19th April Welsh Premier League

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Final weekend odds from Coral

Aberystwyth v Newtown 1.80 3.40 3.60
Bangor v Neath 1.91 3.40 3.25
Caersws v Caernarfon 1.728 3.20 4.334
Newi Cefn Druids v Haverfordwest 2.30 3.25 2.60
TNS v Llanelli 2.30 3.25 2.60
Welshpool v Airbus 1.80 3.50 3.50
Connah's Quay v Carmarthen 2.75 3.50 2.10
Porthmadog v Rhyl 3.10 3.60 1.91
Port Talbot v Llangefni 1.728 3.75 3.60

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The final Saturday with all clubs playing the final game of the season.
I'm going to consider four matches involving the top and the bottom of the league.

The Champions Llanelli travel to last season Champions and second placed TNS.

The top of the table
1.Llanelli 85
2.T.N.S. 75
3.Rhyl 69

TNS v Llanelli

The bottom of the table
14.Caernarfon 33
15.Connah's Quay 31
16.Caersws 26
17.Porthmadog 24
18.Llangefni 24

Caersws v Caernarfon
Porthmadog v Rhyl
Port Talbot v Llangefni

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TNS v Llanelli

Some stats for this season :
TNS home form W14 D1 L1
TNS last 10 games W5 D2 L3

Llanelli way form W14 D2 L0
Llanelli last 10 games W9 D1 L0

The last time Llanelli dropped points was Sat 16-02-2008 against Bangor and they have a super away record.
TNS has had a bit of a slump away from home at the back end of this season.
10 points between the clubs is a big gap. Llanelli had an easy 4-0 win at home to TNS and Llanelli won 2-0 at TNS last season.
I can see Llanelli going out to prove that they are the top side in this league.
Both of these sides like to play passing football so the plastic pitch will suit both sides .
Llanelli @2.75 with paddies will be my bet

It is difficult to see any of the bottom clubs winning and I suppose all three would regard a draw as some kind of success.
With that in mind Caersws @ 1.7 looks like a daft price to me which makes that Caernarfon @ 4.3 very tempting.

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Caersws v Caernarfon
Caersws last three games have been draws , one being 1-1 at home Llangefni , prior to these draws they had lost 7 games. Caersws have a poor home record W2 D3 L11 .
Caernarfon have won their last two games , they beat Llangefni 1-0 at home with a weakend side. Caernarfon away record is poor W4 D2 L10 and those wins were last year with the most recent away win was Sun 18-11-2007. I suppose that it is this away record that has dictated Caernarfon's price.
These are two poor sides so anything coulld happen. I saw Caernarfon win on Tuesday , their performance was not much but their commitment was 100% even though they were safe from relegation.
I am hoping that Caernarfon win to give my side Port a slim chance to avoid relegation but I do see value in Caernarfon's price.
Caernarfon @ 4.33 with Coral

Porthmadog v Rhyl
Port the only side that has not won at home all season against 3rd placed Rhyl , Port did give Rhyl a good game on Easter monday but lost 1-0 with a goal in the 80th minute.H2H record is in Rhyl's favour with Port winning 1 and Rhyl winning 7 in their recent league encounters.
I'll be watching this match hoping for a Port win but evens for Rhyl looks a nice price but it will not get my money when we need points to avoid relegation. I spoke to some of Port's committe at the Caernarfon game last night and there are a few injury worries and Roberts one of our defenders is working.
Rhyl @ 2.0 with paddies is a decent bet , but loyalty prevents me from betting even though I have gone against my club in the past

Port Talbot v Llangefni
Pot Talbot 4th in the league who are a good home side , they were well beaten 5-0 by Rhyl last Saturday but recovered and won 3-1 at Welshpool on Tuesday. Llangefni are the bottom side with the worse away record in this league . I saw them lose at Caernarfon on Wednesday and they did work hard but lacked height up front . I cannot see anything but a home win here and I'm hoping for an easy win to give my team a chance of staying up .
Port Talbot @ 1.73 with Coral

At the end of last month I said I was going to avoid betting on this league in April due to my record in previous seasons, but the relegation struggle has involved my club and i've been sucked in and my season's profit has suffered since March 21st.
Take care with these bets boys and good luck.

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Caersws v Caernarfon

this preview from Welsh-premier site

SIXTEEN years' unbroken membership of the Welsh Premier could come to an end if Caersws fail to beat Caernarfon in their final game of the season on Saturday.
The Bluebirds have not been in the relegation zone since November, but hover just two points clear of beleaguered Porthmadog and Llangefni Town.
Both their rivals face difficult "must-win" tasks, Port at home to Rhyl and Cefni away to Port Talbot. But Caersws manager David Taylor does not want to take any chances.
"The lads are confident having drawn the last three games and they know it has to be maximum points against Caernarfon," he says.
"It has been a long, hard season but our destiny remains very much in our own hands so it would be fantastic to get as many fans down as possible this weekend.
"We have improved over the last few games and probably should have won against Neath Athletic. We had the chances but just could not put them away and I felt we had a clear penalty claim rejected."
Chairman Peter Harding added: "Everyone at the club is focused on winning this game and keeping Caersws in the Welsh Premier."
18 April 2008

I spoke to Dave Taylor , Caersws manager , at the Caernarfon game on Tuesday. He was just as nervous as the Port fans until Caernarfon scored.
Dave played for Port as a striker some years ago and was top scorer in Europe.

this from wikipedia about Dave's golden shoe

Unofficial winners from 1991 to 1996
The Golden Shoe was made unofficial from 1991 to 1996, following a protest from the Cyprus FA where a player allegedly scored 40 goals, though the official top scorers for the season are both listed with 19 goals. Due to this affair, France Football decided to make the competition unofficial until 1996. The top scorer for the 1990–91 season, Darko Pancev, did not receive his award until 2006.[5] It was reinstated in 1996 with different regulations. The "unofficial" Golden Shoe winners, according to the pre-1991 rules, would have been:


Season Player Club League Goals Notes
1991–92 Ally McCoist Rangers Scottish Premier Division goals 34 [1]
1992–93 Ally McCoist Rangers Scottish Premier Division goals 34 [1][6]
1993–94 David Taylor Porthmadog League of Wales goals 43 [1]
1994–95 ArsenArsen Avetisyan Homenetmen Armenian Premier League goals 39 [1]
1995–96 ZviadZviad Endeladze Margveti Georgian Umaglesi Liga. goals 40 [1]

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getting to squeaky bum time on the final day

Porthmadog v Rhyl
From what i've heard the Port players are confident of a win
they do have a few missing , its reported local boy Mathew from the reserves will get a game , about fucking time , this preview from today's daily post

We can’t let fear get the better of us - Porthmadog
Apr 19 2008 by Our Correspondent, Daily Post

SECOND-bottom Porthmadog will go for the jugular when they host Rhyl today looking to pull off a last-ditch escape from relegation.
The Traeth side need to win to have a chance of staying up, and will be looking to avenge a 1-0 defeat at Belle Vue on Easter Monday.
Manager Viv Williams said: “We need the three points, obviously, and intend to adopt a positive mood and go for the win.
“At the same time, we recognise the Rhyl threat, because they are in third place, have invariably finished near the top and were champions four seasons ago.
“This is just like a cup final and we have to ensure we are up for it, keep our discipline and take our chances when they come.”
Matthew Hughes, who has hit 35 goals for the reserves in the Gwynedd League, will be promoted to the senior squad and utility man Richard Hughes will return after missing last Saturday’s 0-0 draw in Carmarthen.
Porthmadog are missing Rhys Roberts, who is banned after Saturday’s dismissal, and Richard Smart and Danny Hughes, who have work demands.
Rhyl manager John Hulse dismissed fears that his side would be soft-pedalling against Porthmadog, writes Mike McEvoy.
Anxious to allay the concerns of Porthmadog’s relegation rivals that the Lilywhites – who are guaranteed third – would be travelling simply for the ride, Hulse said: “We will be going flat out for a win.
“As far as we are concerned we will be looking for three points and we owe that total commitment to all the clubs involved and to the League.”
With Llangefni Town and Caersws also sweating on the result, Hulse has no intention of easing off the throttle.
He said: “We still have an important Loosemores Cup final to come against Llanelli at Newtown on Sunday week so I am sure my players will want to impress.”
Hulse is hoping that Craig Jones and Greg Stones will return to face Porthmadog while Carl Ruffer and Craig Garside are doubtful and Jimmy Kelly is still out.

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Originally Posted by traeth

.
Llanelli @2.75 with paddies will be my bet

It is difficult to see any of the bottom clubs winning and I suppose all three would regard a draw as some kind of success.
With that in mind Caersws @ 1.7 looks like a daft price to me which makes that Caernarfon @ 4.3 very tempting.

today's results ...a great day for my club Porthmadog we avoid relegation with our first home win , the last 20 minutes was hell and felt like 2 hours , our keepermade one great save and 4 blunders but was not punished

Welsh Premier League
Aberystwyth 2-2 Newtown
Bangor City 1-1 Neath
Caersws 0-1 Caernarfon..great result
Connah's Quay 4-3 Carmarthen
Newi Cefn Druids 1-0 Haverfordwest
Port Talbot 3-1 Llangefni Town... another great result , well done charly
Porthmadog 1-0 Rhyl..super result
The New Saints FC 3-0 Llanelli , the only negative on a great day
Welshpool Town 0-1 Airbus

the bottom of the table
Porthmadog 27
Caersws 26
Llangefni 24