Promoted Teams

[Rob44]

last year i took all the teams promoted to the premiership to win their first home games of the season and made a bit of a profit. although i hadn't studied it in any depth it was my perception that promoted teams to the premiership usually have a great performance in their first game at home... they are in effect up for it.

does anyone know if this is an actual trend? and if it is, is it true in the lower leagues as well?

btw the promoted team's first home prem fixtures this year are:

Norwich v Stoke
QPR v Bolton
Sw3ansea v Wigan

i feel these are all winnable matches for the home teams

[Rob44]

the odds for those 3

Norwich 2.4
QPR 2.5
Swansea 2.4

[diamondlife]

I've made some studies on this. I dont have the numbers on this computer but i might be able to share tomorrow.

[hotspur]

certainly helps if they are playing at home to stoke,bolton and wigan!!!

[hotspur]

Rob,what intrigues me about this theory of yours is what happens in their SECOND home game-having won the first!?
Are you saying that one should NOT back the promoted teams at home in subsequent games?
As they wont be as "up for it".
What if they have lost the first home game,should you then back them for the second home game as they will be desperate to make ammends?
Surely,all you are really saying is that there may well be value in backing newly promoted teams early in the season due to the fact/probability that most punters are underestimating them...?

[hotspur]

with the exception of Crawley,natch

[jeezoz]

Swansea didn't look like what they were in ELC. Fitness level seems weak to Premier standard

[Rob44]

hi hotspur, i haven't looked beyond the opening game. and i wouldn't bet blindly on all opening games either. i was dissappointed by the qpr result as it wasn't just the fact of their promotion that made it look good, but also bolton's really dodgy away record for last season. i would generally wait on promoted teams to see how they settle in before deciding. some can become worth looking at as consistent home performers with value e.g. sunderland, stoke. others are annoyingly inconsistent - my team, the toon!