05/05/08 Women's FA Cup Final

[Napoleon Solo]

This is only a fleeting visit as I'm back in the country for this bank holiday weekend and, lo and behold, the Women's FA Cup is on the telly. As I'll no doubt be watching it, I may as well have a bet on it as well.

Kick Off at 13:00 BST from the City Ground, Nottingham
Live on BBC


Arsenal Ladies v Leeds United Ladies
Arsenal 1.25 Draw 6.00 Leeds 13.00

Originally Posted by http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/women/7381826.stm

Arsenal striker Julie Fleeting could miss the women's FA Cup final against Leeds after sustaining an injury in Scotland's 2-1 to Denmark last Sunday.

The holders will be without midfielder Kim Little, so Ciara Grant is set to take her place in midfield.

Leeds right-back Nicole Emmanuel faces a late fitness test on a knee injury.

[Napoleon Solo]

Head-to-Head

02/03/08 Leeds 0 - 4 Arsenal (Lge)
20/05/07 Arsenal 6 - 0 Leeds (Lge)
25/03/07 Leeds 1 - 8 Arsenal (Lge)
04/03/07 Leeds 0 - 1 Arsenal (Lge Cup)
22/01/06 Leeds 1 - 4 Arsenal (Lge)
21/08/05 Arsenal 4 - 3 Leeds (Lge)



Arsenal Recent Results

27/04/08 Arsenal 5 - 1 Blackburn (Lge) HT 4-0
24/04/08 Arsenal 4 - 1 Chelsea (Lge) HT 2-1
20/04/08 Arsenal 2 - 0 Bristol Academy (Lge) HT 1-0
13/04/08 Arsenal 0 - 0 Everton (Lge) HT 0-0
03/04/08 Birmingham 0 - 3 Arsenal (Lge) HT 0-3
30/03/08 Arsenal 3 - 0 Birmingham (Lge) HT 1-0
26/03/08 Doncaster 2 - 4 Arsenal (Lge) HT 1-2

Leeds Recent Results

27/04/08 Bristol Academy 0 - 0 Leeds (Lge) HT 0-0
20/04/08 Cardiff 0 - 4 Leeds (Lge) HT 0-3
17/04/08 Leeds 2 - 0 Liverpool (Lge) HT 2-0
13/04/08 Leeds 1 - 0 Bristol Academy (Lge) HT 1-0
09/04/08 Everton 4 - 0 Leeds (Lge) HT 1-0
23/03/08 Chelsea 1 - 2 Leeds (Lge) HT 1-1
16/03/08 Everton 0 - 0 Leeds (FA Cup) HT 0-0

[Napoleon Solo]

One bet that springs directly to mind is "half with most goals - 1st half".

The last 3 finals that have featured the current "dominant" Arsenal side have featured:

2007: 5 goals, 4 before half time
2006: 5 goals, 3 before half time
2004: 3 goals, 2 before half time

Also, looking at the seasons goal distributions for each team, Arsenal score and concede about the same amount of goals in each half, though this is somewhat offset by the fact that early season Arsenal were generally scoring their goals later in the games, whereas mid- to late-season they've been scoring far more goals in the first half of games.

Leeds concede a similar amount of goals both before and after half time in their games, but generally score more goals before the break. This has remained statistically constant throughout the season.

More goals in the first half @ 3.10 (Bet365) - 3/10

[Napoleon Solo]

Both these teams generally like to score early 58% of Arsenal's first goals scored have been before the 20 minute mark while they've also conceded their first goal in 21% of their games before this time. Discounting the games where no goals were scored against Arsenal, just under 50% of the goals scored by the opposition were within the 20 minute mark.

Leeds have also scored the first goal in 29% of their games and conceded the first goal in 24% of their games before the 20 minute mark. Discounting games when Leeds have failed to score, their first goal percentage in the first 20 minutes is roughly 38%. Discounting the games where teams have failed to score against Leeds, they've conceded their first goals roughly 33% of the time before the 20th minute.


When these teams do score, they generally score early.

Time of 1st Goal - 25th minute or before @ 2.05 (Better, BetDirect, StanJames) - 2 points

[kompressaur]

Brilliant Nap and i hope that you are well. Ive done ok the last 3 years of this and i like the sound of your time of first goal. Ive a family do today and then loads of doctors to see tuesday but i should be back for a big sit from then onwards. good luck to us today

[kompressaur]

Im loving these early goals bets Napoleon. Your early goal stats reinforce it as i was just thinking before i got to your posts that there was always an early goal in this. Let me see if i can find how the last few finals have went.

2004 Arsenal 3-0 Charlton Athletic Scorers: Fleeting (3) 23', 25', 83'
2005 Charlton Athletic 1-0 Everton Scorer: Aluko 58'
2006 Arsenal 5-0 Leeds United Scorers: Ward (o.g) 3', Fleeting 34', Yankey 35', K. Smith (pen) 73', Sanderson 77'
2007 Arsenal 4-1 Charlton Athletic Scorers: Holtham (CHA) 2', Smith (ARS) 7', 80', Ludlow (ARS) 15', 45'

aye well it seems that way but heh i cannot base my whole betting strategy on my knowledge of a segment of a competition. Ive taken a wee bit of it in -

1 - 10 11/4 -3pts
11 - 20 7/2 - 3pts
Prices with bet365

but i want to convince myself of taking the bet even more. It's a nice kick-off time too.

[kompressaur]

come on you bitches!!!! you whores.....oooo off the barr

[kompressaur]

Holy hell ive only had it on for 3 minutes and Arsenal have missed 3 gilt edged chances. Im away to a family do in about 5 minutes. Here's hoping for a goal before i leave

you slags!!!

[kompressaur]

Come on suzy baby!!!

[kompressaur]

man the Leeds goalie is breaking my heart

[mrmuzeman]

How Arsenal are not winning at HT I dont know, they must have had about 20 efforts/shots

[ONEDUNME]

I've been watching some of this game. I suppose I'd be expected to come out with the usual sexist stuff that the standard is shite and it's just a bunch of girlies running around a field.

Well it is. Arsenal are supposed to be one of the best aren't they? Or possibly THE best. It's crap. It's like watching kids playing grown ups.

Player down after 30 odd minutes (broken nail) and all the girls are sitting down taking on water bless em. Are they in the sahara desert? Brazil? Spain? No they're in Nottingham with the temperature is 16 degrees c.

Half time and no goals for you early goal backers I'm afraid.

[Beanie]

Quality comedy afternoon viewing - that throw in that didn't even make it into play

[rcgills]

I've had a little bit on Leeds @ 20/1 for the second half. Arsenal's finishing has been absolutely terrible, while Leeds have created very little, but they're the ones who had the ball in the back of the net in the first half with a decent enough finish, even if it was ruled out for offside.

[rcgills]

Well, that lasted all of about 4 minutes, didn't it?