Outright betting

[Beanie]

Agreed on Mikey, I too am regretting laying him off(altho given that I replaced him with Rex, there's no damage done there.) He's having a lot of good shows these days - I did think that BB wouldn't like him as a winner(open to easy criticism that he is a weak winner that was only triumphant because of his disability) but they are editing him favourably, he's not gonna get nommed, and seems to be gaining a lot of momentum. Need a full rethink after this weeks eviction.

[Beanie]

Laying my Rex bet off for 2pts profit @ 8.00 after the news his gf is going in.

[Beanie]

Rex drifting like a barge at the mo - BB have really scuppered his chances and cost themselves a great housemate.

Hate to do this after having her in the can't win pile...but with Rex in trouble, Kat still heammoraging support, Darnell getting himself in a tailspin with Sara, Mikey gathering momentum iin everything but the polls and a very short price, Stu and Dale threatening to leave/wanting to go every 2 days, and Lisa imploding...the only one I can see without a clear negative is Rachel.

The support for Rex seems to have Rachel as a 2nd fav in a lot of cases, not sure why, but she should be the main benefactor of his troubles. Add in a big show for her tonight(nice sacrifice on the messages from home/diary room tears) and her price should shorten for a little while yet.

I'd also agree wiith Rex/Luke that she is a bit of an actress in the house...she clearly upped her game after Rex saw her VT, and I think we'll see that continue as the end draws nearer.

3pts Rachel @ 9.00

[Snodser]

Beanie, just a quick Q..............do you do this for the "gains" or do you actually enjoy it?????????????.

Just asking as to for me I'd prefer water torture!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mrmuzeman]

Beanie has a sick love for it I can tell. I know this cos I also share this illness

[Beanie]

The easy answer would be to say that if I wasn't betting on it then I wouldn't be watching it, and that's 100% true.

Having said that tho, given that I bet on it, it's surprisingly addictive whereby you hang on every word an action of some nobody that you would otherwise not even recognise in the street. Sick Love is definately right.

I'm working at home at the moment which makes it nice and easy to always have a news page open, or forum window, or replay of last nights highlights but I draw the line at the live feed - that would just be saaaaaaa-aaaaaaaaaad.

Withdrawal symptoms kick in in early September when horrified sufferers find reruns of Location Location Location when flicking on C4 at 9pm, but can be cancelled out by healthy doses of X Factor and a few stiff gulps of I'm A Celeb.

[Beanie]

Another big show coming up for Rachel tomorrow night - buying back the suitcases and more importantly a vid from her family and half sister who she's never met - nicely timed by BB to be the final highlight on the Eviction show - she's certainly had more than a helpful shove from the producers this week.

On that note, so has Mikey, and he could really canter away with this sometime soon(and I hope he does.) I did initially think that a blind winner would be a disaster for BB(far too easy for outsiders to criticise a sympathy winner) but he's a cracking housemate, pretty funny, and brilliantly vulgar and non pc. Good lad.

He's currently under 3/1 and isn't polling much more than 5-10% in most online polls - if he carries on the momentum which BB are helping with, and we actually see some support in the polls, then it wont be long before we have our first odds on housemate.

[trickrick]

Well you go away for a couple of weeks, and it's all change in the HOuse...

Rex's price plummets at a lead balloon pace, his chick enters the House, and Mikey and Rachel are the big risers in the Markets.... And Dale has gone ? Interesting...

I'm surprised at the Lisa and Stuart prices as well as they have shortened somewhat..

To be fair I did anticipate a Rachel after the audition tape situation, and I reacted accordingly, but she must have done something special since then..? Mikey was also gathering a bit of momentum as I was going away and this has obviously continued as he is now favourite.. Apologies for the aftereventing, but I did place bets on Mikey on the morning I went away taking 8.6 and 9.2 on Betfair. He is now a positive on my Betfair markets, although not a massive one.. I have reluctantly laid off Rex, as I get vibe through his price crash that his chances are smoke now his missus has entered..How to destroy the chances of someone in one foul swoop

So...I have no feel whatsoever of what is happening in the programme, and I'm not sure how I can really involve myself now having missed two weeks.. Maybe I can get a feel after watching it a couple of days.. However getting financially involved again isnt probably the best idea. So..my position is, in order of green balance on Betfair..

Rachel
Darnell
Mikey

Rex is a break even

Big Losers..

Kat
Lisa
Stuart

[Beanie]

You have a good hol trick?

It's my turn to head off for a while now - I've levelled up my positions a little as my +s on Mikey, Kat(not entirely sure how I ended up with that tho(!)) and Rachel were fairly extreme, as were the -ves against most of the others, which isn't a good position when you can't manage it for 10 days. A lot can happen in just a short week as we saw with Rex recently, so I'm back to decent results on Rachel and Mikey, break evens on Kat, Stu and Rex, and poor results on the rest.

My reading of what might happen over the next little while would be that there seems to be a definite split forming in the house...Mikey and Lisa are the main members of one side, and Darnell, Kat, Rex, Nicole etc on the other. There's splits within each group, but they appear to be the main blocks.

Stuart is a good mediator in the divide I think, so if he goes this week things could get a lot more edgy. Rachel will be the new natural peacemaker in all that, but not sure that's a good thing. The overall beneficiary will be Mikey I think - led by Rex the entire group are now finding it a lot easier to have a go at him, and without many allies and a lot of people attacking him(Darnell and Kat starting now, turning on others just as Luke predicted) mass sympathy will naturally follow.

I read a very good point on Mikey's situation, which is that the producers have to be very favourable with their edits towards him. BB does pantomime villains very very well, and has no problems setting vile characters up for public humiliation when they leave. Mikey isn't the nicest character and has a lot of habiits which could easily turn him into a very disliked person - and if Mikey were to get anywhere near any sort of public disfavour then BB would be on very shaky ground - releasing a blind person into a society that is anything other than supportive would be trouble for the future of the show. They can't risk anything like that and so if he begins to get into any serious clashes in the house, I can't see him coming off worst. I've not written that too well but the gist is there.

Darnell's relationship with Sara is looking like a timebomb to me - it could turn out well for his chances of winning but I've got my doubts.

[Beanie]

Should have mentioned in terms of the house split, that while the sympathy on the outside would increase Mikey's chances of winning, the split on the inside would of course increase his chances of nomination/eviction.

[trickrick]

Well I've managed to get back into the swing of things..

Although I laid off Rex a while ago, I have decided to make a move on him again by taking 22's.. His personality seems to have shined through again and hopefuly Nicole leaving this week will aid his chances..

I have decided to take Kat as well at 8.8's. Not because she is particularly doing a lot, but she is probably at her highest odds ever and I still feel she has a chance of getting to the end..

So in some respects I am trying to avoid major damage.. I now have Rex (again) as my biggest winner followed by Darnell and Mikey.. Rachel is also a small winner, but although she is flying high in the polls I just cannot see her winning. Kat is also a small winner at the moment as well..

No-one else should come close. Lisa is flirting around the 11's mark which is ridiculous as she doesnt have a prayer..

Nicole throws her last throw of the dice in the diary room by talking about Rex's infidelity and initiating the waterworks...

Oh hum..Not long to go !

[Beanie]

Twist tonight(wednesday) - nominations infront of each other(bad news for Sara and Lisa I suspect as they are the 'easy' choices(least friendships) unless someone falls on their sword.) The 2 nominees then play jeapardy for 50k, with the eviction still going ahead as normal on Friday.

Winning 50k will as per usual be the death knell for that persons hopes of winning the show - could be good for the loser but they'll still be facing an eviction on Friday.

Darnell's implosion is complete - he could still turn it round but is just too self destructive. Rex looks like he will survive to the positive vote and he's still the big player in the house, so can count on a strong vote in the last week. It all just depends on people like Mikey/Rachel etc - its in their hands if they have a strong, high exposure, and fun filled last week.

Those 3 appear to me to be BBs chosen ones, so there's an open goal waiting for any of the 3, they just need to stick it in the net, and given everyone this year has been scooping it over from 6 yards thats not a certainty.

[Beanie]

Darnell's situation is fairly hard to watch - he's my fav housemate and I'm willing him to turn it round, but while the situation is saveable, Darnell isn't the guy to do it. He's got psychological problems that are too deep rooted to allow him to read these things rationally - it's been written by some far more qualified phsychologists that his behaviour is a kind of self harm, that the only way he can deal with rejection/defeat is to be able to rationalise that it was his fault, and so he deliberately sabotages his own chances.

Unfortunately, tonight's face to face noms are at a really bad time for him - if the format is as expected, then urging others to vote for him looks likely - it's just an extension of the above whereby he doesn't want to have to have to entertain the possibility of being nominated for any other reason than something within his control. Telling others to nom him achieves that - hopefully the others don't pay any attention(and that's from a big red position on him.)

Given the weakness of the others, this situation is saveable and even more could still turn into a penalty kick for Darnell if he were to play it correctly, but nothing that's happened over the last 12 weeks has suggested to me that he's in remotely the right frame of mind to get anywhere near doing so.

Unfortunately, the viewing public won't discern any difference between his outbursts and someone like Alex's(or atleast the forums at the moment don't show much difference) when to me they look a million miles apart, and if up he could be in for some pretty brutal treatment on Friday, when that, and a reality freakshow as a whole, is the last thing he needs at the moment.

[Bigkegman]

I've not bet on this and probably won't but this series is the one i've been following the most and it's grown on me.

How funny was it the other day when Mikey got skelpt with the ball of string on the back of the neck.......... I kid you not my sides where splitting.

As to who will win..........

I think Rex is a really good housemate - only problem is the rest of the housemates don't know when he is being serious or kidding

Darnell - he's in love with Sara and thats thrown out his chances
Sara - no chance - not in the original crowd
Mikey - says it exactly how he sees it (you know what i mean) - big chance

Rachel - quite like her as well although she tends not to tell people exactly what she thinks

Lisa - sits on the fence too much and doesn't tend to get involved

Kat - pain in the bottom as far as i'm concerned but fans may vote for her

Mo - now through to next weeks final and although he's greedy mo - I think he's been pretty good


I would like to see Rex or Mo win it but I think Mikey will get the votes.

1st Mikey
2nd Kat

[Beanie]

Yup, in the year of such big negatives against all other runners, it's Mikey's to lose now. He's a bit of a warts and all character but as the most entertaining housemate he's clean through with only the keeper to beat.

What a complete fuck up tonights live show was! Sara v Lisa and they introduce the prisoner's dilemma, except it wasn't as there were other factors at work(friendship/communication/risk of loss of reputation live on telly with an eviction coming up/share being exactly half of the total - needs to be less than half to make it workable in this scenario) which make the whole exercise completely pointless.

What we thought was gonna be a dramatic live show was a mere procession, you wouldn't even have got 1.01 on the two of them sharing...all it achieves is buggering the chances of the two of them(not that that's a bad thing for my book mind )