Motherwell there...2.88 and 4.33 @ Bet365 - might get a big enough price on Hearts later in the week too.

United's only home win coming v Livi, with draws to ICT and Aberdeen and a defeat to Hearts - Killie losing to Rangers away, drawing up at Caley and beating Aberdeen, and were a little unfortunate v Falkirk at the weekend.

I'd probably back an inconsistent Motherwell at Pittodrie too(which has been anything but a fortress) at that price.

And for a well rested Hearts side 1.50 or a nice handicap play if it becomes available is another I'll look out for - Falkirk have been no great shakes at home.

[milners]

Another tough card i think, Aberdeen game is tough to predict although like beanie i fancy Motherwell price for value here. I might fancy the Overs in this game as Aberdeen have had 3 out of 4 overs at home this season, both defence's don't look that clever and Motherwell score some quite a lot and Aberdeen have looked like they could create quite a few chances although in recent games they have looked poor.

Might fancy Inverness as a outsider with Hibs being in Europe and a nice tough journey thats too big a price for Inverness I think even though Hibs have played quite well recently but Inverness do work hard for each other.

Don't fancy anything else really.

[Beanie]

Yep...you're probably right on ICT there Milners...6.00

Which obviously means some big prices on handicaps, DNBs, and the lays of Hibs.

Couldn't envisage too much of a price change on that one so plenty time to see how Hibs play on Thursday and then get team news afterwards before taking the plunge.

[crowie]

Yep, certainly another tough card and it doesn't help that what I would call the "poor" sides, Dunfermline, Livi and Falkirk, all picked up points last weekend, two of them away from home. Starts to place doubts when thinking of opposing them again although Livi and Pars should both lose this weekend.

Like Milners and Beanie said, the ICT price looks a bit big. I would certainly be interested in them with a +1 on the AH if possible. Their last 3 games have seen them lose at home to Motherwell 2-1, after being ahead, at home to Hearts 1-0 (goal disallowed due to poaching striker!) and 2-1 at Celtic, after being ahead.

No one is humping them this season and the Celtic loss was their only away defeat this season, and only their 2nd in 14 away league games dating back to December 2004. As mentioned, with Hibs away in the Ukraine on Thursday they might be a bit "out of it" by the time this game comes around.

Will keep my eye open on the AH markets.

[Parahandy]

Echo what's been said so far. Dundee Utd v Killie is a nightmare of a match for the punter. Had a look at H to H and Killie have not won in the last 5 at Tannadice but did win 4 on the bounce immediately prior. Killie have faded after a bright start losing to Dunfermline and scraping a draw with a dodgy penalty (so Yogi says ) at home to the Bairns.

Neither team can be trusted on recent form and I don't think Killie are a great price given all the circumstances.

Pittodrie has certainly been a happy hunting ground for Motherwell who have one 3 of the last 4. Aberdeen are misfiring and look a lay prospect. Trouble is Motherwell could be anything and are having a real rollercoaster of a season so far. Won't be touching this match.

As has been pointed out Hibs have a long difficult trip and match to play tomorrow and ICT are definitely not a 5/1 shot, probably more on the exchanges. Only been 3 SPL contests between the pair with Hibs winning 2-1 at Easter Road last season in the only one at that venue. Won one apiece in the highlands. I like Crowie's view on ICT +1. That should be good value.

Agree 1.50 is a fair price for Hearts and we might see that.

[kompressaur]

bollocks i was here to say i liked the lok of Aberdeen and Hearts. Killie used to be unbeaten in near 20 games v Dundee utd till lately. Used to be a happy hunting ground for Killie. The over 2.5 in that one gets an early vote for me.

[Beanie]

Interesting to note that Rangers have won the last 11 matches v Dunfermline at Ibrox.

More interesting to note that the last 7 have all been wins by atleast 3 goals, and even with a tough Champions League trip this week, those stats might just be enough to push me into a bet on the -2 Asian handicap at 1.95.

[Beanie]

Livingston likewise...14 straight wins for Celtic in that fixture, with every Celtic win at Almmondvale being by atleast 2 goals.

1.98 on the -2 for this one, although I'll be waiting to see if Pinxten returns before going any further with that research.

[Beanie]

With Motherwell's 3 wins in 4 at Pittodrie, all by atleast 2 goals, it's really tricky to avoid the away win at 4.33 in that one.

As mentioned in this thread they are having a rollercoaster season so far, but if we're of the mind that anything can happen in this one I'd be happy having those odds on my side. Another one I'll still be considering in the morning.

[Beanie]

The overs markets are a bit tempting too.

Don't need to restate Motherwell's stats but they are remarkable, and if they go up and have a go at Aberdeen we should be looking at atleast 3 but probably more there. 1.85 available on the over might just do the job.

1.85 on the over at Dundee united too and as Komp says there's plenty to suggest that one will have plenty chances, as both sides have most of their talent crammed into the attacking third of the pitch. Having said that though United's home games haven't really delivered too many goals...with only the Hearts game going over 2.50. Needs more researching that does...

1.83 for ICT +1(Asian) with Pinnacle...bit of a teasing price that one, but perhaps worth a little tickle.

[Beanie]

No 1.50 materialising on Hearts which is a bit disappointing - and with Falkirk showing their organisational qualities with recent 90 minute draws with both halfs of the old firm, the 1.45 and worse won't attract so much Hearts money this week.

But I'd say that 2.00 for the HT/FT on Hearts with Betdirect might be worth a second look and would be wiser than taking the straight odds - not entirely sure of the stats at the moment, but they are certainly impressive for Hearts first half performances. Will dig them out in the morning.

[milners]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Livingston likewise...14 straight wins for Celtic in that fixture, with every Celtic win at Almmondvale being by atleast 2 goals.

1.98 on the -2 for this one, although I'll be waiting to see if Pinxten returns before going any further with that research.

Wouldn't touch Celtic myself, they are the worse Celtic team i've seen since the early 90's. They have struggled in nearly every game apart from Dunfermline this season. Livingston have improved as well as performances against Hearts and Aberdeen have proved. Wonder what price you would get on livingston to score as Celtic defence isn't great. Good luck if you go with that bet or the Rangers on the handicap - i'm not backing anything this weekend apart from my picks on betfair which i have to do but no way i'm picking on bettingadvice.

The worst card in Scotland this season imho

[Mr Chips]

Aberdeen have only let in goals to CEltic in their last 6 matches. That is 5 clean sheets in 6, not a bad record, two of them games were 3-0 and 2-0 vs Stranraer and Berwick but still managed 3-0 v Falkirk and 2-0 away at Dunfermline.

[Mr Chips]

Dundee United could miss Fernandez tomorrow:

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/output/2...y7593315t0.asp

I like the look of Killie DNB here