3rd Eviction

[Beanie]

Any thoughts?

I suppose it's high time for a twist but they are near impossible to account for...Jen's odds look pretty generous to me as I don't see her beating anyone at all if she is up.

Anyway, nominations...

Firstly the one group - Bex/Dale/Jen/Luke/Stu...all are v likely to vote for Rex, almost without question. Some will vote for Mo, others might realise that after the spitting incident they would maybe be best to leave him out this week. So I'm gonna say Mo won't be up this week. So the few other votes could go in a few directions - Darnell in danger of a vote from Luke/Rebecca/Jen etc.

Let's say then that those noms end up with Rex 5, Darnell 3, Mo 2, roughly.

Onto the opposite group of Darnell, Rex and Mo.

Darnell should go for Jen and Luke...Dale has done plenty work on the other HMs to avoid too many nominations so he should be safe this week. Mo will go for Stu and Dale I think, no love lost there. Rex should also be fairly predictable, altho Bex's recent rants might get her a nom rather than the likely Jen and Dale. I'll plump for Bex and Jen.

So that would leave:

Rex 5
Darnell 3
Mo 2
Jen 2
Dale 1
Stu 1
Luke 1
Bex 1

Onto the middle men, the important ones!

Rachel - she's anti-Luke but given her disagreements with Bex this week I think she'll let him be for a week and go for Jen and Bex. As I say, I dont think many will go for Dale, and just be satisfied with going for Jen at the moment, as I think most(wrongly) see Dale as v popular on the outside and not one you'd want to face in a vote. Again, Bex's performance over the last few days will get the votes of the trio of Mikey, Mario, and Lisa, who didn't like her anyway. Those three likely to all go the same way I think, but that's not 100%. Bex definately, but Lisa might not go for Jen with her second.

That means...

Jen 6?
Rex 5
Bex 5
Darnell 3
Mo 2
Dale 1
Stu 1
Luke 1

That leaves Kat - who is tricky but she went for Jen last week so should do so again. Not sure about her other.

Whatever happens, Jen goes if she's up as I say, and it looks to me like she'll be up.

I'll be having a saver on Rebecca too as she's imploding quickly - Rex is only gone if up against neither of those two, and that looks impossible to me.

4pts Jen @ 3.75
1pt Rebecca @ 7.00(Corals)

[mrmuzeman]

Here are my nom predictions, most I feel quite confidently about but for a few I just cant decide the 2nd nommo so have an option of two

Dale - Mo/Rex
Jen - Rex + Darnell/Mo
Luke - Mo/Rex
Rebecca - Rex + Darnell/Mo
Stu - Mo/Rex

Darnell - Jen + Luke/Rebecca
Mo - Dale/Stu
Rex - Dale/Rebecca

Lisa - Jen/Rebecca
Mario - Jen/Rebecca
Mikey - Jen/Rex

Kathreya - Jen/Rebecca
Rachel - Jen/Luke/Rebecca (could be any 2, no preference)

So that makes up the following (brackets for maybe nommos)

Rex - 6
Jen - 5 +(1)
Rebecca - 4 +(2)
Mo - 3 +(2)
----------------
Dale - 2
Stu - 1
Darnell - (2)
Luke - (2)

On that evidence....

- I have Rex definitely being up.

- Pretty much 50/50 split between Jen joining him or both Jen AND Rebecca joining him for a 3 way eviction.

- All 3 'maybe nommos' (involving Jen and Rebecca) would have to go in Jen's favour for Rebecca to be up and NOT Jen. It is unlikely to be a Rex/Rebecca eviction but a small chance.

- I can pretty much rule out Mo being up as absolutely everything would have to go wrong on the 'maybe nommo' front for him to be up, which is mega unlikely. And in any case, it is a guarantee Jen would also be up also.

[mrmuzeman]

I would agree with what you say Beanie, that if Jen is up shes likely to be a gonner. I estimate (using my nommo predictions and easy math) theres an 83% chance of Jen being up for eviction, so your odds you got of 11/4 look fantastic as shes probably around a 1/2 shot to actually be evicted.

However, here is ammunition to use against Rex I feel if they want to edit him negatively. Things like that remark bascially calling Rebecca fat to her face in a snidey way from last night spring to mind. Women wont like that.

A 3 way eviction would be more interesting, although you do feel that if it comes to that Jen would go over Rebecca, as shes more the type women/girls would vote against youd think.

The odds are suspended at the moment unfortunately, dont know why, but ill be backing Jennifer at anything higher than evens I reckon if its about. I wont bet odds on though incase Big Brother fcuk about with it all as they want to keep the current house rift going (keeping Jen would be an easy way to do this).

[trickrick]

Some shrewd picks it seems there Beanie.. Last night's edit was pretty much the Rebbeca show, and to be fair it didnt paint her in any great light. To be honest, if it was Rebecca v Jen I would definately take Rebecca to go.. She offers nothing in the House, apart from basically drumming up support against Rex. Crude and rough, she is a pretty dire individual, whereas Jen - if nothing else seems much more balanced (even if playing a game), and as a single mum from the north east will get some sympathy. Can't see Rex going even if he does make a few daft comments. He seems to be calm and collected even though he is public enemy number one in the House at the moment.

For me, it's Rebecca out if she is up for eviction..

[mrmuzeman]

Totesport seem to be the only ones around with odds this morning, ive checked on their site a few times in the last hour. Rebeccas been shortening constantly, I guess they must really be taking money on her. Went down to 5/2 and just now 15/8 favourite.

Jens holding steady at 5/2, thats where my moneys gone.

Editing could play a big part if both women are up

[Beanie]

Betfair always suspend betting at midnight on Sunday now, and don't open again till after nominations are announced - they could keep it open longer of course as nominations are only this afternoon but after complaints about people in the know hoovering the markets they just suspend early and leave it at that.

Good to see some bookies open up with prices on a Monday morning tho.

Lisa was 100s on Betfair - really should have taken a few quid on that as there's always the possible twist of a 'vote to save' involving everyone which BB like to throw in from time to time to kick out a bit of dead wood, and she's probably go in that event.

[stereoman]

Huh. I never noticed Totesport had odds before. Didn't know Coral Eurobet had any either. I assumed theyed all given up and that it was just Betfair who had any odds before the nominations were announced.



Fool's errand on behalf of Totesport to keep their odds up until 9:01pm tonight...might be worth keeping an eye on those odds in case certain folks have their odds cut because someone in the know (cough cough, Endemol) puts a bet on this afternoon/evening.

If Rebecca's up for nomination I can see folks just voting to get her out because she keeps getting her breasts out...which would be fine if she was a looker but she ain't!

Polls over on Digital Spy and Big Brother Online suggest if Jennifer's up for the vote she's out. Could merely be ramping though.

[Beanie]

BB are generally using the jail as punishment for nominations chat this year which is good news - Luke has been put in jail this morning so he will perhaps not get to vote today, but otherwise it looks like a straighforward procedure(fingers crossed.)

[trickrick]

Well I've stuck a bet on Rebecca to go at 15/8.. Didnt realise I hadnt got an online account with Totesport, but as there was a local shop I popped in.. Hmmm..Something slightly uncomfortable about asking the counter for prices on Big Brother next eviction market..

Still...

Rebecca next eviction - 4 pt stake @ 15/8 (Totesport)

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Odds on totesport as they right now:



Looks like Jennifer vs Rebecca for this week's eviction but what's driven the price of Jennifer into 'evens' from 2/1?

[trickrick]

Surely Rex has to be nominated as well?

Hmmm..I seem to be missing the point with Jennifer as it appears everywhere else she is pretty much despised and tipped to go.. Must admit the 250/1 odds on her to win the outright on Betfair tells me a lot !

Oh well..

[stereoman]

I suppose there's every chance that Rex will be nominated. I was merely making an assumption.

Jennifer into 6/4 ON now to be evicted on Friday. WHAT!?

[mrmuzeman]

Well thats no surprise to me her price should come in imo, I said she should be 1/2 last night so the price now of 4/6 looks more realistic. She better be up

[trickrick]

Its looking good for Jen backers..

Must admit I never saw this one.. Should have read more of the BB forums to realise the hatred she has generated.. Buggar... Oh well..Live and learn..

[mrmuzeman]

We dont even know whose up yet Trick

Theres a rumour that Rebecca has cut up Mo's belt? Duno if its true or not but shes doing the best to hang herself if it is