CC League Two: 08/09 Ante Post

[Frodo]

Quite a few handicaps out. Stan James, Ladbrokes, Betfred and couple of others.

2 that catch the eye.

Lincoln - (+15) - With Betfred, +8 elsewhere.
Luton - (+54) - With Ladrokes, + 40 elsewhere

The Luton price has already been cut but if you fancy them to stay up then it's still decent value if you go e/w. They've added Kevin Nicholls who they sold for a few quid to Leeds before suffering a horrible injury and never being able to regain his place. Could be a very shrewd move.

[Punter]

Thanks Frodo.

I'd been considering Bury with some sort of bet too. I think they can have a better season this time round. The signing of a fantastic goalkeeper has prompted a little bit of interest, Wayne Brown, known to all Hereford fans as Superman.

He was fantastic in goal for us, a couple of last minute penalty saves, several last 5 minute match winning saves, brilliant. We offered him a new contract but he surprisingly turned it down for personal reasons, he's opted to stay in league two with Bury. He was crowned Herefords player of the season last term too.

I believe Bishop and Hurst are decent enough strikers and there's been talk that local lad Michael Twiss may possibly join them from Morecambe. I've always liked Twiss from when we were in the conference, i always thought he should of played at a slightly higher level. At only 30 i would imagine he's still got it, he'd be saving daily motorway journeys with the move too, though wether the signing will happen remains to be seen.

Just a hunch the Bury will have their best season in a while though probably not good enough for automatic promotion. I was interested in the handicap at first with +21 @ 18/1 Betfred but now i'm pondering Top North West club @ 7/2

Bluesq odds
Rochdale 8/13
Bury 7/2
Morcambe 4/1
Acc Stanley 9/1

Rochdale had a superb 2nd half of the season last time but can they do it again? Possibly.

I've staked nothing yet but i think i'll give it another 2 or 3 days before taking a final look.

[Frodo]

That Bury bet caught my eye too Kop, as it's effectively 7/2 on them beating Rochdale. However although they're not quite as good on paper as they were I can still see Rochdale getting in the playoffs again, it may be asking a bit much of Bury. The price is definitely value but I may end up more committed elsewhere. Also the +21 on the handicap is one of the one's I have down as a possible threat to Lincoln, but then I have Rochdale as a threat too and they're +9.

In the group betting I do like Shrewsbury at 2.2 to finish ahead of Port Vale, Notts County, Macc and Chester. Port Vale's squad looks a bit weak and I'd have Notts down as the threat if Jamie Forrester can be the goalscorer they so badly need.

[jbgb007uk]

Guys, let me ask you one question

Out of all the league 2 strikeforces do you see one with as much class as Jack Lester and Jamie Ward? Do you see a team with a solid centreback duo better than Robert Page and Aaron Downes? Do you see a team with a creative midfielder with the class of Darren Currie?

GET ON CHESTERFIELD @ 12/1
Jack Lester top scorer @ 14/1
Promotion @ 3/1

[Punter]

I was on J.Lester @ 50/1 e.w last season jb, he got me some decent place money. I was also on Chesterfield, going well for most of the season then slipping out of the play offs. What went wrong?

Frighteningly tough to pick a winner at the moment, the league looks very tight. Shrewsbury, Darlo, Lincoln and Bury are the sides currently on my shortlist, though that shortlist seems to change on a weekly basis.

I agree Frodo, as tough as i've ever seen it i think. I've got Shrewsbury and Darlo down at the mo but i may end up not bothering until a couple of weeks into the season.

[rcgills]

No-one fancy Gillingham then?

Nope, me neither

[jbgb007uk]

Kop last season we had issues with defence/goalkeeper whereby we always conceded, mainly sloppy goals, when we were in control of games. This should have been sorted with Robert Page, Tommy Lee, Kevin Austin and Goodall coming in at the back. We also lacked competition in midfield, so we now have Paul Harsley, Lloyd Kerry battling with Niven and Winter for central midfield positions.

We apparently are going to get major cash input from Mr Allen (of Sheffield Wednesday fame) when he finally sells Wednesday, as we look to build a ground and get a league 1 standard team.

Lincoln and Bury should both do well, the former however never live up to expectations whilst the latter still lack strike power.

For me Bradford look a big danger, if they gel together they will be tough to beat, they deserve promotion again.

[bromsgrovegreen]

hi frodo and kop,i thought darlo had a budget issue and lost some players from last season? obviously not if you two are on them! shrews at 20-1 was value for me, also heard good reports about lincoln and bradford,jbgb also seems pretty confident

[Punter]

Hi Broms, good luck for the season.

I'm not on Darlo, i'm not on anything just yet as i'm really behind with my studying so far, i havent put as much time and effort pre season as i did last, poker and horses have got in the way a bit. As already mentioned though this looks tough. I like Shrews' but i didn't know about any budget issues with Darlo so that's another i'll push to one side for now.

I think Gillingham could do it Rc, not an attractive price though and i think it's only that that's put me off.

Good luck with Barnet and Chesterfield, Frodo and Jb. I'm going to be backing in this league again this season but i'm not confident about any ante post bet yet and might just leave it to the fixtures. Still time for something yet maybe.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Kop66

I think Gillingham could do it Rc, not an attractive price though and i think it's only that that's put me off.

You're right about the price, Kop, 10/1 or thereabouts is certainly not very appealing. Last time we were in this division we were 50/1, I remember because I had a fiver on us (win only unfortunately, not each way). Ended up finishing 3pts behind Preston, after conceding only 20 goals all season under Tony Pulis. Those were the days

The quality of League One last season was piss poor (and yes, I know, if the Gills got relegated that makes us one of the poorest of the lot), but assuming this division is even poorer, we'll stand a chance. We've kept last season's team intact - Royce, King and Crofts all could have gone at the very least to League One, the latter two arguably to the Championship, but they've stayed with us. Mark McCammon turned down a year's contract at Doncaster in favour of a 3 year deal with us, which suggests one of two things. Either he's one of those players who just wants first team football rather than sitting in the reserves (as he presumably would at Doncaster now they've gone up, although he was a first team regular in League One) at a higher team. Or he's attracted by the thought of a 3 year contract meaning he can get into a comfort zone and do fuck all for the next couple of years, safe in the knowledge he's got a long-term deal . Not a prolific scorer, but if he can strike up a decent little and large type partnership with Simeon Jackson up front we could go OK.

Our problem though is our lack of strength in depth. I think our first choice 11 is a decent match for any team in this division, unfortunately many of our reserves probably aren't, and so I'd say avoiding too many injuries and suspensions is going to be the key to our season. Unfortunately avoiding injuries and suspensions has never really been our strong point .

[rcgills]

The Guardian's preview, and they fancy Gillingham's chances :

Life in the bottom tier is seldom straightforward. There's barely a club not entering the new season in a state of tumult. For many it's been a close season of cost-cutting, for some a battle to hold on to their better players or cobble together a squad of professionals. Not for the first time, a hint of stability and a couple of quid in the bank may be all that is required for a tilt at the top.
Shrewsbury are in a better position than most, though their hopes rest on turning back the clock. Will Grant Holt be the lethal striker he was for Rochdale in 2004 and 2005 or the man who scored just three times for a strong Nottingham Forest side last season? Will Paul Simpson be the managerial magician who guided his Carlisle side to the League Two title in 2006 or the curmudgeon who failed so miserably at Preston? Will Richard Walker be the awkward customer who scored and created so many goals for Bristol Rovers at this level in 2006-07 or the toothless striker who has failed to find the net so far this year?
If the Shrews can get positive answers to those questions it's tough to see anyone with a better chance of taking the title. Walker and Holt will be key and despite difficult times of late, they do have excellent records at this level. After replacing Gary Peters in March, Simpson won only one of the 11 games for which he was in charge last season, but his arrival in itself bodes well for the club. As Milton Keynes and Peterborough showed last season, money talks in League Two as much as it does in the leagues above. Shrewsbury, who broke their transfer record by splashing £170,000 on Holt, are clearly in a more robust state than many of their rivals.
Bradford, on the other hand, don't have much in the bank - a total of £11,383 according to recently released accounts - despite their big crowds (down largely to their commendable season ticket pricing). Michael Boulding will score plenty and new signing Paul McLaren created more goals in League One last season than anyone else, but it's hard to shake the feeling that they're the bookies favourites on the back of those attendances rather than their talent on the pitch. They'll need a big improvement on last season to justify the expectation and it's a make-or-break season for Stuart McCall, with whom fans' patience is being tested, despite his legendary status at Valley Parade.
Rochdale showed remarkable resilience last time out - recovering from the loss of Glenn Murray and Chris Dagnall, the side's chief sources of goals, to Brighton and injury respectively - to make the play-off final. Their manager Keith Hill will be hoping Jon Shaw, prolific in the Conference with Halifax, does for his side what Aaron Mclean did for Peterborough and that Dagnall, who weighed in with nine goals last year despite missing six months of the season, can recapture his best form. The loss of David Perkins, however, deprives Dale of energy in midfield and it may well mean just another play-off campaign for the club stuck in the fourth tier since 1974.
Of the sides dropping down from League One, Gillingham are the strongest and are sure to be there or thereabouts. The spine of the side - Simon Royce in goal, Simon King at centre-half, Andrew Crofts in midfield and Simeon Jackson up front - is arguably the best in the division. Royce was the club's player of the year last season, King has been watched by Championship scouts, Crofts is a Welsh international and a largely unsung hero in the Gills engine room, while Jackson, another prolific Conference goalscorer, will benefit from the company of Mark McCammon - not prolific himself, but a creator for others - alongside him. The jury is very much out on the management of the former Stevenage boss Mark Stimson, however.
Elsewhere, Darlington - despite tailing off terribly in the second half of last season - should also be among the contenders after four back-to-back top-half finishes, but they'll need Pawel Abbott to shake off the fitness problems that have dogged him of late. Peter Taylor's Wycombe, who in Scott McGleish and Leon Knight have a front two as capable as any in the division, should make the play-offs for the third time in four years. Chesterfield should again go close - I like the look of their back five, and in Jamie Ward and Jack Lester they have a strike pair to rival McGleish and Knight. There are gaps - particularly in midfield - but the Spireites manager Lee Richardson will hope to plug those with loans.
As will everyone else. The season's ups and downs could well hinge on which players teams are able to get in on a temporary basis. To that end a solid start is essential - it's easier to sell a play-off push to the loaning clubs than it is a battle at the very basement of the Football League.
That leaves Luton, Rotherham and Bournemouth, Gillingham's fellow relegatees, in a difficult position. The Hatters begin at -30, the Millers are likely to kick off with -20, and the Cherries will probably start at -15, which is tremendous news for the likes of Chester, Notts County, Dagenham and the other likely stragglers.
At the time of writing Luton are 7-2 on to slip into the Conference, and the perceived wisdom seems to be that they'll need an exceptional, possibly title-winning, season to survive. But things aren't quite that dire - last season 73 points in League Two would have seen them safe, a tally that, without a 30-point penalty, would have been good enough for eighth. It's not an impossibility therefore, but nevertheless, with the club haemorrhaging players at an alarming rate, there's little reason for optimism.
And it's difficult to see Rotherham not joining Luton in the Conference in 2009-10. The Millers will play their home games at Don Valley Stadium in Sheffield (for an idea of how the club got into this mess have a look at David Conn's report), which can't be a good thing (think Brighton and the Withdean) and although they've been able to bring in one-time next-big-thing Mark Burchill from Dunfermline, the squad is egg-shell thin. Bournemouth, who had that remarkable run at the end of last season which almost kept them in League One, look stronger, and the effect of the points penalty on Kevin Bond's team should be eased by the severity of the other two - if they can stay afloat that is, as the Football League is threatening to block both Rotherham and Bournemouth's participation in League Two over the timetable of takeovers.
With finances so fragile, the threat remains that one or more League Two sides won't make the end of the season. Aldershot are a club that know all about that, their original guise folding in the spring of 1992. But 16 years after forming Aldershot Town from the charred remains of Aldershot FC, the Shots are back in the Football League. And they should fare well. No side has dominated the Conference or Blue Square Premier in the way Gary Waddock's side did last season since Yeovil romped to promotion in 2002-03. A play-off punt is a realistic objective. For Exeter, the other promoted side, consolidation will be the aim, a target that looks much more achievable with their headstart over Luton and co.
And finally, if you're looking for a potential surprise package, look no further than Lincoln City, who improved more than any other League Two club in the second half of last season and strengthened during the summer. They could well clamber over Brentford, Barnet, Morecambe and co in the mid-table morass and if they can sort out the red tape tying up naked-girlfriend-carrying Romanian striker Adrian Patulea, they might be able to bring some light relief to a division where tensions are sure to be running high.
Predictions:
Champions: Shrewsbury
Promoted: Gillingham and Chesterfield
Play-offs: Rochdale, Aldershot, Wycombe, Lincoln
Relegated: Luton and Rotherham

League Two preview: big-spending Shrews in line for promotion bid | Sport | guardian.co.uk

[Frodo]

Kop, thanks for your wishes, hope you enjoy league 2, remember who beat Stockport to promote you.

I don't blame you for keeping your powder dry with the ante-post stuff.

I'm not on Darlo sorry if I gave the impression. Darlo have cut their budget too, sales of some high earners, Joachim, Wright, Cummins & Wainwright and replacing them with 3 Stockport reserves. The addition of Clayton Fortune is a good one though. Some of the savings have also been off-field too and helped with the sale of Stockdale who started the season as thier number 2 keeper, 650k they got for him but won't be spending any of it.

They've managed to keep hold of Pawel Abbott and their superb defence. Although overall they're not as strong this year they're not much weaker. From an ante-post perspective for me there's no-one of the quality of Mk Dons and Posh this season to compete against and no stand out team which means I can't rule them out.

For me it's wide open so I'm happy with my Lincoln bets, they finished last season like a train, have improved IMO and have good youngsters to supplement the squad.

20/1 on Shrewsbury is an excellent bet Broms. Good work.

[SuperTyke]

Shrewsbury look to be a MAGNIFICENT bet at 20/1 - that must be lower now surely? They've drafted in 4 or 5 players who were playing in League One last year and I reckon they will get at least 2nd place in the coming season.

Chesterfield also look a great bet. Very strong attack, and have added a couple of solid players to the team, including Kevin Austin in defence.

If Luton can keep their side together, I'd expect them to beat the 30 points deficit and stave off relegation.

ST

[Punter]

remember who beat Stockport to promote you.

Welcome SuperTyke

[SuperTyke]

Originally Posted by Kop66

Welcome SuperTyke

Cheers matre

ST