FA Cup Semi's & Premiership: 22nd/23rd April

[kompressaur]

FA Cup
Neutral Venues
22 Apr-17:15 Chelsea v Liverpool 11/10 2/1 12/5
23 Apr-16:00 Middlesbrough v West Ham 13/10 21/10 15/8

Barclays Premiership
22 Apr-12:45 Arsenal v Tottenham 8/13 5/2 4/1
22 Apr-15:00 Bolton v Charlton 5/6 12/5 11/4
22 Apr-15:00 Everton v Birmingham 1/1 9/4 12/5
22 Apr-15:00 Newcastle v West Brom 4/5 23/10 3/1
22 Apr-15:00 Portsmouth v Sunderland 4/11 10/3 6/
odds from bet365

more odds here-
http://www.thedailypunt.com/odds

[wise owl]

My First Impressions ( No Reasoning yet )

Chelsea - Liverpool ( 1 )

Boro - W Ham ( 1 )

Arsenal - Tottenham ( 1 )

Bolton - Charlton ( x )

Everton - Birmingham ( x )

Newcastle - WBA ( 1 )

Portsmouth- Sunderland ( 2,x )

Will try to share more once team news and other info is available.....Other views???

[kompressaur]

Anyone fancy anything as Wise Owl asks?

I'd be interested in Chelsea, Bolton, Evertonand Newcastle. Im away till sat morning (in library) hopefully from next weke onwards i'll be internetted up at the girls.

[Gaz Stod]

I'll be having a half decent sized bet on Arsenal v Tottenham, the gooners ooz class and I think if there in top form they could give them abit of a battering. Spurs are gonna try play football against Arsenal and thats always gonna be a dangerous with Henry and co on the counter. Last week was a perfect example of Spurs been caught on the break against Man USA. Tottenham are no great shakes away from home anyway and a quick look at the H2H's at Highbury show home wins for the last 6 years.

I dont actually rate Tottenham, bit of a sticky team for me:booty

3-0 4-0 ??

[GETT1NLOTS]

Arsenal aren't any value at 1.61 for me Gaz. Apart from a brilliant display against Juventus and a cracking opening 20 minutes against Man Utd I haven't been OVERLY impressed with their recent displays. With regards to Spurs they should have been 3-0 up before conceding to Man Utd the other day.

That said I think Arsenal will probably shade this but I would want closer to 1.90 - especially with the 2nd leg Villareal game looming.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

The FA Cup ties for me are no bets and games i will not be getting involved with as i wouldn't be surprised to see any of the outcomes in both the games.


Bolton v Charlton

Have to say i quite like the price for Bolton to win at home to Charlton.

Bolton's form has really gone off the rails in their last 6 games where they haven't won a game and have lost 5 of these.

On paper that looks very bad but i don't think their performances have been all that bad and when you look at the games its not really that bad.

04-17	West Brom.	0-0	Bolton	D
04-15	Bolton	0-2	Chelsea	L
04-09	Liverpool	1-0	Bolton	L
04-04	Birmingham	1-0	Bolton	L
04-01	Bolton	1-2	Man.Utd	L
03-26	Middlesbro	4-3	Bolton	L

Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd make up the top 3 in the league. Then you have away games to WBA and Birmingham who are fighting for their lives at the minute and then the riverside too which is never an easy place to go and win.

So to me its not all that bad and they still possess a pretty solid home record of 9-4-3 and have only conceded 11 goals at home all season.

That defensive record is solid and when you see Charlton have failed to score in 6 of their last 10 matches you feel that they are going to have a hard time of it here at the Reebok.

Charltons away record reads 5-4-8 which is the 8th best in the league but when you look further into it you find that they won their first 5 away games in the league and have failed to win since and have really struggled away from home.

No major team news for either side. Diouf is still injured for Bolton but the return of Ben Haim to the defence after serving suspension should bolster the backline.

Bolton to win @ 1.91 Betfair(5/10)

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Rest of the games hold nothing for me.

I would've been interested in Newcastle at that price as they have been creeping up the league from nowhere and i do still expect them to win but not one to get involved with as all they have upfront available now is Ameobi, Luque and Chopra after Shearers injury and that is certainly not a strikeforce that has been freely scoring goals this season.

I could yet be interested in Everton depending on what Was, Mr M etc think on their chances?

Dunn been confirmed out for the season now which is a big blow to them. Only worry is i seen a few injuries out for the home side too.

Thoughts?

[crowie]

I still can't understand how Newcastle have put this run together but they are getting results. 3 defeats in 12 games - at Man Utd and Charlton and at home to Liverpool, 1 draw in those games, 0-0 at home to Charlton and the other 8 have been wins.

West Brom while battling relegation have taken 2 points from the last 18 possible but a closer look at their from has seen the 4 games they have lost being against the current top 4 in the league, not an easy run for any team. Stretching further back, their previous 3 defeats have been v Chelsea & Boro (both at home) and away to Fulham who were still playing well at home at the moment.

I am in 2 minds about Newcastle, the price of 1.82 -0.5 on VC's AH is almost appealing but I do think WBA's form isn't that bad when you look at their recent opponents. Being in 2 minds means the best idea is to leave it alone, it wouldn't surprise me to see WBA getting a point here.


Birmingham do seem to have a fair few injuries - Dunn, Upson, Heskey (maybe a good thing!) and Jarosik amongst others and normally I would fancy Everton but they have taken 2 points from their last 5 games although again they have had a few difficult opponents. A leave alone for me after Birmingham's win over Blackburn midweek.


Sunderland were back to normal form losing 4-1 v Newcastle on Monday. If ever there was ONE game that they were going to be up for in the last few in the EPL then it would be that one. The fact they managed to lose so heavily proves how much of a fluke the Man Utd result was.

Pompey are playing a high tempo all out attacking game and had Arsenals decent defence rattled a couple of times last midweek. The weekend win over Boro was undone by a late loss at Charlton but I think they will look at this game as a big opportunity to try and pick up points with the chances of Birmingham and WBA dropping them being quite high.

Sunderland must be preying for the end of the season now and I just cant see them holding out against Pompey. The price of 1.42 (Nordicbet) ain't great but I do think it will be a winner.

[crowie]

Not sure about Bolton, 1pt from last 18 and Charlton have managed to avert their usual end of season implode with only 2 losses in 10 games. Earlier in the season I would have been all over the 1.91 Bolton but not now.


Arsenal Spurs is a hard one to judge and with Arsenal having one eye on the CL game on Tuesday and also one eye on trying to catch Spurs for 4th in case the blow the CL then I am just not sure. Spurs do have a terrible record at Highbury though and while they have just clung onto 4th place for a decent bit of the season, their away record is a mixed bag of 6-5-6. Would side with Arsenal. Maybe

As for the FA Cup games, I can't see anything betting wise. Chelsea Liverpool screams unders but at a no doubt silly price. West Ham v Boro could go anyway but possibly a slight advantage to West Ham as they weren't in UEFA Cup action last night. No strong opinions on potential bets though.

[jbgb007uk]

Originally Posted by kompressaur

FA Cup
Neutral Venues
22 Apr-17:15 Chelsea v Liverpool 11/10 2/1 12/5
23 Apr-16:00 Middlesbrough v West Ham 13/10 21/10 15/8

Barclays Premiership
22 Apr-12:45 Arsenal v Tottenham 8/13 5/2 4/1
22 Apr-15:00 Bolton v Charlton 5/6 12/5 11/4
22 Apr-15:00 Everton v Birmingham 1/1 9/4 12/5
22 Apr-15:00 Newcastle v West Brom 4/5 23/10 3/1
22 Apr-15:00 Portsmouth v Sunderland 4/11 10/3 6/
odds from bet365

more odds here-
http://www.thedailypunt.com/odds

Right lets have a look at the Chelsea semi-final -

My probable teams

Chelsea - Cudicini, Geremi, Gallas, Terry, Del Horno, Essien, Makelele, Lampard, Robben, Cole, Drogba
Liverpool - Reina, Finnan, Hypia, Carragher, Warnock, Gerrard, Alonso, Sissoko, Kewell, Crouch, Fowler

If they are the teams, I would say that this is a very equal game Chelsea are top quality and will cause Liverpool problems out wide where as Liverpool have quality in the middle. The key men for me will be the England duo Joe Cole and Steven Gerrard, if either get on the ball in space they will help win the game for their respective teams.
I would think that neither team will want to open the game up, with both teams having strong counter attacking options, so I would say under 2.5 goals @ 2/5 this isn't very good value however.
The bet I like is Second half most goals @ 11/10, I can see the first half being very tight and the better opportunities coming when the defences might get nervy towards the end.
As for the result I am very tempted by Liverpool @ 13/5 such good value in a game as tight as this is.

West Ham @ 7/4 is my favourite bet, they will be fresh and rejuvinated for this game, the complete opposite to 'Boro and have in my opinion the better team too.

Everton @1/1 not the best value but I do think they will win, as they are still playing well and Brum are very poor in the league.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Everton vs Birmingham
Everton are definately over priced here. They have a good second half of the season record at home, whilst Birmingham have only beaten Sunderland and West Brom away all season in comparison.

Two things worry me about backing Everton.

a) Birmingham have had credible away draws against Liverpool and Wigan since the turn of February. So they are capable of nicking a draw.

b) Birmingham play a little bit like Everton. 100 miles an hour up and at them football. Everton prefer playing teams like Fulham, Arsenal and Man City who all try and play football.

Despite a) and b) though Birmingham's season long rubbish away from home cannot be ignored. With a record of 2-4-11 on their travels there is no way Everton can be 2.34 at home. As usual the trend is that most punters see this as a 'must win' game for Birmingham and that Everton will capitulate as they have nothing to play for. The stats however don't back this theory up as having any bearing on the result of games over the last 20+ years. Because too much money has been placed on Birmingham the price on Everton is artificially high and this makes a bet on the home win a value play with a draw saver to be considered as a contingency.

Selections

Everton @ 2.34 (Betfair) - 2 points
Everton - draw saver - @ 3.45 (Betfair) - 0.60 points

[bromsgrovegreen]

as a regular at st andrews 23-20 everton at hills is some price imo,we are a poor side and with all the injuries i honestly cant see us getting owt at goodison even though they are on a poor run themselves with nothing to play for. the likes of beattie,arteta,cahill should create a few good oppurtunities against us imo

[GETT1NLOTS]

Broms - you can get a hugely better price on the exchanges mate.

2.34 @ Betfair.

[bromsgrovegreen]

cheers gett1n,dunno yet whether i can back against my beloved!!!!

[ONEDUNME]

I know everyone's going to think I'm mad and you don't have to list the reasons why I probably am but, to be honest, 9/1 against a team thats in the relegation zone is just plain stupid. I don't care how shit Sunderland have been and the fact that they haven't won away all season, any team can cause an upset against any other over 90 minutes and with Pompey under pressure and Sunderland free from pressure, I'm happy to take Pompey on, backing the win at 9/1 and the draw at 4/1, both on betfair for small stakes.