11 May: English Premier

**kompressaur** · #1 (**permalink**) 05-05-2008, 09:28

15:00 Birmingham (5/6) Draw (9/4) Blackburn (11/4) 112%
15:00 Derby (7/2) Draw (12/5) Reading (4/6) 112%
15:00 Middlesbrough (10/11) Draw (9/4) Manchester City (5/2) 112%
15:00 Portsmouth (6/4) Draw (23/10) Fulham (7/5) 112%
15:00 Tottenham (5/4) Draw (9/4) Liverpool (7/4) 112%
15:00 Wigan (9) Draw (5) Manchester United (2/9) 109%
15:00 Chelsea (1/7) Draw (5) Bolton (12) 112%
15:00 Everton (4/6) Draw (12/5) Newcastle United (7/2) 112%
15:00 Sunderland (3) Draw (12/5) Arsenal (5/6) 109%
15:00 West Ham (9/5) Draw (9/4) Aston Villa (6/5) 112%

Cinny · #2 (**permalink**) 05-05-2008, 19:47

Am i mad or could this acually be the day derby get a win? Reading are terrible but maybe i have gone mad.

Fulham look a decent bet, their rejuvinated and pompey will certainly be looking to the fa cup final!

A nice price on Newcastle against an out of form Everton outfit.

Scottieboy08 · #3 (**permalink**) 05-05-2008, 20:12

I agree with Fulham winning down here, I can't see Harry fielding what he says will be a strong side. We just can't risk it imo. Liverpool look good at 7/4 although I was impressed with Spurs on Saturday (albeit vs a poor Reading side). The 9/5 on West Ham is good value, I think Villa have run out of gas for the campaign.

Not sure about Derby Cinny, I can't justify 7/2 being good enough. Newcastle are well priced, but for a good reason. Everton need a performance and I think they'll get it to secure 5th.

**slick** · #4 (**permalink**) 05-05-2008, 20:58

Agree with Liverpool, nowt to play for but they still seem intent on playing good football, Spurs will also want a result in there last game of the season at home so it should be a nice open match with goals a plenty.

I'm also going with Everton and Villa as they are still fighting for that UEFA spot, blip for both sides over the weekend but they are more than capable here of beating thier respective opponents.

Quandram · #5 (**permalink**) 07-05-2008, 06:06

Can't say i'm tempted by Everton @ under evens.

My early list includes
Villa - Should bounce back to do West Ham, particularly with the quality of the hammers defending of late.
Fulham - Playing well and have momentum with Pompey firmly looking elsewhere
Liverpool - Not playing as badly as Spurs and could be well worth a sniff at those odds
Blackburn - I don't care how much Birmingham need the pts they aren't playing well and Blackburn @ 3/1 is absolutely big enough for me to be interested.

**kompressaur** · #6 (**permalink**) 09-05-2008, 13:08

Quote:

Portsmouth v Fulham

Unbelievably, Premier League survival is in Fulham's hands. A few weeks ago they were written off and following the 3-1 home defeat to Sunderland, only a fool would have given them a chance of beating the drop. But, in true dramatic fashion, summed up by their stunning comeback against Manchester City two weeks ago where they came back from two down to win 3-2 with all their goals coming in the last 20 minutes, they are now just a final-day victory away from safety. They travel to Portsmouth on Sunday looking for a third successive away triumph and at 6/5 with Paddy Power that's where we're putting our money. Tipping Fulham to pick up three points away from home would have seemed ludicrous before their 2-0 win at Reading on April 12 - the first of a kind since September 2006 - but now they've well and truly overcome their jinx and we can't really expect Portsmouth to offer much serious opposition. Sure, we'll all be told Pompey players will have professional pride to play for and will also want to give their fans something to cheer in the final game at Fratton Park this season, but if we're being honest, there isn't any true motivation. With the FA Cup final absorbing all their focus and interest, the last thing anyone wants is an injury while they'll all want to stay as fresh as possible given their opponents Cardiff will enjoy an extra week of rest. Harry Redknapp has previously said he only cares now about the Cup final and his team have certainly backed that up with three defeats on the bounce and only one goal in the last four. In their previous two home games they drew 0-0 with Newcastle before a disappointing 1-0 loss to Blackburn and we're expecting a similar trend to continue on survival Sunday, with Fulham picking up the all-important win.

Verdict: Portsmouth 0 Fulham 2 (CH)

Birmingham v Blackburn

Birmingham look a side on the way out of the Premier League following a depressing run which has seen them take just two points from the last five crucial games to leave them second bottom, one point behind Reading and Fulham. Destiny is not in their own hands and to stand any chance of surviving they must beat Blackburn and hope Portsmouth and Derby get at least a draw in their respective games with the Cottagers and the Royals. It's certainly looking bleak and the failure to defeat Liverpool when 2-0 up at St Andrews two weeks ago has really hit them hard. Generally speaking at this time of year at the bottom of the table there are two types of teams - ones with momentum and ones who plummet like a stone and Birmingham fall into the latter category. Confidence is low and on Sunday they host a Blackburn side who are aiming to finish the season in sixth. Compared with other final day fixtures, this is far from easy. Birmingham have only won five games on their own patch this season and only two during this calendar year while Rovers have impressed away from home with seven wins, including a 1-0 triumph over Portsmouth on their last trip. Obviously Birmingham will be fired up in front of a passionate crowd as they fight for their lives but if they don't get the early goal and find out other results are going against them - as we expect to happen - then their drive and enthusiasm will no doubt be flattened, allowing the visitors to go for the kill as they target an Intertoto Cup spot. Overall we feel a Blackburn triumph is well worth a bet at 11/4 with Paddy Power and as a result Birmingham will be waving goodbye to the Promised Land.

Verdict: Birmingham 1 Blackburn 2 (CH)

Chelsea v Bolton

Only a freak pair of scorelines in this game and at Derby will threaten Bolton's safety althoughpessimistic Trotters fans will tell you that a 6-0 loss here and 5-0 win for Reading at Derby isn't impossible. Chelsea will certainly be going all out for the win as they need to better Manchester United's result at Wigan to snatch the title away from Sir Alex but, presuming that Avram Grant keeps his players informed (if he doesn't the crowd will), it will be difficult for Chelsea to stay motivated if news filters through that United are 3-0 up at the JJB. And that makes punting on this game tricky. If Chelsea simply had to outscore United to win the title, we'd take the Blues to rack up a heavy win. But they might want to stick rather than twist if getting 2-0 up while if United are cruising home the will to push on from a similar scoreline will diminish. In any case, Chelsea scoring four goals or more is only 9/4 and Bolton have only conceded once in the last four anyway. As far as the match market is concerned this is one to bet in-running rather than take a definite stance beforehand but we will make an anytime goalscorer play. Michael Ballack has really found his scoring touch of late with three goals in the last two Premier League games and, with confidence high, he's worth a punt at 11/4 with Hills to find the net again.

Verdict: Chelsea 2 Bolton 0 (DT)

Derby v Reading

Derby bring the curtain down on the worst Premier League season in history but will the game also spell curtains for Reading's survival hopes? And if that sounds like a clumsy and appalling piece of word play, it could well mirror the action on the pitch at Pride Park. Derby are quite clearly beyond hopeless and, in theory, this is an open goal for Reading as they seek the win that will give them a decent chance of survival. But the big problem for Reading is that they haven't scored in any of their last six Premier League games. That collective lack of confidence in front of goal could yet come back to haunt them and although Derby's comedy defensive unit will give the Royals plenty of opportunities, will they be able to take them? The longer the game stays 0-0, the more Reading's players will start snatching at their opportunities and backing the visitors at 8/13 is just not an option. Again, events elsewhere may affect how this game unfolds so, for several reasons, it doesn't look the greatest of games to bet on.

Verdict: Derby 1 Reading 1 (DT)

Everton v Newcastle

Everton will have half an eye on what Aston Villa are up to at West Ham but the bottom line for the Toffees is that a point will seal fifth place and UEFA Cup football next season. There's little doubt that David Moyes' men are running on empty - and also badly missing Tim Cahill and Mikel Arteta - but they are odds-on across the board to net the victory here. It will be fascinating to see how Newcastle's players and fans respond to Kevin Keegan's comments earlier this week about their prospects of making the big four because they are taking on a side in Everton which has come closest of all to breaking the monopoly. The Magpies were beaten 2-0 by Chelsea on Bank Holiday Monday but the performance itself was pretty decent and they should probably have been ahead at the break. That was actually their first defeat since the beginning of March and underlines that they are a far tougher proposition now than they have been for a while. They also beat Everton 3-2 at St James' earlier in the campaign when the Toffees were in the midst of a rare poor run - exactly as they are at present. Everton have managed just one win in eight - and that includes games against the likes of Fulham, Birmingham and Derby - so make limited appeal at 4/5, especially as they'll be perfectly happy with a draw. Indeed that outcome looks the obvious route from a bettingperspective at 5/2 given the relative form of the two sides.

Verdict: Everton 1 Newcastle 1 (JT)

Middlesbrough v Man City

This is about as dead rubber as they come with the now safe Middlesbrough hosting a Manchester City side floating calmly in upper mid-table security. Boro made sure of their place in next season's top flight with their 2-0 triumph at home to Portsmouth last week and now the club can breath a sigh of relief once and for all. Gareth Southgate's men have been extremely inconsistent this season and it's never easy to predict what they're going to deliver. On the one hand they've picked up draws at Arsenal and Spurs since the start of March while giving Manchester United a scare in April's 2-2 draw but they've also lost to Bolton and Sunderland in recent weeks. They're very hit and miss at the Riverside with six wins and seven defeats in the Premier League and on a good day they should beat City, who have lost eight on the road this campaign. If the visitors' lethargic performance at Liverpool is anything to go by, then we can expect their players to look as if they're already on their holidays. With Sven-Goran Eriksson widely expected to leave in the summer there is no incentive to impress him so weighing all the factors up we're going for a home win. For added value we're advising you to take Paddy Power's 13/5 about the hosts winning to nil.

Verdict: Middlesbrough 2 Man City 0 (CH)

Sunderland v Arsenal

Another match with precious little on the line although Sunderland will be aiming to end their season on a high in front of their own fans having successfully avoided relegation. Indeed it's their impressive form at the Stadium of Light which has ensured survival while their habit of fighting right until the end to grab late goals has earned them crucial points throughout the campaign. Roy Keane's men have won nine games at home in the league - only the top six and Man City can boast better records - but they have lost all seven matches against the 'Big Four' so far and have generally seemed fazed on these occasions. That said they put in a plucky display during the 3-2 defeat at Arsenal earlier this season and we think they can go one better and grind out a draw this time around. The Gunners have endured another trophyless campaign and despite their promising start, slipped away in the third quarter leaving them with nothing to play for at the business end of the season. Recent results suggest they've thrived on a lack of pressure but beating Derby 6-2 is very misleading given how the Rams are now officially the worst Premier League team in history. For this encounter we're siding with the draw at 11/4 with bet365 but we're very interested in snapping up William Hill's 9/4 about Nicklas Bendtner scoring anytime. The young striker has started the last two games and scored in each of them so if he's given the nod once again he could bring you into profit.

Verdict: Sunderland 1 Arsenal 1 (CH)

Tottenham v Liverpool

This could have been plenty riding on this White Hart Lane clash but both sides have come up short in terms of league ambitions and it's now no more than a bit of fun in the sun. That doesn't exactly bode well for a punt although there's a line of thought that Spurs could coax a high-scoring contest out of the Merseysiders, who normally save such goal-fests for Cup finals. Spurs haven't been as prolific in the run-in, netting just a single goal in their last six fixtures, but they are still creating plenty of chances. Four of those games have ended in 1-1 draws and given that five of the last meetings against Liverpool have also ended in stalemate (two 1-1s, two 2-2s and a 0-0) a scoring draw looks a pretty decent call. Liverpoolare hard to beat - they've lost less games than Manchester United - but their title bid has been hampered by draws in these sort of games. 0-0 doesn't look too likely given the attacking talent on show so 1-1 and 2-2 (the score at Anfield earlier this season) looks the best way to go for a correct score punt. It's 16/1 for a 'Desmond' at bet365 and that seems worth a small play given that Paddy Power make 2-2 just 9/1. Goalscorer punters might want to try the 9/4 about Robbie Keane finding the net. He scored both Tottenham's goals in the reverse fixture and also netted the winner at Reading last week.

Verdict: Tottenham 2 Liverpool 2 (DT)

West Ham v Aston Villa

West Ham rolled over far too easily against Manchester United last week and they were rarely a factor once Ronaldo put the title-chasing Red Devils in front inside three minutes. And the motivation in this match is all with Aston Villa who still have designs on a UEFA Cup slot. However it was a huge surprise to see Villa turned over at home by Wigan last weekend because they'd been on a great run of form up to that - 10 points out of 12 and no fewer than 17 goals scored in those four games. The continued speculation over skipper Gareth Barry probably isn't helping them and the win/lose/draw market looks one to sit out from a betting perspective. That point is underlined by West Ham's wildly contrasting form, even in the space of 90 minutes as anyone who saw their last home game against Newcastle will testify. However we do expect goals and the 5/2 Hills chalk up about Gabriel Agbonlahor being one of those to find the net does appeal. He's scored in four of his last five matches and had three good chances against Wigan last week to make it five out of five.

Verdict: West Ham 2 Aston Villa 2 (JT)

Wigan Athletic v Man Utd

Chelsea fans with a penchant for conspiracy theories will have spent plenty of time in the build-up to Sunday muttering discontentedly. After all, Wigan secured their safety last week and they're managed by a Manchester United old boy. If anything though, Steve Bruce will be even more keen than usual to show that his team are putting in a big effort, especially after West Ham capitulated so tamely at Old Trafford last week. Having said that, the overwhelming feeling in this one is that United aren't going to let the title slip now. So however hard Wigan try, the visitors will be giving it just that little bit extra and that should allow United's extra class to tell. Although this is Bruce's team, United have an outstanding record against Wigan in the recent past and the six meetings since the Latics were promoted have produced scorelines of 4-0, 4-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-1 and 4-0. If United get their noses in front early and get some daylight with a second, we think they have an excellent chance of letting their hair down and clinching the title in emphatic style. Therefore, backing United to score four or more goals - an outcome with a 50% strike rate in the last six fixtures between the two - is worth a small play at 4/1.

Verdict: Wigan 1 Manchester United 4

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**keemanan** · #7 (**permalink**) 09-05-2008, 14:11

I'm backing against City at Boro , we were dire v Pool last week plus we now know that if we dont make any tackles at all we will qualify for Europe!
I advise you to get on boro at a ground where we have won once in a million years

mrmuzeman · #8 (**permalink**) 09-05-2008, 15:31

That 1 City win was last season though Keem

I get what youre saying though, I mean the games a dead rubber. Due to the fair play place, get no cards in this game and youre in the Uefa Cup, thats gota be the main focus of the game surely.

So you would expect the City players to be staying on their feet and not going into tackles hard etc and rightly so, why do anything else. Id go as far as saying any City player getting booked in this game is a total and absolute gimp. So id advise backing Ireland to get booked

I think the price has factored this in a bit though, Boro are 11/10 after all even though theyre shite, they lost at home to Bolton and Reading recently the crazy fools.

selectabet · #9 (**permalink**) 10-05-2008, 09:16

Just posted this on my blog.. I'm with you Keem

With England landing an extra place in next season’s Uefa Cup after topping Europe’s fair play rankings it appears we could have a bit of non-event at the Riverside tomorrow.

Man City are in pole position to be England’s representatives courtesy of their good discipline this season. They actually sit fifth in the fair play league but they’re behind Tottenham, Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool - who are all already guaranteed a place in European competition.

So if you were a Man City player would you be rushing into tackles tomorrow, knowing that a booking could mean your team loses out on a European adventure next season? No, neither would I.

On the betting front the only bet I can find that could be worth capitalising on is the Total Cards market. Bet365 have this at 8/15 for there being under 2.5. It really looks like it’s going to be a timid affair so it could be worth a plunder.

Boro are already favourites to win the match at 11/10 (888 Sport, Bet365, BetDirect, BlueSq, Boylesports, Canbet, Skybet, Stan James, Totesport) and now that Man City have received the news that they’re one game without a booking away from being in Europe I wouldn’t have thought they’d be trying 100%. That makes Boro even stronger favourites and the 11/10 is worth snapping up now.

**slick** · #10 (**permalink**) 10-05-2008, 17:09

Didnt Boro screw up our Euro hopes a couple of yrs back when Fowler missed a late pen? I don't quite see City as a roll over but I'll come to that later.

Well last weekend in the Prem for another season and still some interesting matches to be played with something at stake in 8 of the final 10 games from what i can see.

Birmingham v Blackburn
Must win game for Birmingham who who have gone from relative safety to relegation favourites in the matter of a few weeks.

Blackburn have nothing to play for but have been playing well in recent games and i don't see them just turning up for the fun of it here, even on paper Blackburn look far the better side and Birmingham are going to struggle to outplay them footballing wise, they may have the effort but its going to take a lot more than that against class players of the likes of Friedel, Pederson, Bentley ,Cruz and .....co

I know Birmingham need the result but i just don't see them beating Blackburn.

Lay Birmingham

Derby v Reading
Can't really back against Reading in such an important match against very poor opposition in Derby.
Won't be a walk over mind but it will be a pretty tense and tight affair with few goals i should imagine, which could be the way to go here as it would take a mug to back them @ odds on away from home.

Reading win -2.5 goals.

Boro v Man City
I can't see City handling this game with kid gloves allthough a UEFA cup place could depend on it, there not a very physical side anyhow and the booking they do normally collect are for silly challenges and impetulance usually, all Sven will tell them is just play ure usual game and cut out the silly stuff.

Boro are not the most consistant side either and if both teams play to their full potential i see no reason City cannot win this as there performance in the reverse fixture was one of Citys best all season and they'll remember that.

I can actually see City winning this or at least bagging a draw as they will want to see Sven bow out on a high if he is really going out the door after this .

Lay Middlesbrough

Portsmouth v Fulham
Well if recent form is anything to go by as Pompey gear up for the FA Cup then Fulham have every chance of getting the points here to gurantee their safety for another season at least.

Shit or bust for Fulham and with a fully fit squad they should keep their recent run of form going and grab the spoils, Portsmouth won't be looking to be going in where it hurts with such an important match for them coming up next week and once again as been the case in recent weeks will probably be the difference here.

Fulham win

Spurs v Liverpool
Nothing at stake for either side and should be a case of just getting this one out of the way b4 boarding the plane for sunnier climates, well it will be for the Brit players anyhow.

Both teams look pretty strong and on recent form I would probably give Liverpool the nod but with so little to play for I'll give this one a miss but I would expect to see a few goals in what could turn out to be an exhibition match.

Lay Spurs +2.5 goals.

Wigan v Man U
No need to go into detail about the importance of this one , Just a pity Wigan are now safe as it would have been a cracking spectacle had Wigan gone into this match needing something from it.

As it is Man U will no doubt seal up the Prem with a win here allthough expect a few twists and turns on the way as all week I've had a sneaky feeling wigan will nab a point but thats probably just wishful thinking.

Man U win

Chelsea v Bolton
Similar type of game as the one above only difference being Chelsea have home advantage which makes this a shoe in basically.

Tidgey odds no doubt for Chelsea but i wouldent be surprised to see very few goals in this as it could prove a nervy affair as Bolton arent the sort of side to lay down and die, plus they won't want to give anything away unncessarily whilst mathematically not guaranteed safety allthough it would take something really freaky to see them relegated.

Chelsea win

Everton v Newcastle
Only a point needed for Everton to Gurantee a UEFA cup place next season but i can see them getting all three to round off a great season for them in front of their home fans.

Newcastle have been on a bit of a high lately but that has been against the more mediocre teams and Chelsea shown them last weekend how far behind they are still lagging.

everton are no Chelsea and have been struggling a bit lately but i think a final push here will see them win this by the odd goal and see them into Europe next yr.

Everton win

Sunderland v Arsenal
Those odds don't look so bad for Arsenal tell the truth as Sunderland seemed to have ended there season a month ago.

Keane keeps cracking the whip with threats here and there but nobody seems to be listening and they look to be going out like a damp squib.

Arsenal like they shown last week against Everton are still full of football and running, and man for man should really piss this allthough i remember thinking the same thing against Boro but saying that it was cold and damp then, the current conditions should suit arsenal to a tee.

Arsenal win

last and not least for the season....
West Ham V Villa

Villa are still probably shell shocked after last weeks home defeat to wigan and no doubt O'neill will have read the riot act to them this week.

Villa need the win if they are to stand any chance of qualifying for Europe next season and with the kick up the arse they would have had this week i can see them getting them.

West Ham have once again suffered more than most with Injuries throughout the course of the season and will be wanting to put this term to bed.

They will make a game of it no doubt in their last home game of the season but as they havent hardly broke sweat for most of their games this season i don't expect them to do so here either.

Villa win

mrmuzeman · #11 (**permalink**) 10-05-2008, 17:45

I know Reading need the win and Derby are shite but the odds are just wrong in this game imo. Derby have actually gained 1 more point at home than Reading have away this season.

Not that I think Reading shouldnt be favourites, they should be they are a better team and have more motivation but 8/13 for a team with only 1 away win all season? No way, but still relying on Derby is not something I would like to put money on. But due to Readings stupidly low price there is a betting opportunity available I believe represents good value, which is Derby +1 at Evens. If Reading win by 1 goal you get your money back. If they fail to win the bet wins.

So at Even money it comes down to 1 question, whats more likely - a comprehensive Reading win or a Draw/Derby win.

Derbys home record - 1-5-12.

Of those 12 losses, 6 were losses by 1 goal and 6 were 2goal+ losses. Who beat them by 2 goals or more? Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Villa, Spurs and West Ham. In other words all excellent/good/top half teams. Not a single crap/bottom half team has gone to Pride Park and beaten Derby by 2 goals or more and surprisingly Man U and Liverpool only won by the 1 goal.

Couple that with another big factor that Reading havent even scored a goal for 6 games on the trot and youve got a pretty good case for Derby -1 I think. Nothing points to a comfortable Reading win at all.

**Bigkegman** · #12 (**permalink**) 10-05-2008, 18:46

10/11 about Arsenal really really tempts me. i know it will prove either value or not when the teams are announced but i could temp them - as mentioned above they will still play football regardless of needing result

parksy · #13 (**permalink**) 10-05-2008, 22:16

if city dont get a couple of red cards tomorrow and s.g.e doesnt run out onto the pitch and head butts the ref city will be in europe tomorrow night.......a couple of yellow cards will make no difference........i wouldnt rule out city winning tomorrow......but more than likley a draw......both teams nothing to play for.......a nice kick a bout in the sun for both teams.......

**kompressaur** · #14 (**permalink**) Yesterday, 06:07

bah i was here to take fulham at hopefully tasty odds but they aint that tasty at all are they? Derby a stand out 5/1 with skybet. Reading can't score can they?

Liverpool always beat tottenham home and away so i might ...nah i think i will just look on.