Okay, its about time we started bringing this thread to some sort of conclusion...
First off:
Kilmarnock vs Hearts
Background
Hearts come into this game following a summer of change, which rounded off a season that was most certainly one of transition. July 2004 and Hearts were facing the possibility of selling of their ground to service a £20m debt, were still under the stewardship of hated chairman Chris Robinson, and were managed by Craig Levein.
One year on, Levein (and his successor John Robertson) have left, as has Chris Robinson, to be replaced by Lithanian Vladimir Romanov, who has secured the future of Tynecastle. It has then fallen on new manager George Burley to rebuild his side with the backing of Romanov in order to once again attempt to become the 'third force' in Scottish football.
Killie too have had their troubles in the last year. Another mid table finish in the SPL was followed by revelations of the Rugby Park sides' financial troubles, and the now departed Chairman Jim Moffat had to bail the club out as he left in order to prevent the administrators moving in. The result has been a summer of cost cutting and very little transfer activity in Ayrshire.
Form
Well, its game number one of the season, so the usual form indicators don't apply. But the pre season preformances can be considered(with a pich of salt)...
Given the flurry of transfer activity in Gorgie, I think it is only reasonable to consider Hearts' two most recent performances. First up is a 1-1 draw against a Middlesborough side, where the Premiership outfit fielded an almost full strength line up. Manager Burley commented: "It was a better performance than I could have hoped for." Next up they beat Hull City 1-0, and by all accounts could and should have won more convincingly after dominating proceedings. So all in all, after looking ill-prepared, the Hearts team looks to have taken shape quickly within the last week.
Killie were edged out by both Cardiff and Southampton, 2-1 and 3-2 respectively. Both games were tight affairs, with both sides fielding strong sides - and the Killie youngsters showing up well. Goals for players like Nish, Di Giacomo and Naismith will give Jim Jeffries hope of big seasons from those players. Killie also thrashed Ayr 4-0 in an Ayrshire derby, a good performance with Kris Boyd getting all 4 goals, but more about him later.
Motivation
I'll give the slight edge to Hearts here. Killie are emerging after a summer of wage cuts and virtually no fresh faces, and are well aware a tough season lies in prospect. Things are just beginning to look a little brighter down Hearts way, and there is a real feeling that this Romanov era could be the start of something special.
Signings
Killie have done zilch in the transfer market, apart from signing one player from Stranraer which will certainly not improve what they have, and its all down to lack of money. There is little competition for places in the side, and little to get excited about.
Hearts on the other hand have been very active. After keeping hold of key men like Hartley, Webster and Pressley, they have added some exciting signings. Jankauskas has a superb pedigree at the highest level with Porto, and notched the winner v Hull. Former Celtic target and Marseille midfielder Rudi Skacel, Roman Bednar, a Czech U21 international, and Michal Pospisil of Slovan Liberec have all been added, and all come highly rated and put in strong performances in the pre season friendlies. They lost many players, but all were replaceable and none were standouts last season. With further signings promised, the current players will want to stake an early claim to a first team place.
Team News
Killie will miss David Lilley and Gary Wales for Saturday. Not vital players by any means, but with such a small squad, two players who would have featured on Saturday. Simon Ford is also doubtful.
Hearts don't appear to have many problems, although Bodnar may well miss out with a hamstring problem.
H2Hs
2004/2005 Wed 16 Feb Kilmarnock 1 - 3 Hearts SFAC
2004/2005 Sat 12 Feb Hearts 3 - 0 Kilmarnock SPL
2004/2005 Sat 05 Feb Hearts 2 - 2 Kilmarnock SFAC
2004/2005 Sat 13 Nov Kilmarnock 1 - 1 Hearts SPL
2004/2005 Wed 22 Sep Hearts 2 - 1 Kilmarnock SLC
2004/2005 Sat 21 Aug Hearts 3 - 0 Kilmarnock SPL
2003/2004 Sun 07 Mar Kilmarnock 1 - 1 Hearts SPL
Hearts have a healthy record v Killie at Rugby Park, and overall.
Summary
Killie will rely heavily on Danny Invincible and Kris Bpyd not only in this game, but also all season. Young players are often inconsistent, however promising they may be, and the goalscoring talents of Boyd(which are overhyped) and the quality of Invincible will be needed to take the pressure off the youngsters. Boyd is attempting to win himself a move to England, so he'll surely be fired up, and Webster and Pressley could well have their hands full on Saturday. I'd back them to cope with him though. Invincible is more of a threat.
It could be suggested that Hearts have had no time to gel as a team, but many of the new signings played as trialists in the pre season friendlies, where Hearts put in some superb performances.
In simple terms, Hearts have added players that are probably better than anyone outside the big two in the league can attract. Other than Invincible, I dont think Killie have another player that is in the same league as players like Hartley, Webster, Pressley, Gordon, Skacel(going by reports), Jankauskas, Saul Mikoliunas, and that's over half a team. They have hung onto their best players, and added others, while Killie's side has remained the same, so if anything the gap in quality has widened.
Of course there are question marks over the Hearts side gelling, but with a big travelling support behind them, they have every chance, and I would make them favourites here. The more I think about the game, the more I rate Hearts' chances at towards 50%(or better.)
Which makes the odds very interesting...
Skybet stand out like a sore thumb at 2.63, and I cant believe they make Killie favourites(though they arent the only ones.)
Outstanding value in that price IMO.
The only question that then remains is the stake. A big bet on big value as it appears to me that the bookies aren't up to speed on this Hearts side, or a small bet as much of this preview is based on observations rather than form or cold hard stats.
I'm prepared to go for the former. Once the punters are up to speed on the stats and form, the bookies are too, so if I think I've spotted an advantage like this, a similar chance might not arise all season.
8pts on Hearts @ 2.63 at SkyBet
SPL Weekend 30th/31st July
could be Beanie. Its just too easy for me to get inviolved in this as its just a stroll for me to get that one. Aye i might add it myself as it does seem like a fair shout.
