Sat/Sun 12/13th Jan: League Two

[kompressaur]

Bradford - Notts County	81	1.89	3.22	3.62	12.01.2008 - 16:00
Brentford - Chesterfield	83	2.55	3.16	2.46	12.01.2008 - 16:00
Chester - Mansfield	82	1.70	3.35	4.37	12.01.2008 - 16:00
Darlington - Bury	83	1.59	3.45	5.10	12.01.2008 - 16:00
Grimsby - Wrexham	83	1.71	3.35	4.35	12.01.2008 - 16:00
Lincoln - Rotherham	83	2.71	3.18	2.32	12.01.2008 - 16:00
Milton Keynes - Barnet	82	1.40	3.93	7.10	12.01.2008 - 16:00
Morecambe - Dagenham & Redbridge	79	1.63	3.40	4.85	12.01.2008 - 16:00
Peterborough - Macclesfield	83	1.47	3.65	6.23	12.01.2008 - 16:00
Stockport - Accrington Stanley	83	1.91	3.22	3.57	12.01.2008 - 16:00
Wycombe - Rochdale	83	1.96	3.21	3.44	12.01.2008 - 16:00
Hereford - Shrewsbury	82	1.77	3.29	4.08	13.01.2008 - 15:00

[Towers]

Grimsby, four victories on a row, against poor Wrexham= 3 points Grimsby.

[kompressaur]

A little bit of money for Bury on the exchanges. Nothing really happening. How's Grmsby been at home Towers? I know theyve been ok on the road. are Wrexham still bad?

[kompressaur]

Dropping into League Two and Rotherham should be backed at 7/5 to get the better of struggling Lincoln at Sincil Bank.

The Merry Millers have done this column some favours in recent weeks and sitting third in the table Mark Robins' men are fancied for automatic promotion this season.

Away from Millmoor, Rotherham have lost just once all season and while they will have been bitterly disappointed to lose to league leaders MK Dons last Saturday, it was their first defeat in five and at odds against should be well punted to beat a Lincoln side that have lost six of their 12 home games.

The Imps did pick up a shock 2-0 win at Rochdale last weekend, but that result came through two late goals when Dale were pushing for a winner and got hit on the break, and with just one win in six prior to that it would be a big surprise if they can repeat the performance against the Millers.

Rotherham have had a real tough run of fixtures in recent weeks, but time and time again have shown their quality, and even if not at their best they should have too much in the locker for a Lincoln side who look a shadow of the team they were last season

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[Bigkegman]

Shortlist for me (well not that short)

Chesterfield, Rotherham, Milton Keynes, Peterborough and Grimsby (as mentioned above).

Not rocket science but its teams with form playing teams out of form

[jbgb007uk]

I like Kegs list. If I get chance later I will put why. I especially like Rotherham and Grimsby.

[kompressaur]

ESPNsoccernet - England - Grimsby v Wrexham Preview

Brentford have been getting the results since they got a new manager Kegs. Griffin Pk is a hard place to go too with a crowd expecting nothing but a win from the new manager. I used to enjoy going to see Brentford. Always look out for them these days still. Chesterfield top striker Lester will be back for this one too. Looks a hard game to me.

Fcuk i as gonna suggest Mansfield then at the odds but team news and form is not making it seemm worth mentioning. I'd usually like Mansfield away at the likes of Chester. Maybe last week's away win in the cup will give them an attitude of 'well we can go to Brighton and get a result why not Chester?' Just a thought.

Grimsby 3/4 Expekt and VCbet. I still cant get excited by Grimsby at home at that price. I dont know anything about it though. Good enough team news for Grimsby and this for Wrecham-

Rock-bottom Wrexham make the trip with manager Brian Little weighing up whether to hand debuts to new signings Phil Bolland and Gavin Ward.

The inclusion of defender Bolland and goalkeeper Ward, who both joined this week from Chester, would add some much-needed experience into the struggling Wrexham side as they bid to end a six-game winless streak in League Two.

Little, meanwhile, will definitely be without Chris Llewellyn as the striker serves a one-match ban while Neil Taylor is doubtful with a knock.

Sam Aiston, who also secured a permanent move from Northampton this week, and Richard Hope have both overcome ankle injuries but Eifion Williams (hamstring) and Danny Williams (back) remain sidelined.

Midfielder Matt Crowell returns from a three-match ban as the Dragons go in search of a victory which could lift them off bottom spot.

soccernet

A bit of money on rochdale. 11/4 generally.

Stockport not looking to good for tomorrow-

Stockport boss Jim Gannon is again expected to be missing a host of players for the visit of Accrington.

Centre-back Gareth Owen is likely to miss the next three weeks after picking up a hamstring injury at Notts County last weekend.

Youngster James Tunnicliffe is set to deputise after doing so in the midweek Johnstone's Paint Trophy defeat against Grimsby.

Rob Clare, Ashley Williams and Matty McNeil remain sidelined through injury but Jim McNulty is eligible again after missing out in midweek.

County are bidding to bounce back from the Johnstone's Paint Trophy exit and extend their three-game winning streak in League Two.

They have been boosted this week after defender Michael Raynes signed a new contract to keep him at Edgeley Park until the summer of 2010.

Accrington boss John Coleman will hand a debut to defender Mark King.

The left-back, 19, who can also play in the centre of defence, has joined on a free transfer from Blackburn.

King signed a professional contract with Stanley's Premier League neighbours last season, but his progress has been hampered by two serious knee injuries.

He recently impressed Coleman while playing for Blackburn in a training match against Accrington and has signed a deal until the end of the season.

Goalkeeper Kenny Arthur remains sidelined after he broke a leg during the 3-0 win at Bradford last October.

However, he is stepping up his fitness and took part in the pre-match warm-up before last weekend's 3-3 home draw with Chester.

[allthethings]

Soccer - Stockport/Accrington - total Over 2½ (-123)
for the regulation time held on Jan 12 at 10:00am [pending]

A bit rich but this seems a good bet. Stockport have played to 75 percent overs at home, keeping just two clean sheets, while Accrington 58 percent away including their last three away and seven of their last eight overall.

[kompressaur]

Bargain Basement - How away teams are bringing home the bacon in League Two
by Mark Langdon
.
YOU can't beat home comforts – after all, they say there is no place like it, it's where the heart is, and all the rest of it.

That may be true when you're sitting on the sofa with a beer in one hand and the TV remote in the other, but for League Two teams this season it has been the opposite.

Amazingly, more games in League Two have been won by the visitors than by home sides. Tuesday's 4-0 win for Wycombe at Mansfield made it 109 away victories to 108 home successes.

It means home advantage has been pretty much worthless in the fourth tier this season with no fewer than 11 sides – MK Dons, Hereford, Chesterfield, Darlington, Chester, Stockport, Rochdale, Accrington, Brentford, Grimsby and Dagenham – recording more victories on the road than in front of their own fans.

This has led to a few punters coining it in by taking big prices about away teams.

For instance, there were seven games in the division last Saturday and six road sides won at prices of 4-1, 8-5, 7-4, 4-1, 8-5 and 3-1 – the other match finished in a draw.

Anyone who backed away teams across the board to a level £10 stake this season would be an incredible £790.50 in profit by now.

It means shelling out £120 every week, but in only eight of the 25 rounds of matches would you have lost money.

There are different theories as to what lies behind this remarkable trend.

Coral odds-compiler Tim Dinsdale, who keenly follows Shrewsbury, reckons the attitude of the better teams is changing on the road.

He said: “It's like the equivalent of the big four in the Premier League with sides like MK Dons, Darlington and Peterborough going out to try to win away games now. They are now clearly superior because of their greater spending power.

“Thegap is getting wider between the top and bottom – I can't ever remember a team being tailed off like Wrexham are this season.”

Richard Browning of Skybet is not convinced, believing it is a division which constantly throws up shock results and that iswhy away teams are performing better.

“My theory is anybody can beat anybody in this league,” said Browning.

“I've lost count of the number of times I've watched a game in the lower leagues and not been able to tell which team was top and who was at the bottom.

“I would always rather be top-price the home favourite than the away outsider.
It's not like the Premier League where some teams have no chance at Old Trafford – you only have to see that Bury have won at MK Dons this season.

“I would be happy if every accumulator this weekend featured MK Dons at 4-9 at home to Barnet.”

The key question is can this money-making system be sustained in the long run? RPSPORT'S statistical guru Kevin Pullein says he is always wary of short-term trends and prefers to look at the bigger picture which suggests the substantial drop in home victories in League Two is just a passing phase.

He said: “My opinion is this is just one of those random variations which happens from time to time and punters should be cautious about the trend continuing.

“The Football League average in the past ten seasons is 45 per cent of home wins and last season it came in bang on that figure.

“The average is just the average. Some years it will be higher and others lower, but I anticipate home teams in League Two will win 44 or 45 per cent of their fixtures.

“There was a period like this before when something similar happened. Just 38 per cent of home teams won in the first half of the 2005-06 season, but it was back up to 42 per cent by the end of the season.”

WHY home advantage is ever a factor has confused – and will continue to confuse – punters and bookmakers alike. Some believe the crowd can have a huge effect on proceedings, yet if that is the case why are the stats virtually the same for the English Premier League and Scottish Division Three?

You would be lucky to get a few hundred for a Scottish Division Three match, yet 45 per cent of games have been wonby home teams. The figure is 47 per cent in the Premier League.

“We just don't know why playing at home is an advantage,” said Pullein, who has spent years studying the subject. “And that is why it is even more difficult to evaluate the League Two statistics – we're fumbling in the dark.”

However, the punters of the future may not have to ask themselves why home teams generally enjoy better results.

“There has been a downward trend ever since the Football League began in 1888 suggesting it is becoming less important year on year,” added Pullein.

“In 1888, home teams won 60 per cent. That is down to 45 and if that trend continues home advantage will be worthless in about 100 years.”

Perhaps the League Two teams are ahead of their time.

www.racingpost.co.uk

[kompressaur]

most reports missing. ill do this league in an hour