Scottish Premier League: 10th-11th Feb

[MickeyPaul]

10 Feb 14:00 Hearts v Inverness CT 1.61 3.40 5.00
10 Feb 15:00 Aberdeen v Dunfermline 1.44 3.75 6.50
10 Feb 15:00 Celtic v Hibernian 1.25 5.00 9.00
10 Feb 15:00 Falkirk v Motherwell 2.20 3.20 2.87
10 Feb 15:00 St Mirren v Dundee Utd 2.25 3.25 2.75
11 Feb 14:00 Kilmarnock v Rangers 5.00 3.75 1.53

Odds from Bet365

[SonicReducer]

At first glance: Inverness +0,75 tempts me a bit. The under in Aberdeen - Pars seems to be pretty ok too. Not sure about the rest.
Will Celtic smash Hibs?

[Chief77]

trainbairn mentioned last week how poor Falkirk were and said Motherwell were to be backed at all costs this week. Had a look at the fixture and hes spot on. The 9/4 (12/5 with Stan James) on Motherwell looks huge!

I like stats, so here we go.

Falkirk have played Motherwell 6 times over the last 16 months. Heres the results

Motherwell 4 Falkirk 2
Falkirk 0 Motherwell 1
Falkirk 1 Motherwell 1
Motherwell 3 Falkirk 1
Falkirk 0 Motherwell 1
Motherwell 5 Falkirk 0

Thats 5 wins and 1 draw. 15 goals for 4 against. Motherwell obviously like playing the Falkirk boys.

On to recent form.
Falkirk have been in dissaray since Stokes has left. Their last 6 games have seen them lose 4 and win 2. Those 2 wins were a 1-0 win against bottom side Dunferminline and a 2-0 win against 3rd Division Berwick!
They've lost their last 4 in a row, scoring 0 and conceding 9!
Last week they lost 3-0 at home to 1st Division St Johnstone. The fans weren't happy: http://www.onefinfalkirk.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=13050

Motherwells recent form has been a lot more encouraging
Their last 7 games has seen them win 4 D1 and L2. Those 2 losses were against Rangers and Hibs and the draw was against Celtic.

Heres a quote from the Falkirk website regarding this weeks match.

"As things stand at present I have no confidence in us getting anything from Saturdays game, in fact I can't even see us scoring. I predict a 3-0 win for Motherwell.

I'm not being negative. The way we are playing at present, coupled with the fact that Motherwell are one of our bogey teams will surely mean an away win.

Also, as experienced in recent weeks, it's evident that we can't play against big physical sides who are prepared to sit back and watch us pass the ball to death in the midfield and hit us on the break."

Yep I can't wait til Saturday and I'll be surprised if their still 9/4 by then.
Expect a lot of angry smileys and weeks of sulking if this bet goes tits up.

[edinlichtie]

Originally Posted by Chief77

Yep I can't wait til Saturday and I'll be surprised if their still 9/4 by then.
Expect a lot of angry smileys and weeks of sulking if this bet goes tits up.

5/2 totesport

[WeegieDave]

Agree with Chief, the Motherwell game is a standout bet for me this weekend.

Had a look at the figures and stuff on monday and the 5/6 wins and the form of Falkirk makes it look very tempting. Currently 3.6 available on Betfair.

However, just be aware that runs do come to an end, and there is an old saying that goes about (according to my mate thats a Well fan).

"If you desperately need a result, it probably means you're playing Motherwell next week."


Nice to see he has faith in his team.


Will post my usual stats etc around Thursday for the other games.

[milners]

quick look at SPL and this season my pts score in this league is -13pts!!! But was -23pts so i've improved :D still its my worst out of all the division - one of the few minus though!!!

Anyway back to the fixtures:

Aberdeen vs pars and this points to home win although i think Dunfucks have improved defensively but lose by the odd goal and i except this a tough game as this doesn't suit the dons. Aberdeen have a fantastic record against the pars at Pittodrie and also note the ref we have had we have not concede a goal in 4 games we have had him and also the fact Dunfermline hasn't scored in about 8 SPL games point to a 1-0 to the pars or 5-4 to the dons (i shouldn't joke should i) - anway i don't get involved in overs and unders normally but 9/10 for unders is quite big.

Hearts vs Inverness is a 2pm kick off according to Odds checker is this right??? Can't be can it??? Anyway i couldn't touch Hearts at 4/6 i think they are on the way down now after finding out they are 28 million in debt - i think they will do well to survive as a club now

Celtic vs Hibs and i suppose a few will look at hibs at 9/1 but i don't think hibs are the same side under Collins. So its a stay away from me.

Falkirk vs Motherwell and the 5/2 does look massive given the record and that price will not be there at kick-off i assure you of that. ps i've never seen the trainbairn this negative on his team apart from when they play the dons :D. He's normally too positive on his team.

St Mirren vs Dundee Utd and 15/8 on Dundee Utd looks a tad massive for me as i thought St Mirren was dreadful against the dons in the first half but i don't trust the Dundee Utd defence.

Killie vs the forces of evil (sorry weegie dave :D) nope not interested in Rangers as they haven't fooled me and i still think they aint great.

[WeegieDave]

Thats, Forces of Darkness, if you don't mind.

[Brew'sXI]

Originally Posted by milners

Hearts vs Inverness is a 2pm kick off according to Odds checker is this right??? Can't be can it??? Anyway i couldn't touch Hearts at 4/6 i think they are on the way down now after finding out they are 28 million in debt - i think they will do well to survive as a club now

They changed so it wouldn't clash with the rugby later on in the day

[_d_]

Don't know about 3-0 but agree with all other comments on Motherwell. Whilst Falkirk may well grind out a 0-0 or something, 5/2 for Motherwell is well off the mark so some significant support for them and got the bets in on Monday since as others have said I didn't expect that to last very long.

(edit - just checked, 5/2 still available)

Will go with Dundee Utd as well I think whose odds are too big. Saints were touted as the worst team to go up from the 1st in years and they undoubtebly were. I still can't get over how they got promoted and if they were in the current first division they'd be well behind the top three. V lucky this year to get as many points as they did early on. Utd aint up to much either though but wee Craigy gettin a little bit irked now and will be lowering the specks if they lose again.

[Silke]

Like the look of Motherwell (unsurprisingly enough :p), cheers guys.Anything of note on the injuries/suspensions front for Falkirk/Motherwell ?

[milners]

Originally Posted by Silke

Like the look of Motherwell (unsurprisingly enough :p), cheers guys.Anything of note on the injuries/suspensions front for Falkirk/Motherwell ?

Bit early for injuries but Barr is suspended for Falkirk. Don't think anyone got straight red on the cup.

[WeegieDave]

Some Motherwell team news from my 'Well supporting mate. Excuse any lack of / wrong positions as Im not too versed in their squad positions;

Lasley (M), MacLean (D) and O'Donnell (M) are all long-term injuries and are still out of the squad. Of those, I think possibly all 3 would have been seen as certain starters at the beginning of the season, but Well have been operating ok without them for this long now, especially young Reynolds in the place of MacLean.

Transfer window signings Vadocz (Hungarian U-21 [M]), Molloy (F) and Keegan (F) are all still lacking a touch of match fitness and McCormack (F) has been playing reserve team football and may be fit to appear at some stage (although the 3 before McCormack were on the bench for the Scottish cup game last weekend).

Richie Foran, Wells top scorer with about 14 goals (give or take) in all comps. (although about 6 were pens), was transferred to Southend for £200,000 but there should be sufficient cover, especially in McCormack who was previously at Rangers and IMO is a very good young player (scored against Porto in the CL for Gers away from home in a 1-1 draw).

Other than the above, Motherwell are pretty much at full strength.


This is the team that lined up on Saturday for the cup game against Morton;

(from the BBC)

Motherwell: Graeme Smith, Corrigan, Craigan, Reynolds, Murphy, Darren Lee Smith (McGarry 68), Kerr, Fitzpatrick, Paterson, McDonald, Clarkson (Keegan 82).
Subs Not Used: Meldrum, Quinn, Vadocz.



And this is the team my mate feels is most likely for the weekend;


-----------------------------G.Smith--------------------------

-------Corrigan--------Craigan-------Reynolds-------Murphy

D.Smith or McGarry------Kerr------Fitzpatrick-----Paterson

--------------------McDonald---------Clarkson-------------


Subs: Meldrum (gk), Quinn (D), D.Smith/McGarry (M), Keegean (F), Molloy (F), Vadocz (M) and McCormack (F).


Hopefully trainbairn can help us out with the Falkirk side of things.

[WeegieDave]

Aberdeen v Dunfermline

Last 8 games: Aber - 4-2-2 WDDLWLWW ::: Dunf - 0-3-5 DLLLLLDD

Last 5 Homes/Aways: 3-1-1 (F 9, A 5) ::: 0-2-3 (F 1, A 8)

Last 6 h2h: D 0-3 A, A 1-0 D, D 1-0 A, A 0-0 D, D 0-2 A, D 2-1 A


Aberdeen with good form in the last 8 and maintaining a high level of performance at home, scoring nearly 2 goals a game for each conceded. Dunfermline on the other hand maintaining their woeful performances of late, no wins in 8 games (but actually more than that) and completely unable to score, especially on the road.

The h2h scores seem to suggest that it will be a tight affair at Pittodrie, and with Dunfermline beginning to get back some of their long list of injured players they could sneak a point if Aberdeen get complacent, especially given Dunfermlines last gasp 1-0 win in the Scottish cup over Hearts last weekend.

In terms of Overs/Unders, it is 2/4, with the 2 Overs games just scraping by the 2.5 mark. Cant see Dunfermline scoring if Aberdeen play it tight and not convinced Aberdeen will pop 3 goals, so Unders may be an option.

Prediction: Aberdeen win, as long as they don't get complacent.
Bets: None as yet.
Consider: Unders @ 1.9 with BF.



Celtic v Hibs

Last 8 games: Cel - 5-3-0 WWWWDDWD ::: Hibs - 4-1-3 WLWDWLWL

Last 5 Homes/Aways: 4-1-0 (F 11, A 3) ::: 1-0-4 (F 5, A 11)

Last 6 h2h: D H 2-2 C, C 2-1 H, C 1-1 H, H 1-2 C, C 3-2 H, H 0-1 C


Celtic undefeated in at least the last 8 games, but a few draws having snuck in in that time. Still a superb record of 4-1-0 at home and scoring over 2 goals a game and conceding less than a goal a game. Hibs on the other hand, for all the great football they've been playing, have been struggling away from home recently. 1 win in the last 5 on the road and conceding a lot of goals on their travels.

The h2hs show that games between the 2 teams have been extremely close in the last 6, and although Hibs are 0-2-4, they have been unlucky in the 4 defeats, losing those games by only 1 goal, therefore an AH bet may be good.

Overs/Unders shows these games to be 4/2, but they are probably closer than these stats suggest, so probably a no bet there.

Prediction: Celtic win, possible draw if Hibs play to their potential.
Bets: None as yet
Consider: Offers being taken on BF for AH +1.5 Hibs (currently 1.75), but should be able to get more. Decent shot, considering the difference of only 1 goal between the teams in the last 6 games.


Falkirk v Motherwell

Last 8 games: Fal - 4-0-4 LLWWWLLW ::: Well - 3-1-4 LLDWWLLW

Last 5 Homes/Aways: 4-0-1 (F 7, A 4) ::: 3-0-2 (F 6, A 7)

Last 6 h2h: M 4-2 F, F 0-1 M, F 1-1 M, M 3-1 F, F 0-1 M, M 5-0 F


Falkirk appear to be going into this game on good form, but the stats above don't really represent their recent results and performances, losing at home to St Johnstone 0-3 in the cup being one of the lower points in recent games (as mentioned previously by Chief). Motherwell on the other hand have been playing fairly well of late, with a good win in a tricky cup tie against Morton being one highlight. Decent away form scoring goals, but conceding as well. Compared to Falkirk though, definitely the form team of the two.

Interesting fact of the h2hs shows that Motherwell are 5/6 in wins of the last 6 games between the two teams, and going with this, they do appear to be ridiculously over-priced going into this game, although you should be wary of the good run having to end at some point. Hopefully not this weekend though, as I'm already on Well!!

Overs/Unders are 3/3 and so probably to tight to bet on.

Predictions: All 3 results possible, but going on form possibly a M'well win or a draw.
Bets: Motherwell win @ 3.4 with BF
Consider: No others as yet.


Hearts v ICT (2pm Saturday)


Last 8 games: Hearts - 4-2-2 DWLWDWWL ::: ICT - 3-2-3 LWDWLWDL

Last 5 Homes/Aways: 3-0-2 (F 9, A 6) ::: 0-2-3 (F 3, A 10)

Last 6 h2h: I 0-0 H, H 4-1 I, I 0-0 H, H 0-0 I, I 0-1 H, H 0-2 I


Hearts as usual, the team you really need the team news for before you can think about betting on them. Will Gordon play or not? Whats the team going to look like? On the field, they are coming off the back of a poor 1-0 loss to Dunfermline in the cup but still looking decent at home in terms of wins and goals for/ag. Off the field, more stories and even more speculation about players and takeover bids from various sources. ICT on the other hand, experiencing a poor away record, with no wins in 5 away games and conceding 2 goals a game on average.

H2hs showing that these games are tight, 3 games of the last 6 being 0-0 in score, and overall 5/6 ending in Under 2.5 goals, so possibly a worthy bet on Unders if form is anything to go by.

Predictions: Hearts win, possibly in a tight game.
Bets: None as yet
Consider: Unders @ around 1.92 on BF


St Mirren v Dundee Utd

Last 8 games: StM - 1-3-4 LLLDWLDD ::: DunU - 2-2-4 DLLLWDLW

Last 5 Homes/Aways: 1-2-2 (F 4, A 7) ::: 1-1-3 (F 6, A 12)

Last 6 h2h: D 1-0 St, St 1-3 D.


One of those games that could end up as a 0-0 bore draw of no chances or 6-5 due to poor defences. St Mirren in poor form, very little wins in the last 8 or at home, and being outscored by opposition teams. Pretty similar story for Dundee Utd, although with one more win than the Saints but scoring and conceding more away from home.

Dundee Utd have the edge over St Mirren in this years 2 previous games, including a convincing 1-3 victory away at Love Street. Can't really separate the teams in terms of form, so probably no bet on either the win or the Overs/Unders.

Prediction: Could go all 3 ways
Bets: No bet
Consider: Possible small bet on big odds for Utd; 3.2 @ BF


Kilmarnock v Rangers (Sunday)

Last 8 games: Kil - 3-1-4 WWLLDLLW ::: Gers - 4-3-1

Last 5 Homes/Aways: 1-2-2 (F 3, A 5) ::: 3-0-2 (F 5, A 4)

Last 6 h2h: R 3-0 K, K 2-2 R, K 1-3 R, R 4-0 K, K 2-3 R, R 3-0 K


Kilmarnock getting a good couple of wins recently after a run of 5 without victory. They'll be trying to recapture their good form of the last few months after losses to Motherwell and Hibs. They've been struggling for goals at home as well. Rangers with great form over the last 8 games, and picking up some away form as well, however, they could do with scoring a few more goals as they have been a bit shot shy in previous games, such as 1-0 away to Dunfermline and 0-0 with Hearts at Ibrox.

In terms of the h2hs, Rangers have been victorious in 5/6 of the last games and 2-1-0 at Rugby Park. The Overs/Unders line shows that the last 6 games have been 6/6 in favour of Overs. Normally I'd be looking to get onto the Overs bet with stats like that, however in this case I think theres a difference.

Rangers new defensive pairing in the last 3 games have yet to concede a goal both home and away. Pair this with the fact that Rangers recent away goals for/ag is only 5/4, whilst Killies for/ag. is only 3/5 and I believe that this game might be the one to buck the trend for Over 2.5 goals. As the stats point to Overs, the value bet may be Unders IMO.

Predictions: Killie always give Rangers a good game at home, but I still think Rangers win in a close battle.
Bets: None on as yet
Consider: Rangers win @ 1.8 and Unders @ 2.04, both on BF.


Hopefully, post all the early team news tomorrow.

[Bigkegman]

Spoke to a couple of season ticket holders for Falkirk and they agree that Motherwell must be backed this weekend. Not much to add that really.

[trainbairn]

As Milners said I have never been more negative about my teams chances and if the game was away from Home I would be sitting down and watching the Totesport Trophy meeting at Newbury rather than going to watch it..