F A Cup Final

[crowie]

To be honest its a game that I have mixed feelings about. One one hand Arsenal have been superb since the Man Utd defeat in February (last game of the season apart) and on that form would come into the game as worthy favourites. Man Utd form in the same period has been hit and miss.

On the other hand bar a couple of Charity Shields Man Utd seem to have Arsenals measure in H2H's at the moment, dodgy decisions or not. To be honest I can't make a clear case for one team or the other so I am going to go with the RFO analysis for an "interest".

First off, last draw in 90 mins was in 1993 when Arsenal drew with Sheff Wed. RFO makes a case that despite everyone expecting a close tense game it usually ends up going one way or the other. Add in League Cup and Scottish Cup and League Cup and there have been 4 draws in these 40 finals over last 10 seasons.

The other trend highlighted by RFO is the amount of times a team wins to nil. Of the last 10 finals, only Liverpool 2 Arsenal 1 in 2001 saw one team not keep a blank sheet. And considering the way that game finished it was heading the same way as the trend for a long time.

In the same 10 year period Man Utd are the only side to have scored more than 2 in the final, and that was v Division 1 Millwall last season (3-0).

8 of the last 10 winners have won 1-0 or 2-0.

The team with the higher league position has won 8 of the last 10 finals, which would have generated a 6.2pts profit from 1pt per final staked.

With these stats in mind I will go for a bet I never normally do, correct scores.

3pts on Arsenal to win 1-0 at 9.0
2pts on Arsenal to win 2-0 at 15.0

Both with Betfair.

[GETT1NLOTS]

I still fancy Arsenal to take the spoils, even without Henry. Whilst he is a superb player (no doubt) he often under performs as much as over performs in the big games. I remember that Liverpool only won the FA Cup (last time round) because Henry missed a host of good chances. What I'm trying to say is that Arsenal have enough in Reyes, Berkamp and Lundberg to score the goals they need without Henry.

A bigger loss on the injury front is to Man Utd. I have heard reports that Heinz is out. I remember him being awesome in a game between these two earlier this season. He will be a big loss to them in my opinion.

Arsenal for me.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Just read your post Crowie. Interesting stats.

Even though you make a compelling case (for the team I fancy to win) I can't back on the score of a game. It's written in my book of rules.

[GETT1NLOTS]

8/10 finals been 1-0 or 2-0 eh?

You can get 1.65 under 2.5 goals on Bet365, if you think that those odds represent value (which mathematically they do).

[Parahandy]

I think this is very hard to call. Arsenal are the form team but Utd have done well against them in recent matches which I feel counts for something. Though cup finals are normally not packed with goals, a lot of the best players on the pitch tomorrow come into their own in the opposition half of the pitch. Rooney was born for this type of stage and RVN must be a big danger too. Arsenal's threat is more widespread. I'm tempted to have a small interest on Over 2.5 goals.

I really enjoy watching the big matches down south and I'm looking forward to a bit of blood and thunder here.

[christianu]

I see where your coming from Crowie but of course those stats may not be representative in this case.

If you look at recent finals, then you can see why so many teams have kept clean sheets. For example:

Man United vs Milwall
Arsenal vs Southampton

Theres a massive gulf in class in these matches, i cant remember many other finals but one which was close in terms in class, Arsenal vs Liverpool ended 2-1.

For once we have a final between two top class sides instead of a class side against a good/avreage/poor side. Im not ruling out a low scoring 1-0, 2-0 but i wouldnt take to much notice of those stats.

I think Arsenal will win but i cant see any value in the odds so im not going to bother betting on it. Ill just sit back and enjoy this one.

[CJ Mars]

Crowie posted some stats from the RFO. Two interesting ones that he didn't mention were firstly that favorite had won 9 from 10 times (although there were admittedly a lot of mismatches). The second interesting stat (that really surprised me) was that Arsenal and United have been the second and third most disciplined teams in the League this season both with card make ups (yellow 10 , red twenty) less than 20 which would make me think twice about going high on any bookings market despite the presence of card happy ref and the famous animosity between the two clubs.

Other than that it has to be Arsenal for me. United have looked very flat for the last few games. Keane has had the worst season of his career and can't cut it at the VERY highest level any longer in my view. RVN has stuttered since he came back from injury and I wouldn't be surprised if he left during the summer. If Heinze doesn't start its a huge blow for the defence. This has to be the best opportunity Arsenal have had in recent time to reverse the poor record against United. The defence looks solid and the goals are coming from most parts of the field at the moment. The trends like Crowie says are with Arsenal.

I've gone with Arsenal at 2.7 ( a drifting price on Betfair)

[GETT1NLOTS]

From the BBC Website


Arsenal's young Swiss defender Philippe Senderos is set to be preferred to England international Sol Campbell in the FA Cup final (kick off 1500 BST).


The Gunners are without Thierry Henry with an Achilles tendon injury but Freddie Ljungberg has been passed fit.

Manchester United's Gary Neville looks set to recover from the groin injury that threatened to rule him out.

Neville had been virtually ruled out earlier in the week but trained on Friday and is now expected to start.

---

Arsenal (from): Lehmann, Almunia, Lauren, Cole, Campbell, Senderos, Toure, Cygan, Vieira, Gilberto Silva, Edu, Fabregas, Flamini, Pires, Ljungberg, Reyes, Van Persie, Bergkamp, Aliadiere.
Manchester United (from): Carroll, Howard, G Neville, P Neville, Ferdinand, Brown, Silvestre, O'Shea, Fletcher, Fortune, Ronaldo, Kleberson, Keane, Scholes, Giggs, Miller, Van Nistelrooy, Smith, Rooney, Saha.

---

[Winrew]

Im a big fan of Senderos,he,s had a cracking season.
Im gonna go for a Arsenal win,i think Utd have looked jaded for the last 6 weeks or so.

Looking for a big game from Bergkamp.
10 / 1 on Dennis picking up the man of the match award.

[Jay]

Like the look of Arsenal myself today, very tough to call but can see Viera & Gilberto winning the midfield battle against a Keane who is well past his best imo.

If Arsenal can play their devastating passing game then they should edge this, all is not well in the Man U camp as we all know & although there will be a lot of pride out on the pitch I just feel that Man U are not the strength they once were..

Even with Henry out, Arsenal have a plethora of attacking players who can score...& if Reyes can avoid getting kicked off the pitch he could make the difference...

Man U cannot be totally ruled out though, they of course also have some fantastic attacking youngsters & if the shaky Arsenal defence are not on their game today it could cost them..However even with that I fancy an Arsenal win in a low scoring game & will be having a small punt on them at BF

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

All the best lads but im going to be going against everyone is seems :yikes

I fancy Man Utd for several reasons. No henry OR Campbell is a massive loss and while Senderos is a decent player i think he isnt in the same class just yet.
The h2h's have gone Man Utds way so far and Man Utd have really impressed me in both their games against the Gunners this season and i fancy this trend to continue.

Van Nistelrooy finally got a goal last week and this will do him good and i fancy him to score again today. I also back up what Christianu mentioned with the quality of teams etc affecting the over. I fancy the over also in this.

[A.M.P]

I've gone for a silly "novelty" bet and taken the 10/11 @ Bet Direct for one of the BBC commentators to say the word "unbelievable" before the 32nd minute.

In a game of two halves football folk haven't been known for their expansive vocabularies. Still, I'd be sick as a parrot if I didn't get a result today.

I wonder how the odds compilers go about pricing this one up. The possibilities for slipping in this adjective are unbelievable (bad refereeing decision, touch of skill, bad tackle, etc,etc). The Glazier bet to be in the stands I can see the reasoning behind as he's meant to be in America.

The BBC's commentary team today is Motson and Lawrenson. I'll be watching it on some dodgy foreign channel though. :frown2:

Good Luck All,

AMP

[christianu]

you crzy bastard AMP. Massive value at 10/11

[FatMunkey]

Brilliant spot AMP Can't seem to find it

OK - I'm on as well. Good luck to us

I hope arsenal win - I predict arsenal to win 1-0 with bergkamp scoring. I like bergkamp.