SPL Without The Old Firm

[crowie]

Just a few quick thoughts on some of the posts.

Hibs look like the could hold onto Riordan. It seems to be a case of he's for sale but no one really is making a move for him and he would probably sign on again at Hibs if terms were right. He doesn't want to leave, they don't want him to leave, its just down to the contract now.

Hearts - they are making noises about spending money, not sure when though. I did see them quoted as being interested in a £750k rated player last week but can't remember his name. Anyone (?). The Webster situation doesn't help and their squad looks thinner by the season but they cold do with spending some of this money now as Weir has pulled an ankle injury and will miss a few weeks.

Aberdeen have added Jamie Smith to midfield as well. Will be interesting to see if he can do anything if played week in week out. He could end up being a decent signing and remember he is a Scottish International (not one of Berti's better decisions!!). They still need a striker though, Whelan didn't do much and is now away but they have a chance with Lovell again after him knocking back Leicester. I assume he has done that in the hope the Aberdeen deal can come off.


As for the rest, Charlie Miller may end up back at Utd and that wouldn't be a bad signing especially with Miller (Lee) and Crawford up front. Bar that not a lot happening but I would be surprised if the 3rd place side came from anyone bar the 3 mentioned above - and IMO its a toss a coin situation to see which of those 3 finish on the top.

[Beanie]

Good post crowie

I do think we've still to see the important close season action from the bulk of teams which will go a long way to determining how successful each side is. Im not mentioning this in relation to 3rd place, as realistically only DU could make decent enough signings to threaten Hearts/Hibs/Aberdeen.

I'll use Livi as an example. The chairman was on our messageboards ealier today mentioning that we will sign 7+ players, which considering our squad size could well constitute over a 1/3 of our players, and so whether we become embroiled in a relegation battle, in mid table wilderness, or even in the top six will depend heavily on the strength of the signings.

[crowie]

Just read on BBC that Aberdeen have agreed a fee with Dundee for Lovell, hope to complete the signing in the next 24 hours. They are also still trialling a Polish striker who scored in the weekend win over Elgin. Currently with Legia Warsaw but it looks like he will go to Holland with Aberdeen for more trials. And I am not even going to try and type his name.

Calderwood is slowly but surely doing the same job at Aberdeen as he did at Dunfermline. Putting together a decent squad of players, some experienced and some with potential, mostly Scots. None are "over the hill" and most could do a job with most other SPL sides. They do probably need to sort out the goalie position though.

[Beanie]

Are they definately going for another keeper?

They signed Langfield, and have Preece and Esson, which Calderwood seemed to think would be the three fighting it out for the first team, but like you say, they really need someone of a higher quality if they want to stamp their authority on third.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Aberdeen will wrap up Lovell today according to newspaper reports up here. He should be a fantastic signing. My mate was at the Montrose game also and watched the Polish trialist score his first goal.

My mate said he was oozing class and would be a fantastic signing. He wasn't match fit and it showed with his finishing as he could have had 4 or 5 goals but his touch and team play was meant to be great. He's really hoping Aberdeen sign him.

Barry Nicholson also played his first match in 3 months and was meant to have settled in very well also.

If these two end up signing for definate its going to be very hard to for Hearts, Hibs etc to topple them i reckon. I was watching on channel 5 yesterday early morning the Uefa cup game between liverpool and Celtic and Jamie Smith was starting. He absolutely tore the Liverpool defence to shreads and like Crowie mentioned, if he displays his potential he will be another hit for the dons.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

As for the Goalie saga. Esson did well for them towards the end of the season and he will be staying, acting as cover for Langfield.

They are trying to offload Preece but he has had no takers at the minute, the sides that are interested in him he hasn't fancied going too. Its a shame really for him as he had a fantastic start to the season and made the Number 1 spot his own. He then got injured and Esson grabbed the opportunity and ousted him.

Personally i rate Preece the better keeper out of him and Esson. Esson is being kept i believe due to being younger, although i got to say ive seen him out in town a few times and hes an absolute arrogant twat!

[crowie]

I forgot about them signing Langfield. You could probably get a good keeper if you merged the 3 of them together but I have doubts about them all individually.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Thats Lovell now officially signed. Still only 24 and got 15 goals last season so should score a similar amount this season.

Talk in the papers up here now is a loan deal with Celtic for Shaun Maloney. It would be a good coup for them and i can see it happening with Maloney being brought up here till he was 17 and the fact Celtic have Zurawski, Alliadiare, Sutton, Hartson and Beattie. You have to wonder if he will get his chance, i doubt it.

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by Kiko

Talk in the papers up here now is a loan deal with Celtic for Shaun Maloney. It would be a good coup for them and i can see it happening with Maloney being brought up here till he was 17 and the fact Celtic have Zurawski, Alliadiare, Sutton, Hartson and Beattie. You have to wonder if he will get his chance, i doubt it.

I'd be surprised, and annoyed, if that one came off.

Lambert already chanced his hand at Maloney on loan, with the wee dick saying he'd rather stay and sit on the bench

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

I wouldnt be surprised Beanie.

When he turned down Livi there was no Alliadiarre or Zurawski around. He must of thought if worst comes to worst it would just be Bellamy that would be in competition with him, now he has two extra to compete with.

Also - Livi would be a bit more dangerous move for him at the minute. New manager coming in, you never know how they are going to fare and the possibility of them being relegated - it would probably harm his career more i reckon.

Aberdeen on the other hand are turning into a side that have ambition and are wanting to go places and this would surely stand out for him more.

[Beanie]

Aye true - let's just leave it as annoyed then.

[Parahandy]

Good thread guys - an enjoyable read. Value shouldn't be seen purely as being about how big the odds are. The question that should be asked is - is the price too big in relation to the probability of the outcome? Of course this is not a precise science but you get my drift.

Lets look at a pointed mythical example; lets say Aberdeen get off to a flying start in the SPL and are then drawn at home in the CIS cup to East Strling who are as usual propping up Scottish League football. If the probability of a Dons win is 95% then 1.10 would be value as the true odds are 1.05. On the one hand some people would say there can never be value in very short odds but professional punters would tell us otherwise.

I also feel Aberdeen could go well this season under the two Jimmys. Crawford knows what he's about and with more firepower, there must be every chance Aberdeen will improve again this season. IMO Crawford did very well last time while implementing Phase 1 of a big rebuilding job.

What I don't think represents value is 9/4 about their chances without the Old Firm. I think it's good practice to convert odds to probabilty and I don't think the probability of Aberdeen winning this contest are as high as 31%. I would say 25% at best (3/1). Only my opinion of course.

The points difference between 2nd and 3rd has varied greatly in each of the last 5 seasons -:

2004-2005 (31pts Hibs/Aberdeen separated on GD)
2003-2004 (23pts Hearts)
2002-2003 (34pts Hearts)
2001-2002 (37pts Livingston)
2000-2001 (16pts Hibs)

I certainly think the gap will be considerably narrower than it was last season. Anybody know of any markets on this?

Unless they get into the Premiership (a debate for another day), the days of the OF splashing the cash are gone for good. Both of them have in the main, been reduced to scouring the Bosman market and going for loan deals. Changed days indeed and it must give the others a better chance.

Hibs played Celtic off the park twice at Parkhead last season, despite losing one of the matches. Aberdeen and Hearts also won there, while Rangers dropped several points to ICT and were unable to beat Dundee Utd in the league, so the signs are there that this trend could gather momentum.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Aberdeen won again last night 9-0 against a highland league side with their new Polish trialist scoring a hat trick. Its looking less likely they are going to be able to afford him now though as it seems Legia Warsaw are wanting more money now.

Papers are buzzing about Maloney up here also - the local paper is pretty reliable aswell for transfer news and said Strachan and Calderwood had already held talks on the move. Willie Millar also refused to confirm or deny which can only mean a good thing for the dons.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

This Maloney deal could becoming more and more likely. Its gathering heat up here in the papers and now Celtic look set to add another striker to their side with Adam Virgo in Glasgow to finalise a £1.5million move.

[Beanie]

He's a defender is he not Kiko?