League Two Preview

[ThunderCelt]

I've been consolidating my L2 notes into a short prieview of each team. I hope it's okay if I post it, mainly because it would be good for the other L2 punters to point out where I've got it wrong.

Actually, one thing doing this has shown is how many uncertainties there are over several clubs still, so much is still guesswork. In particular it’s difficult to rank the mid table sides, and most of those I’ve put around the half way point could trouble either end of the table if they have a good or bad run or with an astute loan here or there. And of course the transfer window is open for another month. I’m also hedging my bets for a while; I’ve played a few small opening gambits but I’ll expect to get more heavily involved as the season progresses. The bookies often underestimate small clubs who are bubbling up – Dagenham (who I took) and Accrington (who I didn’t) were both very attractive prices to make the play-offs in the last couple of seasons, for example.

Promotion Places


1. Crawley Town. Nothing surprising here; Crawley have massive funds for this level so can buy their way to the title if they want to. I’m surprised they haven’t strengthened more spectacularly but they clearly feel the squad that came up last year was good enough. There is a big leap from the Conference to the top few places in L2, but in Crawley’s case I think I’d agree. They could be in trouble if the money dries up and for that reason I’ll hold off the 8/11 for promotion for now – but I wish I’d lumped on when they were 11/8 when the odds first came out!

2. Bristol Rovers. Grabbing players like Scott Bevan, Adam Virgo and Matt Harrold shows their clout and intent. The squad has had an overhaul during the summer although some of the better players from last season’s squad remain. Critically at this level, they seem to have strength in depth. I also rate Paul Buckle as a manager. I still reckon the 5/2 I'm on for them to be promoted is value.

3. Oxford United. I don’t think there is a standout for the third automatic place, so I’ve chosen almost at random from teams likely to be in the chasing pack. They’ve made some decent signings and are still looking for more, to add to an already competent squad that includes players such as James Constable. Vic Chandler offer 11/10 on Oxford being top commuter belt side (with Northampton and Barnet) and I think it’s just about takeable – but I’m not with VC.

My guesses for the promotion places to follow.

[ThunderCelt]

Play-offs

4. Shrewsbury Town. The Shrews were (my) favourites to win the play-offs last year, and have added players such as Reuben Hazell, Terry Gornell and Marvin Morgan to their ranks. I’ve watched Morgan play regularly for Aldershot, and I think he’ll do exceptionally well in a better team. They’ve lost Matt Harrold and (to my surprise) released ex-Aldershot loanee Jake Robinson. Shrews fans (on Shrewsweb) seem worried about central midfield and it’s difficult to see the team as stronger than last season. They should still make the play-offs, though. Vic Chandler have the Shrews as top Midland club at 13/8 (with Port Vale, Crewe and Hereford). I can only see Prot Vale anywhere near troubling them, so this looks a decent bet – but I’m not with VC.

5. Northampton Town. A slight risk placing thism this high as apart from attackers their signings have been quantity rather than proven quality, but getting Gary Johnson as manager is a coup for any club at this level. The new strike force will mix Jake Robinson, Shaun Harrad and Adebeyo Akinfwewa, and it’s not difficult to see these three firing the Cobbers to the play-offs, particularly as the rest of the squad looks pretty solid – if unspectacular. I have a unit at 4/5 for them to finish above Dagenham (William Hill).

6. Swindon Town. The team needed rebuilding after relegation, and hiring Di Canio as manager is a brave move. The singing of Alan Connell for a ‘six figure sum’ shows financial clout, but to be honest they’ve signed players from clubs all over Europe I’ve never heard of, so it’s hard to judge how good the team will be. Supporters in the office (I live in Swindon) seem upbeat and have researched the newcomers more than I have and assure me there’s class there! Given the willingness to spend money I have to assume they’ll do well, but giving them a position is largely guesswork at this stage. Several bookies are offering offs on the top south west club – I’m sure it’ll be either Swindon or Bristol, and both are comfortably above evens. A bet on both will net a profit, then (assuming I’m right, of course…).

7. Gillingham. Gillingham’s credentials have already been discussed (on the missing L2 antepost thread). Personally, despite Birchill’s injury I reckon they’ll push on from last season’s good run in. I can’t better HastGill11’s eloquent assessment of their chances (or Frodo’s less optimistic view) and I think they’ll make the play-offs.

The bookies largely have the same top seven as me so I’m finding it difficult to find value at the promotion end of the table at this stage.

[ThunderCelt]

Upper mid-table

8. Rotherham United. Rotherham have easily the best player I’ve seen at this level since Aldershot rejoined the league in Adam le Fondre and normally I’d suggest he’d propel the Millers to promotion on his own. However, the last couple of seasons haven’t quite worked out like that, and he now wants away and I wonder if Rotherham would rather cash in on an offer than lose him for free (I think his contract ends next summer, and rumour is that some clubs are close to matching the £250k valuation). The loss of midfielder Nicky Law to Motherwell will also be a blow. Add to that some (alledged) personnel problems in the ranks and I think this might be a difficult year. Their signings look solid and the squad has some depth, but unless le Fondre is able to recapture his form from early last season and stay injury free, I think they’ll just miss out. Both Blue Square and 888 have Rotherham 11/8 to be the top northern club (with Bradford, Accrington, Morecambe and Macclesfield) which looks value if you think they can hang on to La Fondre.

9. Southend United. I think it’ll be another mid-table year for Southend. Finances (I think) prevented the signing of Rohan Ricketts, while several of their recruits have been released from other League Two sides which I always see as a sign of mid-or lower table potential. The signing of Neil Harris originally excited me, but his age and more recent injury record will be a worry. However, Southend finished last season well and should better last season’s 13th place.

10. Port Vale. Vale started exceptionally well last year, before Micky Adams left and the squad imploded. Adams has returned, but the league is stronger this season, while Vale don’t seem to have upped their squad and the sale of Justin Richards will weaken them. They still have Marc Richards up front though, and if Adams can restore some of last year’s spirit they may just be an outside punt for the play-offs – but not at the 11/2 for promotion currently available. Betfred gives Vale 5/2 to finish got of a mini-group with Plymouth, Southend (11/2) and Wimbledon, and a bet on either Vale or Southend might be value.

11. Aldershot Town. Initially I thought we’d have a very good season, but looking at other sides I’ve placed above us it’s difficult to see who we’d displace. We’ve got a talented midfield but probably lack a twenty-goal striker (but I do hope one of the emerging youngsters or one of our non-league signings can prove me wrong and step up to the task). We look a little light of cover in defence and a long-term injury to skipper Anthony Charles is a blow (although in fairness he was out of contract at the end of last season so there’s no guarantee he’d still be with us anyway). I’ve got a couple of units with Hills for us to finish higher than Accringon at 5/6.

12. Bradford City. Bradford have signed a few players, and released a few players. Bradford’s forum doesn’t seem to be able to find much to get excited about. I can’t either, so I’ll keep this short and predict mid-table again.

[ThunderCelt]

Lower mid-table

13. Torquay United. Torquay had a good start last season, but tailed off and eventually had to settle for the play-offs. The team ‘evolved’ over the second hald of the season, and since January Wroe, Benyon, Bevan, Branston, Zebroski etc all left for bigger clubs. Their replacement are less proven, and of course they lost their manager to Bristol Rovers, which I think will be a big blow.

14. AFC Wimbledon. I’m delighted for the Wombles, and particularly for ex-Aldershot boss Terry Brown who has to be one of the nicest managers in football and I’d have loved him to have got into the league with us. Momentum should carry them through, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes them above my 14th place predicted finish. They’ve lost Danny Kedwell to Gillingham, which their supporters seem to think will be a blow, but players like Luke Moore, Christian Jolley and in particular Brett Johnson (who looked an exceptional talent as a youngster with Aldershot) should be good enough to step up. Wimbledon seem to have been outplayed by Crawley in the League Cup last week, which may indicate that they’re not good enough to challenge at the top.

15. Dagenham and Redbridge. It’s difficult to judge how a low0budget relegated team will do. I suspect they’ll need a season to consolidate, but in fairness I might be wrong as their message board seems to think they’ll make the play-offs. I don’t know much about their players, but looking at their ins and outs I’d guess they’re a little lighter than when they were last in this league. In John Sill they have a highly respected manager who knows the club inside out.

16. Plymouth Argyle. Plymouth face a difficult season, and at the moment seem to have a very young and threadbare squad. Their financial problems have been well documented, and most of their players have disappeared over the last few months. I’ve put a unit on them to go down at 10/1 as this will probably be value if they don’t resolve their problems. However, their future is still far from certain and if they come out of administration I assume the money will be there to get in enough players to climb up the league. So, at the moment they look in trouble, but the situation could change and their final position is complete guesswork!

17. Crewe Alexandra. The Alex are another side with money problems. Apparently they released all their triallists and have just kept on contracted players and youngsters. Clayton Donaldson has moved on to Brentford, taking his 28 goals last season with him, and it’s difficult to see how he’s been replaced. However, Dario Gradi – and Crewe in general – are one of the best developers of youngsters in the country, so I’d have some confidence they won’t be in trouble at this stage – but I’ll be keeping a watching brief. Over the course of a season the stresses on a small squad might show – but that’s not going to be an unusual problem in this league this season.

[ThunderCelt]

Avoiding relegation

18. Accrington Stanley. Accy reached the play-offs last year following an impressive end of season run. Of the ‘star’ players who helped get them there, only Ian Craney remains. Danny Coid will be a useful signing, and on paper their first eleven looks okay. However, the squad looks particularly threadbare – Wikipedia lists fifteen, plus a couple more who arrived a few days ago – and there have to be question marks about whether that’s enough depth to get them through the season. Of course, there is time to sign more, but I read somewhere that Accy have the league’s smallest budget so funds may be a problem. However, I do rate John Colemen as a manager and I think he’s astute enough to keep them safe. I have a unit on Aldershot finishing above Accy so I hope my analysis is right!

19. Burton Albion. Burton fiddled around the bottom halt last year. Transfer dealings seem to have been quiet, but I think Justin Richards and Calvin Zola will just about have the goals to keep them out of serious trouble with the rest of the squad looking just about adequate.

20. Barnet. Barnet have struggled for the last couple of years and pulled away spectacularly last season (I had a hefty punt on them to go down at a decent price last January and am thankful for a last day saving bet on Lincoln to return a lucky profit). They seem to have kept much of their end of season squad together (although losing Devera to Swindon looks a blow), and while I’m not familiar with a lot of their players, on paper they seem to be good enough. Just.

21. Morecambe. I may be being a little hard on Morecambe because their message board seems quite upbeat about their chances, but on paper I’m less convinced. They’ve probably been slightly better in the quality of their signings than some other sides I’ve put neat the bottom, and Kevin Ellison (from Rotherham) should do well, and quite a bit sems to be expected of Izak reid from Macclesfield. They’ll be heavily reliant on the presence of player-manager Jim Bentley though.

22. Hereford United. Punter has already made a good case for the Bulls struggling and I agree. They lost highly rated youngster Mathieu Manset to reading in January and it’s hard to see his replacement topping the scoring charts, and Hereford may find themselves in real trouble if Stuart Fleetwood (14 goals last season) is injured or sold.

[ThunderCelt]

Relegation places

23. Macclesfield Town. Macclesfield avoided the drop (semi) comfortably last season, but I can see them failing this time. The squad is made up largely of players who have been released from other clubs, sometimes at L2 level or who are unproven. The squad seems to be big enough, I just can’t see enough quality. The loss of Tyrone Barnett’s thirteen goals to Crawley may end up being significant. I’ve had a unit on them at 10/3.

24. Cheltenham Town. Cheltenham have started well for the last couple of seasons, and then imploded. I’ve seen Aldershot win at Cheltenham in the last two season, and both times they’ve been the worst I’ve seen that season. The loss of Wes Thomas will be a blow, and I reckon they could start only averagely before imploding this time. Their message board applauds the board for keeping within a budget, but recognises that’ll have consequences on the field. Their manager also seems to be under pressure, which could add to the…er…pressure. The squad movement overall doesn’t seem to have done much to strengthen the team, and they look slightly light in terms of numbers, too. I was pleased to get on them at 3/1 to go down, but they’ve now lengthened a bit – possibly due to the bookies thinking that there are a lot of ‘have nots’ in the league this year. I’d agree.

[Punter]

An Excellent preview Thunder'

Good luck!

[traeth]

Originally Posted by Punter

An Excellent preview Thunder'

Good luck!

I'll second that , thanks thunder

[Rob44]

I'm on Bristol for promotion and cheltenham for relegation based on the previous thread. i'll have a look at some others based on this - thanks TC

[yorkieacermark2000]

Good write ups i believe as ive said all along Crawley wont win the title but will get up to league 1 with Bristol Rovers taking the title, I have to disagree with your pick of Crewe to be 17th i believe top 10 for them but thats just my opinon