SPL PREVIEW 05/06
This summer has seen the usual legal wrangling over places for next season’s SPL which have now become a yearly event on the Scottish footballing calendar. However, with just 5 days to go until the start of the new season, Dundee and Livingston are still disputing the relegation issue from last season, with relegated Dundee demanding that the West Lothian side be docked points for issues surrounding the signing of Hassan Kachloul.
I’ll leave that issue to the side for this preview, and take the situation as it stands with Livingston in the SPL and Dundee doomed to Division 1.
I’ve not bothered to include any pre season friendly notes, as there is very little point. They usually prove to be misleading, and teams use the games for different reasons.
I can’t separate the bottom 5 at the moment, so the predicted places for those are nothing more than stabs in the dark.
Here’s my team by team take on things:
Aberdeen
Last Season: Missed out on 3rd spot and a
Uefa cup place on goal difference to Hibs after a generally good season. After a bottom 6 finish in 2003/2004, the luring of successful manager Jimmy Calderwood from Dunfermline was always destined to be the start of a strong, long term plan for the Dons, and despite the last day disappointment of last year, they could then reflect on superb progress both financially and on the pitch last year. Crowds returned to almost their highest for a decade, and most will fancy Aberdeen to continue progress in all areas this year.
New Singings: Aberdeen have had a successful summer in the transfer market, adding a few strong buys without losing any of their important players or promising youngsters. Winger Jamie Smith(ex Celtic) will have a chance to fulfil the potential he showed as a youngster, midfielder Barry Nicholson from Dunfermline will be able to mount a push for a Scotland squad place on the back of a good season, and he has the ability to do so. The other main signing is that of Steve Lovell from Dundee for £200,000, and after a few years playing well in a poor Dundee squad, he should revel with the better service he is provided up front. The deal for their Polish target has fallen through, but might still capture Shaun Maloney from Celtic on loan.
Current Squad: Strong overall, and the signings in midfield and upfront should complement an already strong defence. Players like Zander Diamond and Russell Anderson will be expected to replicate last years strong seasons at the back. Perhaps their Achilles heel will be in goal, where Ryan Esson will battle out the first team place with Jamie Langfield. Neither is of anything more than a general SPL standard, and Aberdeen’s rivals might have the edge over them in goal.
Manager: Jimmy Calderwood is one of the best SPL managers, perhaps best illustrated by the collapse of Dunfermline last year after he took them to 4th place and a cup final the year before. Ambitious to challenge the Old Firm.
Prediction: 4th
Celtic
Last season: Arguably the strongest side in the league last season, but suffered yet another final day disappointment when losing out in the dying minutes to Motherwell to hand the title to Rangers. Did put that disappointment to one side when beating Dundee United in the Scottish Cup Final the week after, but in truth it was scant consolation for the league. 2nd means next to nothing for either half of the Old Firm, so all minds will be 100% focused on overturning last season’s disappointment.
Signings: The signing of Polish keeper Boruc looks sound so far – and after the loss of Rab Douglas and Magnus Hedman the competition between Boruc and young David Marshall should be strong. Up front Polish signing Maciej Zurawski and Jeremie Aliadiere will offer a new dimension to the raw power of Sutton and Hartson, while defenders Mo Camara, Adam Virgo and Paul Telfer are solid, if uninspiring signings. Shunsuke Nakamura joined today, and while all signings are solid, it is how they gel as a team that will determine the success of the side. The high number of new signings, large number of nationalities and loan singings could pose a problem.
Current Squad: Players like Hartson and Petrov will continue to be key to Celtic’s success. Balde and Varga are good enough for the SPL, but have been found wanting on the European stage on occasion, and for their European adventures Celtic don’t look any more prepared than in recent years. Will be hoping youngsters like Beattie and McGeady make the big step up to take on responsibility from older, less mobile players. Gap between them and the other 10 teams in the SPL still huge though.
Manager: Gordon Strachan has shown his abilities with Coventry and Southampton, but managing Celtic will be a unique and new experience for him. The pressure of having to win every week, and fans demanding league success against bitter rivals is a test many managers have performed poorly under. Time will tell.
Prediction: 2nd
Dundee United
Last Season: Perhaps the most underperforming team of last season, who were in relegation danger until the final ten minutes of the season despite heavy financial backing in the transfer market from owner Eddie Thompson. His and the fans’ demands of success saw Ian McCall get the sack last season, and similar abject performances from a decent squad will see new manager Gordon Chisholm under similar pressure. Reached the Scottish Cup Final however, and will enjoy a foray into European football this season.
Signings: Lost goalkeeper Tony Bullock to Gillingham, so singing of Derek Stillie from Dunfermline was a must. Biggest activity of the summer was in beating off competition from Hearts and Aberdeen to the signing of Bristol’s Scotland Cap Lee Millar, who enjoyed a successful spell at Hearts last season. His signing has proved to be vital after United lost striker Jason Scotland to work permit problems, and it United’s season could well hinge heavily on Millar continuing his impressive form in front of goal.
Current Squad: As stated, it’s a strong squad, put together over the last year or two with heavy financial backing. The key is that the side is mostly Scottish, and has suffered very few changes over the summer. In terms of continuity and not needing the side to gel, they are perhaps the best prepared in the league. Will be looking for youngsters like Gary Kenneth and Stuart Duff to continue last season’s improvement.
Manager: Gordon Chisholm had some impressive results at the end of last season when put in the job, steering the out of the relegation zone with wins over sides like Rangers and Hearts. Has shown promise, but this season will be the real test.
Prediction: 6th
Dunfermline
Last Season: Undoubtedly one of the worst footballing sides in the league under Davie Hay, and if it hadn’t been for his removal and the intervention of Fife demi-god Jim Leishman for the last few games the Pars might well have been preparing for life in Division 1. Promising signings of the Young brothers from Aberdeen and Simon Donnelly failed to deliver the goods on the pitch, and the fans were quickly on the back of an uninspiring side. Very tough season overall. Ordered to rip up their artificial pitch only a few weeks ago and replace it with grass, which will put a huge strain on already tight finances.
Signings: Having lost key players like Barry Nicholson and Derek Stillie, it was imperative Dunfermline acted well in the transfer market. And by all accounts, they haven’t. Mark Burchill is a big signing, and the Pars undoubtedly had huge goalscoring problems last season, but Burchill didn’t impress too much on loan at Hearts, and looks nothing better than most SPL sides have at their disposal. Bryn Halliwell is not the answer to replacing Derek Stillie, and signing players like Scott Morrison from Aberdeen appears nothing more than filling out their squad. Perhaps two more signings to come, but for Dunfermline’s sake they better be good.
Current Squad: A small squad which was very poor last season remains. Players like Lee Makel will be important, but the news that he is injured for the start of the season will be a big blow. A vulnerable defence, a midfield with no creativity, and a strike force getting little service and scoring few goals means that pre season training will have to be constructive. After last season, the fans will be quick to criticise if things don’t start well, and another tough season looks in prospect.
Manager: Jim Leishman showed he had the team superbly motivated for the final few games of last season, and that is his gift. However, getting the team up for games on a cold Wednesday night in January in Inverness will be completely different to doing the same for a relegation decider. He’s a motivator, not a tactician, and that might be found out this season.
Prediction: 12th
Falkirk
Last Season: Blazed a trail in Division 1, and their only challengers Clyde were well out of sight in the last few months of the season. After a few near misses at promotion as a result of stadium issues, it’s a season that had been a few seasons in the making, and a good balance of experience and youth saw them easily promoted in what had looked a competitive league. Their off field set up has improved very well as well.
Signings: With many older players, it was always going to be important for Falkirk to ensure they made some shrewd signings to prepare for life in the SPL. Signings like Craig Ireland, Steven Thompson and Matt Glennon look solid enough for life in the lower half, but it means they will for the most part rely on last season’s team.
Current Squad: Daryl Duffy was outstanding last season, with his goalscoring exploits earning him a Scotland U21 call up and clubs lining up for his signature over the summer. To their credit Falkirk have kept hold of him, and will be looking for 10-15 goals this season from him. They might well need them, as much of their squad is made up of players who had their best SPL years 4 or 5 years ago(Latapy/O’Neil) or youngsters untested at this level.
Manager: John Hughes led the team to the title on the pitch last season, and looks to be a good young manager with good tactical awareness. Working to a tight budget, but will know that his only objective will be to keep the team up, so if they can get off to a good start the pressure will be off. If not, the team could struggle badly under pressure.
Prediction: 11th
Hearts
Last Season: A season of transition for the Gorgie side, with changes in the management, in the board room, and controversy over the ground. With all that going on, Hearts didn’t even manage to mount a challenge for 3rd place as they usually do, and the only bright spot was a strong
UEFA Cup showing, as well as a few international call ups for many of their important players. New Lithuanian Owners taking over from the hated Chris Robinson certainly promises an interesting next year or two.
Signings: 10 days ago Hearts preparations for the new season had barely started, having missed out on numerous signing targets. A week and a half on, and things are taking shape very nicely. They’ve completed the signings of the highly rated Skacel and Edgaras Jankauskas, the former Porto and Real Sociedad front man. With potential signings of Pospisil and Roman Bednar, Hearts atleast on the face of it appear to be making signings with a view to bridging the gap with Celtic and Rangers.
Current Squad: It had looked like Hearts might lose a few key players this summer, with Hartley and Webster, both Scottish Internationals, linked with moves away. However, they have managed to keep last season’s squad together well, with captain Pressley signing a new deal. With the back three of Keeper Gordon, Webster and Pressley, and key men Hartley and Saul Mikoliunas to add to the new signings, the backbone of the team looks as good as any out with the Old Firm.
Manager: George Burley took over this summer, and after some success down south it looks like a role he is ready to revel in. Money to spend, the backing of the board and a currently strong squad means he has a perfect chance to show his talents.
Prediction: 3rd
Hibernian
Last Season: Outstanding season last year for Hibs, beating off Aberdeen and Hearts to finish third and gain a
Uefa Cup spot. They started off very poorly, with Tony Mowbray and his young team struggling in the first 2 months, but after that the Edinburgh side went on an astounding run, often challenging the Old Firm form wise and with many of their youngsters emerging as cracking players. Missing out on the Scottish Cup final was a huge blow, but attendances improved markedly, and some of those benefits might well be seen this season.
Signings: Not many – added Michael Stewart who was at Hearts last season(I’m sure he’ll get a warm welcome at Tynecastle) as well as Polish keeper Malkowski and a few youngsters. Still have a few players on trial, so perhaps one more signing on its way. They needed some goalkeeping competition, but apart from that it was more a case of relying on the development of their young players this season.
Current Squad: Same as last season generally, but most importantly they managed to keep hold of Derek Riordan, perhaps the most promising youngster in Scottish football. No problems with continuity as the team has already had a year together, so this season will depend on their young stars like Riordan, O Connor, Shields and Brown improving on last year even further. Their defence is perhaps the only weak spot, with players like Gary Smith past the peak of their careers.
Manager: Tony Mowbray is yet another promising young manager in the SPL, and will be ultimately destined for bigger things than Hibs. His dealings with the media are first class, as is the way he protects his players from the hype. Nothing to suggest he wont guide his team to another good season.
Prediction: 5th
ICT
Last Season: The SPL’s new boys impressed everyone with their measured performances under John Robertson and then player manager Craig Brewster. A well put together side, encompassing experienced SPL players like Barry Wilson with the clubs own youngsters, and the odd star turn in the shape of the exciting ex-Hearts attacker Juanjo. Many predicted a speedy return to the 1st Division for Inverness, especially as they had to play their home games hours away in Aberdeen for the first half of the season, but they managed to start well, and once the Caledonian Stadium in Inverness was finished, that gave them a timely boost at Christmas time, and their home form was very impressive in the run in.
Signings: Very little activity for Inverness, who will mostly be relying on last season’s squad to do the business again. A handful of youngsters have joined up, with perhaps the only bigger name signing being Craig Dargo who was released by Kilmarnock. Dargo is now 27, and is someone who has never realised the potential he showed as a youngster, but the fresh start offered to him could be just what he needs.
Current Squad: As said, the team last season certainly performed superbly. That leaves the problem that they will need to do so again just to repeat last season’s 8th place finish. Many key players like Darren Dods, Barry Wilson and Craig Brewster are now approaching the end of their careers, and it’s a little difficult to see Inverness repeating their success of last year. As Livingston found out a few years ago, the second season up in the SPL is often a whole lot more difficult than the first.
Manager: Craig Brewster knows that he will only be required to keep the team up this season, and with the solid organisation of the team and the abilities he has shown so far, they should achieve that.
Prediction: 8th
Kilmarnock
Last Season: The usual mid table finish from Killie, who yet again never looked in relegation trouble, yet never looked good enough to challenge the big 5 in Scotland. They did encounter financial problems last season though, and were beginning to feel the squeeze towards the end of last season. A team which has appeared to tread water for the last 3 or 4 years, and might now be just getting a little bit tired.
Signings: Virtually none, other than the singing of promising defender Fraser Wright from Stranraer. Nothing for the fans to get exciting about, as the team looks to be going stale.
Current Squad: This summer has been all about keeping a hold of Chris Boyd, the one bright light from last season for Killie. Scored all 4 goals in their pre season friendly with Ayr a few days ago, but has refused to sign a new deal, and with Killie keeping a close eye on the budget it is unlikely any new deal will be agreed. That means it is almost certain that Boyd will leave for England in the next couple of weeks, leaving Killie looking very lightweight up front. If Killie continue to ask for over £250,000, which I don’t see them getting, then the benefit of Boyd staying will be offset by the financial loss. They have also lost Freddy Dindeleux at the back, a very experienced defender, and have done nothing to replace him. The outgoing Chairman bailed the team out at the end of last season, but without his money being pumped into the club, some tough financial times are ahead, and no money is available to add to the side. A lot will hinge on the impressive Danny Invincible.
Manager: Jim Jeffries – been at Killie for many seasons now, and just adds to the idea that things need a big shake up at the Ayrshire club. His tactics and signings are uninspiring, reflected in dwindling attendances, and if the team starts poorly it wont be long until he is under pressure. Will not be a surprise to see him leave them this season.
Prediction: 10th
Livingston
Last Season: Yet another season of turmoil at Livi, 3 different managers taking the reigns and Richard Gough leaving at the end of the season. Finally exited administration as Pearse Flynn took control, and that turned into a double celebration as Livi avoided defeat on the final day decider with Dundee to stay up. Having become detached at the bottom of the league at times it was perhaps the late signings of Hassan Kachloul and Eric Delemeaux which ultimately saved the side, but expect a much changed side on the park this season.
Signings: Still 3 or 4 signings to make, but so far the signs are good. Harald Pinxten, Dave McKay, Dubi Tesevic, Ludovic Roy, Paul Tierney and Ramon Pereira have all been added, and most have made promising starts in friendlies. However, new manager Paul Lambert will have to add to almost every area of the pitch apart from in goal if Livi are to have a successful season.
Current Squad: Losing Burton O Brien to Sheff Wed sees the one exceptional Livi player leave for nothing, a huge blow to the side. Scottish International David McNamee is out injured for atleast six months, and the two outstanding signings of last season, Eric Delemeaux and Hassan Kachloul, have both left. Extended deal for Roddy McKenzie in goal and Emmanuel Dorado(new club captain) at centre back are vital, but without some more strong signings it looks a weak squad.
Manager: Paul Lambert is completely untested in management, but has taken time to study the game and earn his badges, so has every chance to be a success. Seems to realise that it will be a tough season, and as long as he understands the job in hand he could turn out to be a positive appointment.
Prediction: 9th
Motherwell
Last Season: Another good season for the young side, who sealed yet another top six finish as they continue their recovery from administration. Over the last few years Butcher has added shrewdly to his squad to make it a solid outfit, not capable of challenging the likes of Hearts, Hibs and Aberdeen, while staying safely clear of the relegation zone. Also managed to reach the CIS cup Final before going down to Rangers, and will be happy to repeat the performances of last season.
Singings: Almost the quietest of all the SPL clubs in the transfer market. Signed young keeper Graeme Smith from Rangers to offer Gordon Marshall some competition in goal, but very little activity other than that.
Current Squad: Lost Barry Corr in goal and Richie Partridge in defence, but team has generally been kept together. Signing of Smith is important as Marshall has become a liability in goal, despite Butcher’s continual backing of the 40 year old. More and more responsibility will fall on players like Davie Clarkson, Richie Foran and Scott McDonald as players like Phil O Donnell and Scott Leitch approach the end of their playing days at the highest level. Should have a strong season again.
Manager: Terry Butcher is another who should move onto a bigger job in Scotland or England soon, have transformed Motherwell into a very solid outfit after their administration troubles. Again, another that has superb media skills, and he’ll be sure to guide Motherwell through another strong season.
Prediction: 7th
Rangers
Last Season: Poor start, strong finish sums up Rangers last year. Manager Alec McLeish was 1 penalty shoot out from the sack in the
Uefa Cup vs Maritimo, but having come through that they improved throughout the season, culminating in snatching the title on the last day of the season. Won the Cis cup too, but supporters will be hungry for European improvement after another low key exit last year. Like Celtic, the key will be how the new team gels, but signs are more positive on the blue side of Glasgow.
Signings: Have strengthened all over the pitch, with high profile singings of Fanfan, Nieto, Hemdani, Ian Murray, and Dany N’Guessan. Nieto age hit up front for Rangers, and playing for Rangers in the Scottish league is certainly the place to hone your striking skills. Alongside Novo and Prso, I think we can expect a decent season from him. Hemdani appears very experienced, and should form a solid partnership with Barry Ferguson in the centre of the park.
Current Squad: The signing of Ferguson late last season has given the squad a much more solid look, which can only be added to by the new signings. Only big loss is Soto Kyrgiakos, but of the others deemed surplus to requirements and up for sale like Michael Ball and Dragan Mladenovic, none will be a big loss. The return of Stefan Klos in goal is a huge boost too, after he missed a lot of last season through injury. Overall, the squad looks very strong.
Manager: Alec McLeish has come through numerous spells of big pressure at Rangers, so he knows what its all about. The difference this season is that he is up against Gordon Strachan rather than old adversary Martin O Neill, so he can rightfully claim to have the experience of the situation on his side. I’m expecting his Rangers side to start the stronger.
Prediction: 1st
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That gives a vague predicted league of:
1. Rangers
2. Celtic
3. Hearts
4. Aberdeen
5. Hibs
6. Dundee United
7. Motherwell
8. Inverness
9. Livingston
10. Kilmarnock
11. Falkirk
12. Dunfermline
As I see it we’ll have 4 sections to the SPL again like last year: the big two at the top, the battle for 3rd, those safe one or two in the middle and 4 or 5 sides battling to avoid the one relegation spot.
Celtic v Rangers: I'm favouring Rangers here, but only as I can see them starting the stronger. Whoever then goes on to improve the most during the season will have much more of a bearing of who ultimately wins the title, but as that is anybody’s guess what with all the new signings on both sides, the early advantage is all I can base my opinion on just now. From the basis of the pre season friendlies, and from the overall look of both squads, Rangers look the more solid and certainly the more settled just now. McLeish has been here before, and by the looks of things has added wisely. Strachan on the other hand will have to adapt to the demands of the job quickly, and his signings have a far less structured look to them I can see Celtic dropping a few sloppy points in the first round of games and conceding an early lead to Rangers. After that, who knows?
Hearts v Hibs v Aberdeen: Two weeks ago I favoured Aberdeen strongly here, but Hearts look ready to put together a very impressive squad. Aberdeen have added just a handful of players, but they are all strong, and for the first time they look a lot stronger than the bulk of teams in the division. Hearts are a bit of an unknown quantity, with so many new signings, new owners and a new manager. But taking each on its merits, with the quality of the new signings, the good management of Burley, and the financial backing of the board, along with the strong team already in place, then they could prove to be a cut above if it all comes together. A signing like Jankauskas is a lot better than any other club from the other 10 could manage. I’ll chance Hearts to take 3rd. Hibs youngsters would have to play outstandingly well again, and while another good season looks likely, with the improvement of the Aberdeen and Hearts squads it looks unlikely they will take 3rd.
Dundee United and Motherwell: Both very safe in my eyes. Motherwell squad isn’t any different from last season, so there’s no reason why Butcher won’t steer them through a very similar season. D United squad is similar in many ways, with a lot of good Scottish youngsters along with the more experienced pros. Miller and Crawford should be a cracking pairing up front, with the pace and power to worry most defences. In my eyes it’s that partnership that will give them the edge over a side like Motherwell.
Bottom 5: To be honest, these 5 could finish in absolutely any order, and you could make convincing cases for any one of them to go down. In the end it might well be managerial decisions which set them all apart, and with so young managers like Lambert, Brewster and Hughes, older ones like Jeffries, and the more motivational type like Leishman, it’ll be an intriguing battle. The singings over the next month could have a large bearing as well, so it’s any one from 5 to go down for me.
Peace!
SPL Preview 05/06
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The start of the season is creeping up now, can't believe it's suddenly almost the end of July 
