F A Cup Final

[Keith]

I wrote on the PL forum just before Man U played Everton why I thought that they were a dreadful price to win that particular game.

BTW although Everton won I cannot claim that I have ever suggested that they would do so.

Anyway my argument that week was that Man United form was questionable. They had struggled to beat Portsmouth and Fulham and had only drawn with Blackburn and Palace. I didn't even suggest that their defeat at Norwich was a factor knowing that they had fielded an understrengh team.

Their "impressive" victories had been in FA Cup matches. They beat Everton but David Moyes had said beforehand that his priority was the league. They thrashed Southampton but their manager had the same agenda and had completely changed his midfield and rested others. They hammered Newcastle who had just got off the plane from Portugal minus 10 or more first team players

Since then they have scrambled past another understrengh Newcastle line up and beat the team with the worst Premiership form currently in the shape of Charlton.

Then came West Brom and Chelsea.

Why therefore were they favourites to win The FA Cup. I took evens last weekend on Arsenal. You can't get that anymore. However, there may still be some value in backing the Gunners on the 90 minute front at 13/8 with Premierbet.

I know this is cup football and anything can happen in a one off match but if we go with the form side then they are just as likely to do the job inside normal time.

[daikoku]

Nice analysis WAS, I'm going to have a slice of Arsenal in normal time with medium stakes.

Enjoy the holiday ya lucky bas....

[kompressaur]

I think its the end for Man Utd. I can see them being generally disappointing to the end this season. I think they have even lost the believe and the spirit doesnt seem to be there. Any Man U fans know how the team gets on in the dressing room? A young boistrous Rooney maybe upsetting the apple cart and creating cliques? Older players having been there in the glory years maybe all a nit disalluisoned with the team as a bonded unit as they think back 'to when we were great' and have one eye on trying something differant.

Anyone think Beckham's departure had anything to do with it?

Soz if this sounds off-topic to some but not to me as i believe team spirit and the mood in the dressing room to be just as an important factor as injuries, formations and bogey teams.

the over 2.5 surely? Nah maybe not A dour 1-0 can be expected in FA Cup Finals. Be great if it was like that sunny day in 79(??) with the dramatic late goals.

[GETT1NLOTS]

I think that Arsenal are a good bet to beat Man Utd in the FA Cup final too. Henry has won his battle with injury and should play according to the papers. Gilberto is now back in the Gunners side and Arsenal have not lost in 47 games when he is in the starting line up.

I also agree with Komp that morale can play a big part in a teams fortune and Man Utd can't have much of a good feel about the place at the moment. They are in the news for all the wrong reasons - Rio wont sign, Glazer takes over, Rooney slaps his bird and crashes his car....

I'll be laying Man Utd against Arsenal in the FA Cup final.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Cancel some of the above.

It looks like Henry wont make it after all.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/foot...al/4457013.stm

[mr onemore]

There's going to be huge amounts of money speculated on this game - a lot of it very casual, once-a-season type punters too.

So....isn't it justified to suggest that because of the nature of the game and the types of wagers put on by Joe-Football-Public that the following must be value bets?

Correct score, 0-0 come on, what Sunday punter likes to watch a game and have money on a 0-0

Match result, draw again, everyone has an opinion on this game, and it's never 'draw!' is it...

I'm sure there are other bets too - but they're mostly variations of the above, for example, 'under' must be value too...

What does everyone think?

[GETT1NLOTS]

Yeah good point Mr Onemore.

If I understand you though you are suggesting that because this is like a Grand National event (where clueless Joe public wagers on their favourite colour) it follows that value can be found?

Here's my thoughts.

a) High St bookies will tend to keep their odds fixed on football irrespective of Joe Public's betting unless their is a massive betting coup in evidence.

b) This argument might work on exchanges where I agree value can be found.

[traeth]

Originally Posted by GETT1NLOTS

b) This argument might work on exchanges where I agree value can be found.

agree with most of your comments , but I doubt if Joe public has an account with the exchanges.

I believe a draw is a good bet 0-0 [ no goal scorer], or 1-1

cheers

[all_funkt_up]

Arsenal would be favourites for me, but they have a few injuries and the whole Cole affair cant have helped this week. 2 days he hasnt been able to train as far as I am aware because he has been at the hearing in to the tapping up business.

Arsenal's last few results flattered for me to be honest, they werent worthy winners against Liverpool and in my opinion werent worthy 7 goal winners against Everton.

Gonan have a think about it and immerse myself in the papers but the draw looks the best bet to me on balance at present...

[christianu]

Originally Posted by all_funkt_up

Arsenal's last few results flattered for me to be honest, they werent worthy winners against Liverpool and in my opinion werent worthy 7 goal winners against Everton.

Id have to disagree there, i thought they did enough in the first half against Liverpool to see them through and just relaxed after that. Against Everton im not sure how you can say that, they were superb, granted Everton were crap.

However against W.B.A they were not that convincing and there last result against Birmingham wasnt encouraging, but those matches did not matter to much to them.

I aint going to bet on this one, Arsenal are playing the better football and our in better form but United have an edge over Arsenal and its a long time since Arsenal beat them in a competitive match.

[zonker84]

You have to remember that the referee has not helped Arsenal much in recent games against Manchester United. Not only the ridiculous Rooney penalty, but in the same game, don't forget Ferdinand hacked Ljungberg down when clean through and should've been sent off, and also that disgraceful attack on Cole by van Nistelrooy, which he got away with at the time, but got a 3-match ban afterwards.

Even in the 4-2 at Highbury, Pires was denied a blatant penalty in the first-half, which could've put Arsenal 3-1 up at HT, and made it a totally different game.

Arsenal also battered Man Utd in the semi-final last year, but missed chances, and were denied 2 pretty clear penalty decisions as well.


If the referee is fair this time, Arsenal should come out on top you'd think. Not having Henry is a blow clearly, but then Man Utd may be without Heinze, which would probably lead to Mr Error Prone himself, Wes Brown, playing in the centre of their defence.

Perfectly possible it could be a draw, but Arsenal on the level ball Asian should be a good bet

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

I think Man Utd will win but what do people think of the bookings market?? Rob Stiles has refereed 39 matches this season and has dished out 119 yellow cards and 8(i think it was) red cards. And with a game, especially with this lot, it looks like it could get heated and maybe a safer bet than doing the match itself.

[stevenc1]

Will be considering Man Utd to win this one.

For me, the league was lost ages ago & recent Man U results/performances perhaps reflected this.

Imo, Man U are a big game team & have plenty of potential matchwiners in their lineup.

Also have the uperhand over Arsenal this season & the 4-2 demolition at Highbury will not have been forgotten & may play on the minds of the Arsenal players.

Taking into account no Henry & recent Cole publicity I'll be going for Man U over 90 mins. on the exchanges

[all_funkt_up]

I never know whether refs will play it by the book - or make allowances for the fact that its a big game. There could be red cards easily on sat - but its whether the ref will ignore dodgy challenges in order to 'let the game flow'. We have all seen blatant bookable offences ignored - which incidentally does my head in. A booking is a booking whether in the 1st or 91st minute of a game.... arrr

[tdp2505]

Hello and welcome to TDP Steven. feel free to browse at your leisure.