SPL Ante Post 2007/08

[kompressaur]

I never saw one about. Thought i'd start a quick one. Any odds worth taking in this 2 team division?

[bluemag]

no komp not worth betting try the english 2 team league man utd or chelsea

[Beanie]

Plenty other markets available:

Without Old Firm:

Hearts 2.60
Aberdeen 3.00
Hibs 8.00
Killie 15.00
DU 34.00
ICT 41.00
Motherwell 41.00
Falkirk 51.00
Gretna 51.00
St Mirren 101.00

Relegation (only Bet365 so far):

Gretna 2.75
St Mirren 3.00
ICT 6.50
Motherwell 7.00
Falkirk 9.00
DU 10.00
etc

Handicap betting(all teams @ 10.00):

Celtic +0
Rangers +5
Hearts +18
Aberdeen +22
Hibs +26
Killie +30
DU +35
Falkirk +40
ICT +45
Motherwell +45
Gretna +45
St Mirren +48

Top Goalscorer:

Boyd 2.75
JVH 5.00
Scott McDonald 7.00
Killen 11.00
Darcheville 13.00
Naismith 15.00
etc

[Beanie]

Will need to wait for more odds to become available but Gretna to be relegated could be the shout at 3.00+ this season. Crowie did a post on exactly why a few weeks ago which I'll dig out later on, and from the signings they've made so far I don't think there's been much to change that opinion.

[WeegieDave]

Possibly a bit biased here, but I quite like the look of Rangers +5 @ 9/1.

Still plenty signing time left for the SPL clubs, but I reckon that might have a bit of value in it.

[Beanie]

Good to see you back Dave

Let's have a little lookie...I'm writing this without too much knowledge of all the comings and goings which I've still to read up on so just a tentative effort for now...these markets are tricky at the best of times.

2006/07

1. Celtic Glasgow 84
2. Glasgow Rangers 72
3. Aberdeen FC 65
4. Hearts of Midlothian 61
5. Kilmarnock FC 55
6. Falkirk FC 50
7. Hibernian 49
8. Caledonian Thistle 46
9. Dundee Utd. 42
10. Motherwell FC 38
11. St. Mirren 36
12. Dunfermline 32

2005/06

1. Celtic Glasgow 91
2. Hearts of Midlothian 74
3. Glasgow Rangers 73
4. Caledonian Thistle 58
5. Hibernian 56
6. Kilmarnock FC 55
7. Aberdeen FC 54
8. Motherwell FC 49
9. Dundee Utd. 33
10. Falkirk FC 33
11. Dunfermline 33
12. Livingston 18

2004/05

1. Glasgow Rangers 93
2. Celtic Glasgow 92
3. Hibernian 61
4. Aberdeen FC 61
5. Hearts of Midlothian 50
6. Kilmarnock FC 49
7. Motherwell FC 48
8. Caledonian Thistle 44
9. Dundee Utd. 36
10. Livingston 35
11. Dunfermline 34
12. Dundee FC 33

etc etc...thats points by the way.

Last couple of seasons the gap between the big 2 and he rest had deffo closed a little...but it has perhaps widened just a tad over the summer again - significant(in an SPL sense) signings by the big two, not much movement from the chasing pack(Hibs getting weaker probably.) Could see a league winning mark of poss 90 points?

So I'll take Hearts/Aberdeen/Hibs out straight away as I can't see them getting within that margin of the top.

Killie have been performing above their station for a couple of seasons now - that's not to say they won't have a good season but to get 60+ this season looks a huge ask...again...can't see it.

DU keep promising a lot and delivering very little..I'm not about to believe that CL being in charge is a new dawn and all that despite decent results at the end of last season. Their re-emergence as a force has been pre-empted time and time again over the last few years and its never materialised...maybe it is this season but I'll not be betting on it.

Falkirk - good strong young side...Latapy is just about finished but they seem to have build an energetic squad around him which should do well this season...+40 could be a touch generous there.

ICT losing Dargo will be a huge loss...should escape releagation but could struggle to even reach last season's points tally.

Cant imagine Motherwell will be as bad as last season - McGhee should have them pointing in the right direction...+45 a bit generous perhaps.

St Mirren and Gretna to struggle badly this season I think...not much hope of breaking 40 points doubt.

Celtic v Rangers...gonna leave this one till I've done more reading, but overall I'm left with...

Celtic +0, Rangers +5, Falkirk +40 and Motherwell +45. Winner from them I think.

[bluemal]

+5 pts rangers got to be the bet of the season , I will have some of that

[WeegieDave]

Good man mal, you know it makes sense.

Good summary Beanie, pretty much agree with that. Not sure about Falkirk myself, but Motherwell +45 could be a decent shout outside the Old Firm. Also a little interested in Hibs tbh, always been outside the +26 on offer, but they seem to be sorting out their defence this season and have added a decent keeper in the form of young Kalambay from Chelsea.

The 2.75 on offer for Gretna to be relegated is decent as well imo. Have been impressed by the signings of Motherwell and St Mirren so far (last years 2 above relegated Dunfermline), and should be able to steer clear with a bit of luck. Think that the SPL journeymen in Gretnas team may finally have met their level and struggle this year, although the Uruguayan lad (Yantoro??) they've signed sounds like a star.

Will look more into it before the big August 4th KO though.

[Beanie]

Hibs beat Bolton 3-0 last night - impressive so says my mate. I was still basking in Livingston's 5-0 spanking of Billingham Synthonia of the Northern League Div 1 so I wasn't paying too much attention, but signs look ok for Hibs.

As you say WD, defensive/goalkeeping signs look good - the area that prevented a stronger showing last season. Scott Brown will be a huge loss though(although being back in for Naismith is interesting...doubt they will get hiim but what a coup if they did.)

Killen is another huge loss - the Hibs season took a bit of a nosedive after his injury.

Fletcher is class for his age and in the not too distant future will be the main man for Scotland - deffo a better prospect than O Connor or Riordan(or atleast given what's happened to Riordan since his move) and perhaps this is the season where Fletch really announces his arrival, and Hibs will prob need him too with the departure of Killen.

Got rid of Sproule and brought in O'Brien, who from what I have heard is faster than Sproule and has a bit more to offer than just pure pace, which is all Sproule really was.

I'm still not won over by John Collins tho - will wait to see who else he brings in with the Scott Brown money, but signs are positive atleast.

[Beanie]

Crowie's post on Gretna from a few months back:

Thing is slick, any team with a wee bit of money behind them could make progress very quickly in Scotland. Gretna were buying SPL players (David Bingham) and paying them good wages on 3 year contracts while they were in Div 3 in Scotland. They were then playing against lads who were on £10 a week at East Stirling and the like.

A lad who used to work with us's mate was playing for E Stirling at the time, he basically worked in an office 9-5 and then had to go and train for playing against the likes of Bingham and other ex SPL players.

You could see how easy it was by the way they cruised through Div 3 and 2 with players basically playing at least a level below where they should be.

However they didn't find it as easy in Div 1 this season and there is another big factor.....the money is drying up. Look behind the scenes and you will see its all hit a wall at the worst possible time for them. They have scrapped their whole youth set up, laid of coaches etc and also emptied some of the higher earners (Bingham, Tosh, Main) out to other clubs. Basically Mileson couldn't afford to keep on bank rolling them this season. If he could have they would have improved their squad this season with a lot more ex SPL players. Instead it was run of the mill signings.

There was a few rumours up here that Gretna didn't want to go up, they couldn't afford to. Obviously all pash but I think they have run out of cash at the worst possible time for them and I think they could be in for a VERY hard season next year.

They won't even be playing at home. They have to play home games at Motherwell, 75 miles away. Their small home support will dwindle even more. They will have to pay Motherwell to use their ground. They are going to try and redevelop their own ground to make it up to SPL standards but thats going to cost. It will be interesting to see who they sign but I couldn't see the current squad staying up.

Overall, it wouldn't surprise me to see Gretna back where they came from, bottom division, in a few years, if it goes as badly as I expect it will next season. The close season will be interesting to see who they bring in and who leaves.

[slick]

I've also just took some of Rangers @ 10's +5 bet365, Just watched them against Chelsea and they are in with a chance of the SPL on the level never mind the handicap.

Walter Smith has assembled a decent side and they look quite strong defensively, his new signings also look quite impresssive and all he needs is for one of his strikers to hit it off and they are well in with a chance.
i didnt even realise he has signed Marcus de Beasley, he'll do well well for the gers as he never stops running and is a good link up man for the forwards, he can also score which no doubt Smith bought him for.

I thinks Smiths main problem will be team selection now he has so many players to choose from, Having Carol in nets will also be a bonus as he packs experience now and looks confident.

Good shout Weegie as its a cracking bet.

[Wayne]

Go on then. I'll have a little nibble of it too. Just so I can be part of the Rangers +5 gang.

[slick]

Welcome aboard Wayne , you never know if Rangers get off to a flyer we may even get a nice little chrimbo payout as some bookies like a little free publicity by paying out early.

[slick]

The only downfall I see is Crowie getting on our backs as we all become Gers fans for the season

[munkimafia]

Does anybody know who won the handicap league last year ?

I think there is a big temptation in this kind of bet to look at Rangers + 5 vs Celtic and see that as a good bet (which I would agree with) without paying attention to the teams who will finish below the old firm.Most years there will be an spl team who perform well above expectations and that for me is the big danger in this kind of bet.I agree with Beanie and think there may be a bit of value in Motherwell as I do not believe they can do anything but improve with McGhee at the helm